The Polling Report [10.11.12]
Time to feel better polling junkies. The best week of Romney’s campaign is over and he did not take the lead in the major swing states. Yes, he is still too close for comfort, yes he got a debate bump in the swing states. But he did not take the lead. He did not hurt Obama’s numbers. Colorado returns to the good side, and we have new polls in Nevada, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Michigan.
Here is the map:
NATIONAL POLLS
Fox News: Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 44 (RV)
Gallup Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 45 (RV)
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 44
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Romney 45, Obama 44 (LV); Obama 44, Romney 41 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 47
YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)
STATE POLLS
COLORADO (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 48, Romney 47–Slim Obama
FLORIDA (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 47, Romney 46
FLORIDA (Univ. of North Florida): Obama 49, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (Adults)
The average of the three findings is Obama 49, Romney 44, or Lean Obama.
MAINE (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Obama 51, Romney 37, Others 1–Strong Obama
MONTANA (Montana State University-Billings): Romney 49, Obama 35, Others 3
MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52, Obama 41
The average is 50.5 for Romney and 38 for Obama, so Montana is Strong Romney.
NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47–Slim Obama
RHODE ISLAND (Brown University): Obama 58, Romney 32–Strong Obama
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Obama 49, Romney 42–Lean Obama
NEW JERSEY (Global Strategy Group): Obama 51, Romney 40–Strong Obama
OHIO (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45–Lean Obama
VIRGINIA (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Romney 48, Obama 47
VIRGINIA (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 51%, Romney 46%
The average is Obama 49, Romney 47, so Slim Obama
WISCONSIN (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 47–Slim Obama
SENATE POLLS
AZ-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Richard Carmona (D) 47, Jeff Flake (R) 43–Slim Dem
AZ-SEN (Tarrance Group for the Flake campaign): Jeff Flake (R) 49, Richard Carmona (D) 43
This is hilarious, dueling internal campaign polls. The average is Flake 46, Carmona 45, or Slim GOP.
ME-SEN (Pan Atlantic/SMS): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 24, Cynthia Dill (D) 12–Strong Dem
MT-SEN (PPP): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8–Slim Dem
NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 44, David Venderbeek (IAP) 4–Slim GOP
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45–Slim GOP
RI-SEN (Brown University): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 59, Barry Hinckley (R) 30–Strong Dem
Obama is still out in front, but Florida is yellow on the TPM map and red on the intrade map. What you are looking at to keep North Carolina blue? NC is not really in play.
I disagree. NC is in play and the most recent non-Rasmussen/Republican poll has Obama in the lead by 2 points. Nate Silver says he expects Florida to go to Romney but the rest of the swing states will go Obama. We will see.
This is by far the bluest electoral map I’ve seen. Every other poll has Romney up by 2 in NC, a tie in Florida, WI, Iowa, and Nevada and Colorado, and Virginia……. you’re giving Obama almost 100 more electoral votes than Huffington Post…… Not that I don’t like seeing this, but my skepticism is raging right now.
I change the map daily according to the new polls of the day. And if a candidate leads in a poll, he leads on my map. A state is not a toss up unless it is an actual tied result. So a lot of maps declare a state a toss up if the lead is below 5 points. Further, I have not seen any polling out of NC by a credible non Republican polling outfit this week. Last week, there was polling putting Obama up 2 points, so that is why the state is blue right now.
So, in reality, my map is more accurate and reflective of the daily polling reality rather than other orgs that just put up their hands and label everything a toss up.
A tangental observation about how these polls are reported — this week I have been absolutely fascinated by the media reporting on the Rmoney bounce. After reporting for months that Obama and Romney were in “a close race”, the new narrative is that Romney surged back and had the race is either close OR tied. So how does that work, exactly? Apparently we were not meant to notice that the race wasn’t close for awhile. Anyone else notice this?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Senate/Maps/Oct11-s.html has the Senate with 53 Dems, 44 Reps, and 3 toss-ups.
This map is pretty close to mine too Ben. Calm your media driven anxiety. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct11-noras.html
Also, Cassandra, I notice that when Romney leads by 1-3 points, he is a clear leader of the race, an unstoppable force whom God has ordained directly. When Obama leads by 1-3 points, it is a tied race.
I noticed it, Cassandra. On Morning Joe this morning the only poll Joe questioned was Ohio. All the polls that had Romney tied or ahead were just fine.
Side note: Is there a show on TV more misogynistic than Morning Joe? Don’t get me wrong, I’m no fan of Mika, but the sexism on that show is blatant.
but my anxiety is the only thing that gets me out of bed in the morning…….
here’s my real fear… that very very close races and “oops i lost a box of ballots in a dem neighborhood” antics by GOP poll workers in the voter suppression states will give Romney a very very narrow victory. Think that sounds crazy? 3 words…. to quote the late great Tim Russert. Florida Florida Florida. If im team Obama, i give up on Virginia, NC, and Florida, keep what vie got and focus on Ohio to win it with 275 elec votes. Some more states may fall dem, but you gotta secure victory. a win is a win….a loss is war with Iran, end of the social safety net, and total corporate control of our lives.
I’m with Ben … and Michael Moore. Start practicing the words “President Romney”. The key states that are slim or leaning will be stolen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUchxWPj9mM
Let’s hope we’re wrong.
Nobody should be complacent. This race was always going to be close. But when it comes to listening to someone, forgive me for skipping Michael Moore in favor of Nate Silver.
@Democratic Dem: A state should be a toss-up if a candidate’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, i.e., if a lead is not statistically significant.
we discount the GOP’s capacity and willingness to engage in election stealing at our own peril.