The Polling Report [10.22.12]
We have some new polls out of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning, but no changes in the map below. The national and tracking polls are all over the place. We have one tracking poll giving the President a six point lead, 2 giving Romney a 2 point lead, 2 showing the race tied, and Gallup giving Romney a 7 point lead.
NATIONAL POLLS
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 42
Politico/George Washington University: Romney 49, Obama 47
Public Policy Polling: Obama 48, Romney 48
NBC News / Wall Street Journal: Obama 47, Romney 47
Gallup Tracking: Romney 52, Obama 45 (LV), Romney 49, Obama 46 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 47
STATE POLLS
MICHIGAN (Angus Reid): Obama 52, Romney 43–LEAN OBAMA
OHIO (Angus Reid): Obama 48, Romney 48
OHIO (CBS News/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 45
The average of the two is Obama 49, Romney 46.5, or a SLIM OBAMA lead
PENNSYLVANIA (Morning Call/Muhlenberg): Obama 50, Romney 45–LEAN OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
MISSOURI (PPP): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Rep. Todd Akin (R) 40, Lbertarian Jonathan Dine 6.
“There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.”
FWIW TPM now has PA as a toss-up. I don’t like it. This election is too close, and if it is close on election night, the GOP is set up to cheat.
What’s the math behind the Obama lead in NC and FL?
The math, or more accurately, the methodology is as follows: First, I don’t do polling averages except as to when polls in one state are released on the same day. Each day, we cover what new state polls are released and we change the classification of the state accordingly. So on Sunday, we had a new poll out of North Carolina showing Obama ahead by 3. So, on our map, Obama is ahead by 3. We also had 5 polls out of Florida yesterday. After averaging them all together, we get a slim Obama lead of 47.14 to 46.6. Second, I don’t include any Rasmussen or other explicitly Republican polling outfits in our map (i.e. We Ask America or Gravis). Third, I don’t have a toss up category. Most sites classify a state a toss up if 1) the lead for any candidate is below 5 points or 2) the lead for any candidate is within the margin of error. In my polling report, if a candidate leads in a new poll in a certain state on a given day, that state is colored blue or red accordingly.
From yesterday’s Polling Report:
FLORIDA:
NORTH CAROLINA:
I am sorry but this electoral map is almost bogus. North Carolina and Florida are leaning more Romney then they are obama. Gallup which has accurately predicted almost every election in the past two decades has Romney up by 6. This map is just trying to calm down every liberal and say everything is going to be ok. You should be doing the opposite and showing obama losing which would fire up the obama base. I hope Romney wins electorally, just so I can see all the sad posts the next day. Hint: to delaware liberal get your head out of your a**. Even if obama wins its going to be a lot closer then this map has him at.
“Gallup which has accurately predicted almost every election in the past two decades…”
Where did you get that nonsense? Gallup was wrong in two of the last three.
LOL. Ok, Really.
All I am doing is listing the most recent credible polls on a map every day. All you are doing is living in a fantasy world where every state is a toss up and where national polls rather than state polls are important.
The national polls are worthless, if for the simple fact that they are all over the place. From Romney up 5 today in Gallup (where his lead has collapsed over the weekend) to Romney up 2 to tied to Obama up 3 to Obama up 6, everyone is free to pick and choose which national poll they like best.
So since we do not elect our president by national popular vote, but through 51 different elections in the states and D.C., the most important you can do is follow the state polls. So that is what we are doing.
And Really, feel free to come back here on Nov. 7 and talk about how idiotic you are.
Ok, first Gallup today has him up by 6, it’s simple math 45 to 51 is 6 not 5. Second Real Clear politics, which is an average of every poll taken, has Romney up by 5.6% in North Carolina, which is outside the Margin of error at 3.5%. Romney also has a 2.1% lead in Florida according to RCP. By the way RCP uses all credible polls not just the ones you choose to use in your “fantasy word”. So just using those two states your map is flawed.
if you’re goin by one poll for NC…… on the other hand, other maps have NH and Iowa in the President’s column…. so at best this just re-affirms the closeness of the race…
Really, DD is correct that the national polls (or even national popular votes) don’t mean a thing.(see 2000) Right now, Obama is narrowly winning the electoral vote (i think a even a really conservative look would put him at 271) and that is what matters.
Will I be happy if he wins only because of our horribly flawed Electoral College system? no. (although with a republican controlled congress*, it might actually force a change) But it’s a lot better than an alternative where Netanyahu is in charge of our foreign policy.
*although the democrats have more senators and will most likely after the election, unless the republicans have 30 or less senators, they are very much in control of congress.
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Really, please go back and read my earlier comments about Rasmussen and averaging. Rasmussen and its smaller Rasmussen-like polls are not credible. Therefore, RCP is not credible, since RCP uses it.
But one of us will be right on Nov. 7, and I bet that I am the only one that will be here that day. You will be crying somewhere with no courage to face us.
There was only one candidate to have more then 50% in Gallup and lose…It was 64 years, when every poll was wrong. (when everyone said Truman was going to lose)
I love how this conservative idiot is now the defender of the honor and integrity of a polling organization when just a month ago he or she was most likely going insane the same polling organization skewing the results for Obama.
One, not a conservative idiot. I am actually independent, and was defending the polling data when the Republicans were attacking it back in September. But you resorting to name calling and going away from the math just proves you do not have as many facts as you think you do. Typical liberal “well your a meany head” response. By the way almost every political pundit and professors, who have phd in this field, use real clear politics as a barometer for the election. You still have yet to show what math you are using for North Carolina. Also if I was putting the polling data together I would take out any liberal leaning or conservative leaning polls. Two great examples of those type of polls would be msnbc and fox news.
Also only using grove insight for your argument on North Carolina is not math. Its own description on it’s website says that it was built for progressive candidates, which usually fall into the democrat party. If you wanted to do a true map you would also take out that poll as one that leans left or right.
The question is not whether a particular firm is hired by progressive campaigns or conservative ones. It is about their methodology in conducting the poll. Rasmussen purposefully samples more Republicans than Democrats regardless of any particular year’s turnout model, and this has been empirically proven by experts in polling. The minute that is proven about Grove Insight or any other organization that polls for Democrats I will exclude them too.
All Im saying is you included Grove but you excluded Rasmussen. Either include both or exclude both. Still no math on North Carolina?
Thanks for explanation, I didn’t realize you were doing them depending on the new polls that come out each day, I figured it was an average.
Really, Gallup has been proven to overshoot hard before the election before coming down to Earth. Gallup is the only poll that’s been out there showing Romney with anything more than a 1 or 2 point lead, and there’s just as many of those showing Obama with a one or two point lead. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/
“In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large.”
Honestly, anyone who says they know what’s going to happen on November 6th is dead wrong. All we can do is volunteer and hope Obama wins.