The Polling Report [10.29.12] (Updated with more Tracking Polls)

Filed in National by on October 29, 2012

Here are some polls released on Saturday and Sunday. All very good for the President. Indeed, the Associated Press reports that President Obama “is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio.”

“While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.”

Meanwhile, and interestingly, Gallup finds the composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008. That is not good news for the Republicans.

Here is the current map based on the recent polling in each state, with the most recent results since our last report posted below:

NATIONAL POLLS
PPP: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Gallup: Romney 50%, Obama 46% (LV); Obama 48%, Romney 47% (RV)
IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%, Romney 44%
RAND: Obama 51%, Romney 44%
ABC News/Washington Post: Romney 49%, Obama 48%
Politico/George Washington University: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

STATE POLLS
FLORIDA–The average is Obama 48%, Romney 47.5%, or SLIM OBAMA.
Pharos: Romney 47%, Obama 47%
PPP: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

OHIO–The average is Obama 50%, Romney 48.33%, or SLIM OBAMA.
PPP: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Cincinnati Enquirer: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Gravis: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

MINNESOTA–SLIM OBAMA
Minneapolis Star Tribune: Obama 47%, Romney 44%

NEBRASKA–STRONG ROMNEY
Wiese Research Associates–Romney 52%, Obama 38%

NEBRASKA’s 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT–LEAN ROMNEY
Wiese Research Associates–Romney 50%, Obama 45%

NEW HAMPSHIRE–SLIM OBAMA
PPP: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

PENNSYLVANIA–SLIM OBAMA
Pharos: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

TENNESSEE–STRONG ROMNEY
MTSU: Romney 59%, Obama 34%

VIRGINIA–The average is Obama 50%, Romney 46.5%, or SLIM OBAMA
Priorities USA Action: Obama 49%, Romney 46%
Washington Post: Obama 51%, Romney 47%

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Comments (6)

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  1. Rustydils says:

    Your statement that gallup finds the composition of the electorate similar to 2008 is an over simplification at best. They show democrats down 4 points. They show republicans up 7 points. They show dem leaning independents down substantially, and rep leaning independents up substantially. So no, this is actually going to be way different than 2008.

  2. Delaware Dem says:

    Well, the problem is the Gallup likely voter screen is based on a 2010 turnout, which is what you conservatives wanted when you all screamed like babies to “unskewer” the polls.

    I agree it will be different than 2008. We won by 7 points last time. This time we will win by 2-3 points and 332 electoral votes.

  3. Rev bullock says:

    Because I have been an R and a D many times depending on what is best for me I know these polls are not very good. Btw my GOP group TURN. The underground republican network is still alive.

  4. Liberal Elite says:

    Probably worth noting…

    The Dems Senate forecast odds have also increased. The Dems to hold is now over 90% for the first time.

  5. Liberal Elite says:

    @Rb “The underground republican network is still alive.”

    That sounds utterly racist.

    And it bothers you not that your candidate is a corrupt liar whose numbers deliberately don’t add up.

    Question: When reality strikes and he says “Oops”, who is he going to leave behind?

    Answer: People like you.

  6. Protack is advertizing himself on facebook and the radio as an honest, upright, transparent kind of candidate. When I read his constant sockpuppetry put up with here, it just makes the case ever stronger that he is a liar and would never get my vote.

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