So you thought that since the election was over that the Polling Report would cease to exist? You thought you were rid of me? Muwhahahaha! Never. You see, polling never goes away. It merely takes little breaks. It’s true, the Polling Report will appear less frequently than before. I think I will start off on a weekly basis and see how that goes. But when I get a pile of polling news, I will post a polling report. Now, the polling we report can be on the 2013 state gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, the 2014 Midterm congressional election and gubernatorial elections, or the 2016 presidential primaries.
But before we do that, let’s look at some analysis of the ultimate 2012 poll, i.e. the election, showed.
First, let’s look at the final Polling Report map with all the color coded margins. For example, California and Illinois were listed as Strong Obama states and colored dark blue while Utah and Oklahoma were Strong Romney states and colored dark red or maroon. The lighter the color of the state, the closer the race was going to be, and thus you see the toss ups states (as they were referred to in the media but not here) were Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. You also see a lot or red and blue, rather than dark red and dark blue, as the polling found those races to have a candidate leading between 5-10 points.
Now take a look at this map:
This map reflects the actual election results. Dark Blue and Dark Red show states where Obama and Romney, respectively, won the race by 10 points or more. Notice the absence of 5-10 point lead categories, and the presence of dark blue and dark red. Indeed, if you are a red state, chances are you are dark red.
STRONG ROMNEY: Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska (4 EC); North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana, South Carolina.
LEAN and SLIM ROMNEY: Missouri, Nebraska (2nd CD), North Carolina, and Georgia.
You know what that tells me? Well, we know that Missouri can be a swing state, as it has swung before. Indeed, before the first debate debacle, when the President was cruising towards a landslide, we here were talking about some close polls about a Missouri that showed it was possible that it could fall to the Prez if this thing turned into a rout. Well, it didn’t. But in such a polarized year, when the red states became really red, that Missouri remain relatively get-able in the end shows that it will be up for grabs in an open race, especially if our nominee is Hillary Clinton. And Georgia. Hmmmm.
Kavips is right, as always:
As of today Obama’s lead stands at more than 3.4 million votes – a victory margin a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t posted since George H.W. Bush in 1988. The final results show Warren soundly beating Scott Brown by 8 percent. Virginia! Tim Kaine ultimately won by 6 percent (over 186,000 votes). Meanwhile, President Obama won the state by 3 percent. The Montana Senate race wasn’t called until late Wednesday morning, but the final tally has Democrat Jon Tester beating Republican Denny Rehberg by 4 percent! In Montana! Today the story is of a Democratic House of Representative’s pickup. Democrats have already gained 6 House seats and are leading in 4 of 5 uncalled races. It was no where near as close as election night pundits led us to believe.
And here is a county by county map that shows that. The bluer the county, the larger the Obama lead, and vice versa: the redder the county the larger the Romney lead. Look at all the blue.
Send that map to your conservative idiot friends. It might be the thing to finally drive them over the edge.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds most Americans support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, 57% to 39%, an issue that may be gaining traction in Congress in the aftermath of the elections. Meanwhile, 51% support gay marriage, slightly more than half for the fifth time straight in ABC/Post polls since March 2011.
Chuck Todd at First Read on how the Republicans got crushed on the issues too:
“For all the talk about how Mitt Romney and the Republicans lost when it came to demographics, the turnout, and the tactics, the exit polls also show that they lost when it came to the issues.”
“For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week’s presidential election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax rates shouldn’t increase for anyone.”
“What’s more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should legally recognize same-sex marriage.”
“It’s certainly true that 51 percent (rounding up from 50.5) to 48 percent is close, but since the end of World War II, five elections have been closer. Mitt Romney won only two more states (Indiana and North Carolina) than John McCain did, and even if he had won Florida, the GOP nominee would still have needed to win Ohio, Virginia, and either Colorado or Iowa, based on the sequence of the election margins.”
“The danger for Republicans clinging to that solace is that it sidesteps the inconvenient truth that they have now lost the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections, from 1992 on. For the GOP, this was more than one bad night.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds that if Sen. Mark Warner (D) wants his old job as governor back next year, he’s the overwhelmingly favorite. Warner beats Lt. Bill Gov. Bolling (R), 53% to 33%, and tops Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), 52% to 34%. If Terry McAuliffe (D) is the Democratic candidate, he edges Bolling, 38% to 36%, and Cuccinelli, 41% to 37%.
Potential candidates in Massachusetts “are quietly scrambling to position themselves to run for Sen. John Kerry’s seat if President Obama appoints Kerry to be his next secretary of state, or secretary of defense,” the Boston Globe reports.
A Senate vacancy would probably create a comeback scenario for Senator Scott Brown, the Republican who lost the seat to Democrat Elizabeth Warren in last week’s election. He has sent clear signals in his concession speech and in recent interviews that he has an eye on another run.
Among the high-profile Democratic officeholders who are expressing interest are three of the state’s congressmen: Edward J. Markey of Malden, the 66-year old dean of the congressional delegation; Michael E. Capuano of Somerville, who ran second to Martha Coakley in the 2009 Senate primary; and Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston, a conservative Democrat who won his seat in a 2001 special election in which several liberals divided the vote on the left.
Unless the law is changed back to allowing the Governor to appoint the Senator, who would then serve until 2014, if Kerry resigns to become a Secretary, there will be a special election in 2013.
Less than 12 hours after his concession speech to Tammy Duckworth (D), Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL) told the Daily Herald he was not ruling out a future bid for governor or U.S. Senate.
Said Walsh: “You know that I believe fervently in that vision. I don’t know of many other candidates who articulate that vision. Am I going to do something? Oh gosh, I don’t know. People approach me every day and ask, ‘Walsh, are you going to run for the governor? Are you going to run for Senate?’ I want to do my part to lead a movement to present a vision to this. I’d rather go down fighting. Democrats have ruined this state but they’ve been able to do it because the Republicans have allowed them to.”
What horrible evil polling organization is punishing us (or in my case) delighting us with these early polls? Why, it is PPP, the most accurate polling organization in the United States. In Iowa, Hillary Clinton gets 58% in the Democratic caucuses, with Joe Biden coming in second at 17%, New York governor Andrew Cuomo coming in third at 6%, and senator-elect Elizabeth Warren at 3%. Nobody else hit 1%. If Clinton decides to sit it out, Biden jumps to 40%, with Cuomo at 14% and Warren at 9%. In New Hampshire, location of the first primary, Clinton’s lead over Biden is even larger: 60% to 10%.
Missing from this list is any mention of Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, the one candidate that we know is running. The reason for that is name recognition. He has none and Clinton and Biden have it all. The upside of the Democratic polls in Iowa and New Hampshire is that if Clinton wants it, the nomination is hers. And yes, some said that in 2008. But it wasn’t true then because a lot of Democratic Party activists and voters had doubts about her. I was one of them. I don’t have any doubts any more. While the field will not be cleared, if Hillary runs, she wins this time. End of story.
On the Republican side, in Iowa, Mike Huckabee is at 15%, followed by a three-way tie at 12% for Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Chris Christie. Jeb Bush and Rick Santorum came in at 11% and 10% respectively. In New Hampshire, it’s Christie with 21%, Rubio 14%, Condoleeza Rice 13%, Bush 11%, Ryan (10%).