No more titles with Republican Shutdown and Default Apocalypse references. Ah, it is so nice to get back to polling and random political stories and tidbits, at least for a while.
Last night, as you know, Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) was elected to the U.S. Senate over teabagger Steve Lonegan in New Jersey. This is a pickup for the Democrats, who increase their Senate majority to 55.
This exchange between Anderson Cooper and GOP Strategist Alex Castellanos was, shall we say, interesting:
ANDERSON COOPER: Alex, you don’t want to admit this, but you actually agree with Paul [Begala] that [GOP threats to default] is not the way to go about it, to risk the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
ALEX CASTELLANOS: I think it’s a terrible idea. I think the Republicans are going to pay a big price in the short-term. A friend explained to me today finally what Ted Cruz is doing. And I finally understand. He’s having bunny sex.
COOPER: Wow. This is the late-night edition of 360. (CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: In nature, there are boom-and-bust cycles. The snowshoe hare every 10 years multiplies sixfold.
COOPER: Are you high? What are you talking about?
Soooooo Ted Cruz is just running around DC humping everything in sight…. ah still don’t see the analogy.
Ann Coulter in this week’s aware for unintentional irony: “The problem is we have hucksters, shysters, and people ripping off the Republican Party for their own self-aggrandizement, for their own egos, to make money.” That was Ann Coulter, while appearing on the Sean Hannity, to hawk her new book. I agree with you Ann. You are the problem.
It was over. They lost.
On Wednesday, those two ugly facts began to sink in among the House’s hard-core conservatives. For nearly three years, they had effectively led the House itself — drawing their power from the intimidating sense that they were capable of anything. They often compared themselves to William Wallace, the Scottish rebel who (at least in the movies) succeeded because he refused to compromise.
But then — just like in the movies — Braveheart died.
Based on last night’s vote, in terms of coalitions in the House, Nancy Pelosi controls 198 votes, Ted Cruz controls 144 and John Boehner controls 87.
POLLING GOODNESS!!! It has been a while.
NATIONAL–OBAMACARE–Democracy Corps: Just 38% now clearly oppose the Affordable Care Act.
“While likely voters divide evenly on the plan, 8% oppose the law because it does not go far enough. As a result, just 38% oppose the law because it is big government.”
Another key finding: By 58% to 38%, voters say lawmakers should implement and fix the law rather than repeal it.
As has always been the case, it is misleading when you report who on just what percentage generally disapproves of the law. For that percentage includes those who want a public option, or single payer, of some other program that goes beyond what the ACA provides. Further, that percentage also includes those who are just fucking dumb, in that they will readily say they oppose Obamacare, but then say they just love the Affordable Care Act and all it does.
SOUTH DAKOTA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Former Governor Mike Rounds (R) 40; Rick Weiland (D) 34, with Libertarian Kurt Evans at 11%.
I would assume that this is the anti-GOP affect of the Shutdown that is making this a closer race than it should be. Rounds is a popular former Governor in South Dakota, and Weiland is just a former congressional staffer. South Dakota was almost universally expected to be a GOP pickup next year. But if the GOP is in trouble in South Dakota, that spells doom for them everywhere.
NATIONAL–TEABAGGER DISAPPROVAL–Pew Research: The Tea Party “is less popular than ever, with even many Republicans now viewing the movement negatively. Overall, 49% of the public has an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party, while 30% have a favorable opinion.”
“The Tea Party’s favorability rating has fallen across most groups since June, but the decline has been particularly dramatic among moderate and liberal Republicans. In the current survey, just 27% of moderate and liberal Republicans have a favorable impression of the Tea Party, down from 46% in June.”
Stu Rothenberg: “Last week I observed that I hadn’t yet seen ‘compelling evidence’ that a Democratic political wave could be developing. I can no longer say that after seeing the recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.”
MICHIGAN–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Gary Peters (D) 43, Terri Lynn Land (R) 36.
Voters [in Michigan] are opposed to the shutdown by a 65/27 margin, and when voters are informed that Peters stood against the shutdown in the House his lead expands to 50/36
IOWA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 45, Generic Republican 41.
Voters [in Iowa] are against the shutdown 64/27, and when voters are informed of Braley’s opposition his lead goes up to 7 points at 46/39.
LOUISIANA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 48, Bill Cassidy (R) 41.
Voters [in LA] oppose the shutdown 60/30, and 47% say they’re less likely to vote for Cassidy for the Senate next year because he supported it compared to only 32% who are more likely to. Landrieu’s lead grows to 52/42 when voters are informed of Cassidy’s position on the shutdown.
ARKANSAS–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 41.
Voters [in Arkansas] there oppose the shutdown 59/32. When informed that Cotton supported it, 45% of voters say they’re less likely to support him for a move up to the Senate next year compared to just 33% who say they’re more likely to.
GEORGIA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Michelle Nunn (D) 42, Generic Republican 42.
In Georgia voters oppose the shutdown 61/31[.] The shutdown will be particularly problematic for the GOP if it nominates one of the House members seeking a promotion to the Senate- 47% of voters say they’re less likely to vote Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, or Jack Kingston for the Senate because of their support for the shutdown to only 32% who think it’s a positive. After being informed that her most likely opponents were among those House Republicans who favored the shutdown, Nunn improves to a 48/42 lead lead on the generic ballot.
NORTH CAROLINA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 47, Generic Republican 42.
Voters oppose the government shutdown 63/29, and when they’re informed that she opposed it as well her lead over a generic opponent increases to 49/41.