Over the course of the next three days, I will be doing several Final Prediction posts. First up, we will have the statewide races for Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senator and U.S. Representative and Insurance Commissioner, with the New County County Executive and Council President races thrown in for good measure. Tomorrow I will cover the General Assembly, both the Delaware Senate and Delaware House. Monday, we will make our final predictions in the U.S. Senate races, and then finally on Tuesday morning, we will have our final polling report, with the final prediction as to who will win the Presidency. I will also, where applicable, let you know who I am voting for.
The only real question in the Statewide races is a question of margin. All the Democrats above will win, even though I will not be voting for all them.
In 2008, Jack Markell won the Governor’s Mansion with 72% of the vote. Will he reach that milestone again? I tend to doubt it. Markell was riding the Democratic tide with a home state senator on the national ticket, and he also pulled in some Hockessin-Greenville Republicans too. This year, while I think President Obama will match the 62% of the vote he got in Delaware in 2008, I think Markell will get around 65%. Not a bad drop off.
I think El Som is right in that Matt Denn will be in a much closer race that Markell. 58-42 sticks out to me to be the margin. Maybe 60-40. Sher, or Cheryl, can go back to building her own business without any government help whatsoever. Or maybe, she will be the future of the Party. She seemed to lie with the ease required of Republicans these days in her debate with Matt Denn.
I will be voting for both Markell and Denn with enthusiasm. I think they have done well and deserve another term. And on the flip side, Jeff Cragg and Sher Valenzeula have inspired no confidence that they would do anything but repeat tired and false Republican talking points. And it should also be pointed out that both of these Republican candidates were retrieved from the very back of the bench. Every other single credible Republican leader in this state demurred. Not that there are many Republican leaders in Delaware anymore. But still, Charlie Copeland, Gerald Hocker, and Greg Lavelle stayed on the sidelines. That speaks volumes.
In the U.S. Senate race, a truly remarkable thing has happened. Senator Carper has become a sympathetic figure that I will be voting for with enthusiasm as well. That is what happens when an asshole like Alex Pires decides to film a documentary, er ah.. run for the Senate. If Pires had not run, I might have been intent voting for Green Party candidate Andrew Groff as a protest vote. But with Pires in the race, I cannot take that chance. But I still think Carper will win easily, with something like 55% for Carper, 25% for Pires, 18% for Wade and 2% for Groff.
Congressman Carney should garner the same percentage of the vote (mid to high 50′s) against the dumbest man in Delaware politics, Tom Kovach. Indeed, this race has turned out to be a dud, but when it first began, it looked like the Republicans were fielding their strongest candidate against the first term Congressman. But, Kovach will once again lose an election in November. Hopefully someone will resign somewhere in New Castle County, giving Kovach another shot at a low turnout special election win. Perhaps Tom Gordon will revert to his old corrupt ways… but more on him in a moment.
And yes, I will also be voting for John Carney. On my car there are three bumper stickers (though they are not on the bumper but on the bottom of the rear window (easier to get off that way)), one for Obama, one for Markell-Denn and one for Carney.
Now we reach the part of the ballot where I will be going against type. My name is Delaware Dem here at DL. But I will be voting for two Republicans. Ben Mobley and Mark Blake.
The reason why incompetents like the incumbent Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart win elections is because low information voters who know nothing about the office or the person just vote for the party. And that is how KWS won after many tries in 2008. She got swept in thanks to the Obama wave. I am not a low information voter who is just going to vote party line. Is there a difference between Karen Weldin Stewart and a Republican? Aside from her 11th hour transparent move to forbid insurance companies from imposing hurricane deductibles during the recent storm, I cannot think of a single pro-consumer action she has taken. Now, it is clear that Ben Mobley will also not be pro-consumer, for he is a Republican. But I simply cannot vote for KWS. Can’t do it. For if she gets a high enough reelect vote margin, she, in her mind and in her supporters’ mind, will be validated and vindicated. So my goal is to make sure she does not ride a wave this time. Let her sweat a little in the Queen on election night. While everyone else on the ballot is declared and celebrating, let her be hovering over a computer, nervous. Sure, she will still win, but let’s not make it easy for her.
So that is why I am voting for Ben Mobley. Not because Ben Mobley is anything but a nefarious Republican intent on fellating insurance companies the minute he gets into office. But because he is not KWS.
In the same vein, I cannot vote for Tom Gordon for New Castle County Executive. I would be a fool to, and so will you. He abused his office once (or ten times) before, and displayed arrogance and pettiness in doing it. So no, he will not get my vote. Maybe he and his supporters are right that he is changed. Well, it is a near certainty that Gordon will win so he will have a chance to prove to me and everyone that he has changed. And if he is a good Executive, that does not abuse power or enrich his cronies or use county employees for political purposes all the while being arrogant and petty, then maybe he will be redeemed. So we will see.
So Mark Blake gets my vote. Gordon gets my patience.
Finally, the Rev. Chris Bullock will win by default and be the next County Council President. And he will have my vote. Why do I say default? His opponent is pilot Mike Pornstache Protack. That is all.