The Penultimate U.S. Senate Forecast

Filed in National by on November 1, 2012

And now for our Senate Forecast. I imagine we will do one more of these on Monday. As the polls stand now, the Democrats will pick up a net 1 seat, increasing their total to 54 seats (52 actual Democrats, and 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats). The Democrats will pick up, or take away from the Republicans, the Senate seats in Massachusetts, Indiana and Maine. The Republicans will win seats in North Dakota and Nebraska, according to recent polling. Though it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Democrats can retain both of those seats. Heidi Heitkamp has led in recent polling in North Dakota, and Bob Kerrey just got the endorsement of Chuck Hagel, and recent polling before the Fischer internal had the race tightening significantly. If they do win both, the Democrats will hold 56 seats. Impressive feat in a year that Republicans were suppose to retake the majority.

CALIFORNIA—STRONG DEM—(Pepperdine Univ.): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 51, Elizabeth Emken (R) 32

FLORIDA—The average is Nelson 51, Mack 40.67, or STRONG DEM—(CBS News/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 39; (SurveyUSA): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 41; (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 42;

INDIANA—The average is Donnelly 45.33, Mourdock 41, or SLIM DEM—(Clarity Campaigns for the DGA): Joe Donnelly (D) 49, Richard Mourdock (R) 42; (Global Strategy Group for the Donnelly campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 43, Richard Mourdock (R) 36, Andy Horning (L) 9; (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Andy Horning (L) 4

MASSACHUSETTS–LEAN DEM—(Suffolk University): Elizabeth Warren (D) 53, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46

MICHIGAN—The average is Stabenow 53, Hoekstra 35.5, or STRONG DEM—(EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 54, Pete Hoekstra (R) 33; (Glengariff Group): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38

MINNESOTA–STRONG DEM—(Mason Dixon): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 65, Kurt Bills (R) 22

MISSOURI—SLIM DEM—(We Ask America–R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 49, Todd Akin (R) 45, Jonathan Dine (L) 6

NEBRASKA—STRONG GOP—(Gravis–R): Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 44

NEVADA—The average is Heller 45, Berkley 41.5, or SLIM GOP—(SurveyUSA): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 46, Shelley Berkley (D) 40, David VanderBeek (IAP) 6; (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, Shelley Berkley (D) 43

NEW JERSEY–STRONG DEM—(Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 50, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32

NEW MEXICO–The average is Heinrich 47, Wilson 42.5, or LEAN DEM—(GBA Strategies for the Heinrich campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 41, Others 6; (Public Opinion Strategies for the Wilson campaign): Heather Wilson (R) 44, Martin Heinrich (D) 43, Others 6

NORTH DAKOTA–SLIM GOP—(Mason Dixon): Rick Berg (R) 47, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45

OHIO—The average is Brown 48.75, Mandel 42, or LEAN DEM—(CBS News/Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 42; (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41; (Univ. of Cincinnati): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44; (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 41, Scott Rupert (I) 3

PENNSYLVANIA—LEAN DEM—(Franklin and Marshall): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 39 (LV); Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 35 (RV)

RHODE ISLAND—STRONG DEM—(Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (R) 55, Barry Hinckley (D) 33

VIRGINIA–SLIM DEM—(CBS News/Quinnipiac): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 46

WISCONSIN–The average is Baldwin 47, Thompson 43.33, or SLIM DEM—(Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 45; (Marquette Law School): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47 Tommy Thompson (R) 43 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 46, Tommy Thompson (R) 42 (RV)

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  1. Eric Dondero says:

    Looks like the Dems just lost another seat. The Bob Menendez Hooker Sex scandal has just exploded all across the internet news sites, including some liberal outlets within the last hour. The conservative sites broke it late last night. Now, nearly 24 hours later, the dam has broken.

    Eric – Newport, DE

  2. Jason330 says:

    I never like Bob Kerrey.

  3. Jason330 says:

    Eric, The world is on to your James O’Keefe-ian GOP nonsense.

  4. Delaware Dem says:

    Really, Eric? I think you are once again lying. I just perused all the liberal sites, and I see nothing. I looked all the mainstream media sites. Nothing. I watched the local news at noon, and the big four are not running with it. Good luck in having this story explode in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.

    The kicker is, even if all the allegations are true, nothing that occurred is illegal as prostitution is legal in the DR, and nothing adulterous happened as the Senator is not married (he is divorced).

    So this is a big “who cares, the guy got laid” story.

    Only self righteous hypocritical moralist Christianist fucks like you care about it.

    I hereby predict that Menendez, even if all of the Daily Caller allegations are true, will win reelection rather easily.

  5. socialistic ben says:

    also the immorality of exploiting 2 women from a third world country just to get off, then going home and pretending to be a progressive who cares about people……. if true. (honestly sounds more like a GOP senator)

  6. Delaware Dem says:

    If you care about such things like morality. I don’t. And this is all assuming the allegations are true. I suspect, given the Brietbartian connections, that they are not. Conservatives lie all the time just to smear.

  7. Delaware Dem says:

    If you need proof of that, look at their Presidential nominee.

  8. Geezer says:

    If sex-for-hire didn’t derail David Vitter, the Diaper Dandy of Louisiana, why would it doom Bob Menendez?

  9. cassandra_m says:

    Conservatives lie all the time just to smear.

    And apparently this is true for the GOP conservatives in Libertarian clothing too.

  10. xstryker says:

    Nothing fishy at all about people in a foreign country making such allegations 5 days before the election. Surely this won’t go down in the Lee Atwater Book Of The All Time Dirtiest Campaign Shenanigans.