Archive for November 5th, 2012
… How Romney got away without releasing his tax returns? Nice work from our free press.
The question now is… is this just special Romney treatment, or are the days of politicians releasing tax returns gone forever. Also, too, I’m expecting politicians to start “not letting their campaigns be dictated by fact-checkers.”
Mitt Romney probably won’t win tomorrow, but he may have actually brought “real change” to American politics.
So, the polling shows that the Dems will pick up Maine (assuming Independent Angus King caucuses with the Dems), Massachusetts and Indiana. The Republicans are likely, based on recent polling, to pick up Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska. If the polling is correct, then the Senate will stay the same, with 53 Democrats and Independents to 47 Republicans. It is quite possible, even probable, that the Dems will retain their seats in Montana and North Dakota. Both races are very close. If that happens, the Dems will increase their majority to either 54 or 55 seats.
Those are the projections. Here is my prediction: I think Jon Tester wins in Montana, and I agree with the rest of the polling, so I predict that the Dems pick up 1 seat, and the new Senate will be 54-46.
As for the House, that is harder to predict or project. The Democrats currently have 193 seats, and the GOP has the majority with 242 seats. With 435 seats in the House, the Dems will need to get to 218 to have a majority, a net gain of 25 seats. Can they do it?
“The [latest NBC/Wall Street Journal Marist] survey found that 9% of the likely voters are up for grabs (meaning they’re undecided or just leaning to a candidate), and these folks have more positive feelings toward Obama than Romney. Obama’s job approval with them is 48% approve, 41% disapprove. What’s more, Obama’s fav/unfav with them is 46%/29%, vs. Romney’s upside down 22%-49%. Bottom line: Our pollsters see more of an opportunity for Obama among these voters and more of an uphill climb for Romney.”
Here’s Politico yesterday:
If President Barack Obama wins, he will be the popular choice of Hispanics, African-Americans, single women and highly educated urban whites. That’s what the polling has consistently shown in the final days of the campaign. It looks more likely than not that he will lose independents, and it’s possible he will get a lower percentage of white voters than George W. Bush got of Hispanic voters in 2000.
A broad mandate this is not.
So, if you don’t win with non-urban, uneducated white men and married white women… No mandate for you. Because some votes are more ‘merican than others. Josh Marshall says it best: Or to be more specific, Obama’s winning but not with the best votes. I mean really, if you can’t win with a broad cross-section of white people, can you really be said to represent the country?
Recent national polls show that independents are moving back to the President. A Zogby poll finds Obama has picked up five points among independents, while the latest national Public Policy Polling tracking poll shows Obama turning a longtime disadvantage with independents into a 49% to 44% advantage. Furthermore, a new national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Obama and Romney deadlocked with independents, at 46% each, matching Obama’s best showing among that group in that survey and coming after Romney had reached a high of 58% just a week and a half earlier. Finally, the Politico/GWU tracking poll finds the two men essentially tied with independents just a week after Romney held a double-digit lead with them.
Here is our map based on all the most recent polls below. As you can see, Colorado has moved back to the Obama column, and Florida back to the Romney column. Those two swing states have been the swingiest all campaign. I think Obama has the edge in Colorado and Romney, due to the illegal and immoral actions of the fascist Governor Rick Skeletor Scott, has the edge in Florida. Personally, I actually think Obama is going to win North Carolina due to the early voting lead he has, while Florida remains a true toss up. Indeed, the polling average of all the polls in Florida released yesterday show 48.89 for Romney and 48.22 for Obama. It doesn’t get much closer than that.