Thursday Open Thread [11.1.12]

Filed in Open Thread by on November 1, 2012

Mike Allen:

“Both sides are nervous, but Republicans are MORE nervous. They don’t find it particularly encouraging that Mitt Romney was in Florida yesterday and will be in Virginia today – two states the campaign would love to have put away by now. Is Romney’s ‘expand-the-map’ drive… a sign of confidence, or a Hail Mary frenzy because of trepidation about Ohio? The correct answer: It’s mainly an effort to project confidence at a time when Republicans fear a slow-motion reversal of fortune.”

“Top Republicans are already hinting that if Romney loses, his people will blame the storm for stalling his momentum. But D.C. GOPers acknowledge that having some of the nation’s top auto executives call you out, when you’re the business guy born in Michigan, ain’t helpful.”

I am no longer nervous. Why? 7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5.

Harry Enten:

I learned a powerful lesson eight years ago: polling averages work. The averages have correctly predicted all state presidential contests except for five since 2000. They have accurately projected every Senate winner, save a few, over the last few years. The state polling averages say Obama is going to win. There is a crowd, however, that believes the polls have too many Democrats. They look at the polling data and see the same, or even higher, percentage of poll respondents in states like Ohio self-identifying as Democrats than the polls had in 2008 – a year of record high enthusiasm for Democrats. My personal opinion is that the polling averages are likely correct. I witnessed Democrats making the “skewed” argument in 2004 when polls showed “too many Republicans”. The averages won, and George W Bush served another term. We’ll see, though, if I’ll be eating my words.

Meanwhile, here is something I did not know, from Mark Hertsgard at The Nation:

Sandy is short for Cassandra, the Greek mythological figure who epitomizes tragedy. The gods gave Cassandra the gift of prophecy; depending on which version of the story one prefers, she could either see or smell the future. But with this gift also came a curse: Cassandra’s warnings about future disasters were fated to be ignored. That is the essence of this tragedy: to know that a given course of action will lead to disaster but to pursue it nevertheless.

And so it has been with America’s response to climate change. For more than twenty years, scientists and others have been warning that global warming, if left unaddressed, would bring a catastrophic increase in extreme weather—summers like that of 2012, when the United States endured the hottest July on record and the worst drought in fifty years, mega-storms like the one now punishing the East Coast.

Ignore the stuff about climate change, because, why start paying attention to it now. For now on, we shall refer to our own Cassandra, our wonderful Delaware Liberal contributor, as Sandy.

Now, I expect this to be my last Open Thread, for Sandy is likely to kill me shortly.

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Comments (15)

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  1. Jason330 says:

    Powell’s statement demonstrates something sorely lacking in the GOP; common sense.

    Oh how I pine for the days when conservative mean sober and level headed.

  2. cassandra_m says:

    Hunting for you now, buddy. But you can ignore that prophecy of your future demise.


  3. fightingbluehen says:

    NBC bought the rights to all the Premier League Football games starting next season. I hope they show all the games like Fox and ESPN do, and not just the big teams like Manchester United and Chelsea. I also hope they don’t turn the commentary into the same ridiculous circus like format of American Football. They need to have a good balance of British and American commentary, and they need to call it football, not soccer. There is no such thing as the English Premier Soccer League. If they screw it up I swear I will leave a message in their complaint box.

  4. Another Mike says:

    I have become much more of a football fan the past few years. Part of that is being able to watch live EPL matches on Saturday mornings. I imagine NBC Sports Network would continue those telecasts. I feel the same way as you, FBH.

  5. cassandra_m says:

    Surprise of the day: Mayor Bloomberg endorses President Obama. Looks like the hurricane and the threat of climate change motivated him to make this endorsement.

  6. V says:

    Well gentlemen I’d like to point out that we do have a local professional football team right up 95 if you need a fix the english aren’t providing. This current season notwithstanding Philly Union games are a damn good time.

  7. John Manifold says:

    Do this week’s events make clear that Delaware must improve its voting mechanism?

  8. fightingbluehen says:

    @Another Mike: Nothing like a good football breakfast on a cold rainy Saturday morning.
    In the bigger cities they have pubs that serve breakfast and beer to big crowds cheering their teams on.

    @ V: I would like to catch one of those Union games, but it’s kind of a drive from Lewes. I follow MLS sometimes when there is nothing else on, but it’s just not the same as the Prem. MLS would be like a third tier league in England. That being said, there are some good retired players from England and Europe who play in the MLS. The likes of Beckham, Keane, and Henry plus others.

  9. fightingbluehen says:

    That new PPL Park stadium looks pretty cool with the bridge in the background and all.

  10. V says:

    FBH a pub breakfast and cheering crowd to an english football game is also available locally. Stoneys on 202 does it, so does Catherine Rooney’s if you ever find yourself in the north in the AM

    also, I maintain that if more people supported our local american league instead of the english teams it would get better. It’s growing and growing every year and lots of teams have youth feeder clubs already set up so eventually we’ll grow like the euro leagues.

  11. socialistic ben says:

    also the NFL (and the nhl, nba, mlb) is turning into a gigantic cluster F of rich fat old white men and crybaby egomaniacal rich athletes. seriously, screw american pro sports (football, hockey, baseball, and basketball)

  12. V-

    It’s growing and growing every year and lots of teams have youth feeder clubs already set up so eventually we’ll grow like the euro leagues.

    I played soccer as a child. I’ve been hearing this nonsense for 30 years now. Americans just don’t have the patience for soccer. There’s simply not enough scoring and/or injuries to keep the average short-attention-span American sports fan’s interest. F1 & WCR racing get little play here for the same reasons. All require the viewer to pay attention for more than 30 seconds. American sports fans generally can’t handle that.

  13. Another Mike says:

    Currently watching Vancouver at Los Angeles in the MLS Western Conference wild card (switching back and forth with college volleyball). I like the MLS, but the EPL is another level. I just wish the Union hadn’t traded LeToux and Mwanga. They were the team’s two best scorers in 2010 and 2011. I had trouble figuring out what they were trying to do this year.

  14. V says:

    You and me both Mike, you and me both.

    and Roland, they don’t grow if people refuse to support it because “they’ll never get there.” We’re in a supporters club and it’s really fun.