Who is more likley to get primaried by a legitimate contender?

Filed in National by on December 15, 2012

The poll to the right of this post is dead even. 15 to 14. I guess a more interesting question would be; who is more likely to announce a primary challenge to Coons or Carney in a mere 16 or so months?

We know the strength of the Dem bench,… Markell, Denn, Flowers, Biden, Biden (Joe). Who am I forgetting? Who is legitimate, but a dark horse?

The Democratic primary IS the election nowadays.

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Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (20)

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  1. puck says:

    Nobody is going to out-bipartisan either of them. So look for someone who is a reasonable but clearly Democratic thinker. I can’t think of anyone who is articulating that kind of position right now, except for a few newcomers like Townsend and Paradee. Anybody with more experience has cut their teeth in the Castle era and wouldn’t challenge the Establishment at all or if they did, would be running on the crossing-the-aisle schtick.

    Also, either one of them (Carney especially) could be vulnerable to a strong challenge by unions who might be wondering “What have you done for us lately?”

  2. X Stryker says:

    Neither, in all likelihood.

  3. geezer says:

    Coons is far more vulnerable, as he still has his tax record at NCCo Exec to drag around. And if you win that election, you serve for six years. Why challenge for a House seat when winning a Senate seat would be just as easy?

  4. puck says:

    Coons should be more worried about his tax record in the Senate.

  5. Dana Garrett says:

    I used to think Coons might get primaried by Beau Biden, but I heard from a good source that he was thinking about running for Governor.

  6. geezer says:

    Dana: That would be in ’16, and he could do it without risking his day job, assuming he runs for and wins re-election in ’14.

    It would also set him on a collision course with Matt Denn.

  7. geezer says:

    Puck: If Coons were worried about being primaried by a populist, yes. But no Democrat capable of beating him is going to run against corporate interests. Delaware’s business model is built on corporate whoring. It’s who we are.

    Which sets me to wondering: Who’s the most liberal person Delaware has ever sent to Congress?

  8. JConnor says:

    Harris B. McDowell, Jr

  9. puck says:

    Caesar Rodney.

  10. geezer says:

    That would set the high-water mark of Delaware’s liberalism in 1967. And how liberal was a pro-Vietnam Democrat, anyway?

    My point, Puck, is that it’s unlikely you’ll live to see an actual liberal sent to Congress from Delaware.

  11. puck says:

    I didn’t expect we would. It wasn’t me who brought up a hypothetical primary.

    But we can at least keep pointing out we are represented by Blue Dogs. If we want to elect an actual traditional Democrat, we will need to wait until Democrats no longer remember Mike Castle. Or Tom Carper for that matter.

    I never thought I would say this, but our economic success for the next decade is all up to Obama’s leadership now. We certainly can’t count on our bipartisan delegation to lead us out of the Republican fever swamp.

  12. Dana Garrett says:

    I wonder what it would taken to induce Bernie Sanders to move to Delaware.

  13. No, Senator Coons is up next election. He finished out the Biden term elected in 2008. AG Biden cannot risk his job by challenging him. I am with Dana that Governor makes more sense.

  14. hmmm says:

    Wait a minute here. Are you guys calling Coons a Blue dog Dem? Yes he may not be where he should be on financial issues… But Coons as a Blue Dog? That’s umm interesting…

    He’s most certainly on the left leaning part of the Democratic caucus. But you all have to complain about something… so carry on.

  15. jim center says:

    Hi Dana,
    I’ve never given a penny to any of these faux-democrat DE politicians, but I’ve consistently given money to Bernie.
    I’ve got my “Friends of Bernie” bumper sticker on my Hybrid!

  16. jason330 says:

    “Are you guys calling Coons a Blue dog Dem? ” I’m not. In a lot of ways Coons has distinguished himself as a true blue Dem – not a blue dog Dem. It is the corporatist devotion to failed tax policy that I don’t like.

  17. puck says:

    Here’s the Wikipedia definition of Blue Dog ideology for what it’s worth. With the exception of social conservatism, it is a pretty accurate description of Coons, Carney, and Carper:

    Ideology

    Blue Dogs purport to have an agenda that protects the interests of the vulnerable while also respecting traditional cultural values and keeping taxes low. Others, including fellow members of the Democratic Party, have questioned the veracity of this mission statement.

    The Blue Dog Coalition is often involved in searching for a compromise between liberal and conservative positions. The Blue Dogs are viewed by some as a continuation of the socially conservative wing of the Democratic party, however, the only stated policy position of the Blue Dogs is fiscal conservatism.

    Despite the Blue Dogs’ differing degrees of economic and social conservatism, they claim they generally work to promote positions within the House of Representatives that bridge the gap between right-wing and left-wing politics. Blue Dogs are an important swing vote on spending bills and as a result have gained influence in Congress out of proportion to their numbers. They are frequently sought after to broker compromises between the Democratic and Republican leadership, generally lending a more centrist character to US politics.

    We haven’t really had many votes that tested the “swing vote” theory. Note that Coons didn’t need to be a swing vote for the 2010 tax cut extension, because the Democratic President himself was promoting a blue dog position.

    Carper’s swing vote is well known from his blue-doggy committee work on health care.

  18. jason330 says:

    “fiscal conservatism…” if only there was such a thing. “Failed tax policy devotees” would be more accurate.

  19. hmmm says:

    Puck,
    Carper and Carney, sure they play the middle of the road. But just because coons is more friendly to the banks (read:one policy issue) than other dems, does not a blue dog make. Coons is consistently in the local and national media, pushing progressive issues. Something Carper and Carney are not.

    I like all three of them. But Coons is not a moderate (even if he likes to play one in Delaware).

  20. puck says:

    We’ll need to see some more votes registered. Coons’s vote to extend tax cuts on the rich fits the blue dog narrative, and for me at least Coons needs to redeem himself from that. Obama is well on the way to redeeming himself for it.

    I can’t envision any of them bucking Obama, so it’s all up to Obama’s leadership and where he leads Democrats.

    Until then I’ve got to go on rhetoric alone. And none of them (C, C, and C) is putting his shoulder to the wheel to help the President with his very Democratic position in the cliff negotiations. They are falling all over themselves to offer up entitlement cuts. I haven’t heard anything full-throated from them about protecting the safety net.

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