Archive for October 31st, 2012

Halloween Open Thread [10.31.12]

Filed in National by Delaware Dem on October 31, 2012 • 18 Comments

El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You

Filed in National by El Somnambulo on October 31, 2012 • 151 Comments

My Delaware predictions, with pithy comments:

President of the United States: Obama/Biden again win Delaware handily. Down-ballot races could well be impacted by (lack of) R enthusiasm, especially upstate.

United States Senate: Tom Carper, Delaware’s senior DLC cheerleader and in effect the Father of Delaware DLC politics, wins easily. Only an egomaniacal madman like Alex Pires could almost turn Carper into a sympathetic figure. There was a viable insurgency campaign to be run against Carper, but Pires chose not to run it.

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The Polling Report [Halloween Edition]

Filed in National by Delaware Dem on October 31, 2012 • 5 Comments

This Halloween Polling Report is scary for Republicans. Normally when a challenger defeats an incumbent, he is leading by wide margins right now. Remember 1992? Clinton was leading in all the polls, both national and state, by margins enough to ensure he would win 270. That is not the case for Mr. Romney right now. He is woefully behind the ball in the battleground states. In the end, he may win Florida and North Carolina, but the rest of the toss ups have Obama leading, as you see on our map.

Indeed, the point of our map, and why it is different from all other polling maps, is to show you who would win the election if the election where today. For that is all a poll can ask you. So that is all we are showing. And right now, we are showing an clear Obama victory. If Romney were to win, this map should be showing a clear Romney victory right now. It’s not.

So we have a lot of new polls out. The biggest surprise to me? Georgia is not lockdown safe for Romney. Georgia.