Tuesday Open Thread [5.27.14]

That’s a real sign, not a fake one you often see on the Internet. An Anglican priest from Australia put up the sign in response to the conservative government in Australia. In America, support for marriage equality has increased yet again in the Gallup poll to 55%.

WEST VIRGINIA–SENATE–Charleston Daily Mail: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 49, Sec. of State Natalie Tennant (D) 38.

GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–Rasmussen: Jason Carter (D) 48, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 41.

OREGON–SENATE–Rasmussen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 47, Monica Wehby (R) 37.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATE–Vox Populi: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Fmr. Mass. Senator Scott Brown (R) 35; Shaheen (D) 45; Fmr. NH Senator Bob Smith (R) 34.

MISSISSIPPI–SENATE–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Citizens United Political Victory Fund*: Chris McDaniel (R) 43, Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 39.

*- Take this poll with a mine of salt. Though if McDaniel wins, it does put Mississippi in play for a Democratic Pickup. Shocking, I know.

NEW YORK–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 57, Rob Astorino (R) 28.

IOWA–SENATE–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Public Policy Polling: Crazy person Joni Ernst (R) 34, Mark Jacobs (R) 18, Sam Clovis (R) 14 and Mark Whitaker (R) 6.

WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–Marquette Law School Poll: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 46, Mary Burke (D) 46

GEORGIA–SENATE–Rasmussen: Michelle Nunn (D) 47, Jack Kingston (R) 41; Nunn 45, David Perdue (R) 42.

Like Booman, I am optimistic about the Senate in the fall. As you saw above, West Virginia, despite its history of electing Democrats to statewide office and then voting GOP for president, looks to be dark red, as does South Dakota with popular former Governor Mike Rounds seeking a promotion. So there are two seats gone. Democrats have 55 seats right now. So we are down to 53.

Booman is pessimistic about Montana. I’m not. Montana is now what West Virginia was then, a state that mysteriously likes its Democrats statewide, despite voting GOP in presidential years. It has two Democratic Senators now (Jon Tester and Walsh) and has had two Democratic Governors over the last 10 years (Schweitzer and now Bullock).

The rest of the battleground toss up states are being defended very well by the incumbent Democrats. Kay Hagan in North Carolina. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. Mark Begich in Alaska. Mark Pryor in Arkansas. All lead and have lead their Republican challengers consistently, and sometimes by significant margins. In the “on the margin” races (i.e. races that could become competitive and we should keep on eye on), Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire, the Democrats are in good shape there too.

You saw those Rasmussen polls out of Georgia right? I think the Democrats are going to win both Georgia and Kentucky. So that means the Democrats would be back up to 55 seats. That’s pretty damn good for what the punditry all call a horrible year.