The Final Polling Report, and my Final Prediction for the Presidency

Filed in National by on November 6, 2012

So, here we are. Election Day. The ultimate polling report. The only poll that matters. Well, we got some more polls yesterday to report to you, including 18 national polls, and nearly twice as many state polls. Before we get to the numbers and the map and my prediction of the final outcome, here are some great guides about the swing states, including past results, final polling averages and poll closing times: Harry Enten and the Economist.

The average of all the following final national polls is Obama 48.94, Romney 47.11, or a 1.83 point lead for the President. The national polls have clearly moved in the President’s direction over the past week and during the final weekend, and I think, with the undecideds either splitting evenly or, as some polls like the NBC/Wall Street Journal Marist poll shows, towards the President, then we could be looking at a 4-5 point margin in the popular vote. Something along the lines of O 51, R 47.

And here is our final poll projection map.

(ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47
(CNN/Opinion Research): Obama 49, Romney 49 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 48 (RV)
(Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 42(RV)
(NBC/Wall Street Journal): Obama 48, Romney 47
(Pew): Obama 48, Romney 45 (Obama 50, Romney 47 with undecideds allocated)
(Politico/GWU Battleground): Obama 48, Romney 48
(PPP Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 47
(Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48
(USA Today/Gallup): Obama 50, Romney 46 (RV only)
(YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 47
(Democracy Corps): Obama 49, Romney 45
(American Research Group): Obama 49%, Romney 49%
(Gallup): Romney 49%, Obama 48%
(Monmouth): Obama 48%, Romney 48%
(Public Policy Polling): Obama 50%, Romney 48%
(UPI/CVoter): Obama 49%, Romney 47%

And here is our final state polls for the 2012 election.

ARIZONA(PPP): Romney 53, Obama 46; (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44—The average is Romney 52.5, Obama 45, or LEAN ROMNEY.
CALIFORNIA(YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 40—STRONG OBAMA
COLORADO—(PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46, or LEAN OBAMA
CONNECTICUT(YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 39—STRONG OBAMA
FLORIDA(Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV); (Mellman Group For Americans United For Change): Obama 47, Romney 45; (Zogby): Obama 50, Romney 45; (UNF): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)—The average is Obama 48.33, Romney 44.5, or SLIM OBAMA
GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44—LEAN ROMNEY
ILLINOIS(YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 38—STRONG OBAMA
INDIANA(YouGov): Romney 51, Obama 44—LEAN ROMNEY
IOWA(Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 47, Romney 44—SLIM OBAMA
MAINE(Critical Insights): Obama 49, Romney 42—LEAN OBAMA
MARYLAND(YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 37—STRONG OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS(Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Obama 57, Romney 37; (Western New England College): Obama 58, Romney 40; (YouGov): Obama 57, Romney 37—STRONG OBAMA
MINNESOTA(PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45; (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 43—LEAN OBAMA
MISSOURI(PPP): Romney 53, Obama 45—LEAN ROMNEY
MONTANA(Mason Dixon): Romney 53, Obama 43; (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 45—The average is Romney 52.5, Obama 44, or LEAN ROMNEY.
NEW HAMPSHIRE(YouGov): Obama 47, Romney 43; (WMUR): Obama 50, Romney 45—The average is Obama 48.5, Romney 44, or SLIM OBAMA
NEW JERSEY(YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 41—STRONG OBAMA
NEW MEXICO(Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Obama 49, Romney 41, Johnson 6; (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 43—The average is Obama 49, Romney 42, or LEAN OBAMA.
NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 36—STRONG OBAMA
OHIO—(SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 44; (Univ. of Cincinnati): Obama 50, Romney 48.5; (Zogby): Obama 50, Romney 44—The average is Obama 49.67, Romney 45.5, or SLIM OBAMA.
TENNESSEE(YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 42—STRONG ROMNEY
TEXAS(YouGov): Romney 57, Obama 38—STRONG ROMNEY
VIRGINIA—(Zogby): Obama 52, Romney 44—LEAN OBAMA
WASHINGTON(PPP): Obama 53, Romney 46; (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 40—The average is Obama 53.5, Romney 43, or STRONG OBAMA
WISCONSIN(Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 42—LEAN OBAMA

And now my prediction. I am bullish on the trendlines, and the momentum that the President has right now, so I am going with what is the President’s best case scenario.

President Barack Obama—51% of the vote and 347 electoral votes
Governor Mitt Romney—47% of the vote and 191 electoral votes

I think the Democrats’ edge in early voting in North Carolina and Florida is what will win these two states for the President. If the President loses North Carolina, then he will have 332 votes. If he loses NC and Florida, then he will have 303 electoral votes. If he wins NC but not FL, then he will have 318 electoral votes. So now, go out and vote.

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  1. capesdelaware says:

    303 is correct number .We will not get North Carolina or Florida .

  2. Liberal Elite says:

    I’ll go with 332 as my prediction (i.e. FL but not NC).

  3. Liberal Elite says:

    Looks like I nailed it!