The Polling Report [9.27.12] with a Senate Forecast Update

Filed in National by on September 27, 2012

Look at that drop:

There are no changes in our state by state electoral college map, but here is is again for our viewing pleasure:

NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 44
NATIONAL–Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 40 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 48, Obama 46
NATIONAL–YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 43

IOWA–PPP: Obama 51, Romney 44
MARYLAND–Gonzales Research: Obama 55, Romney 36
MASSACHUSETTS–Rasmussen: Obama 55, Romney 40
MISSOURI–Chilenski Strategies for Missouri Scout: Romney 50, Obama 44
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin and Marshall: Obama 52, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 39 (RV)

Here is our latest Senate forecast. It remains unchanged in the final outlook, as there will be 53 Dems and 47 Rethugs if the election were held today.

ARIZONA–Anzalone-Liszt for the Carmona campaign: Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 43, Marc Victor (L) 3—Slim GOP
ARIZONA–Rasmussen: Jeff Flake (R) 47, Richard Carmona (D) 41—Lean GOP

I have to take the average of the multiple polls in one race when I get more than two showing different results on the same day. When I do that here, it is Flake 45.5, Carmona 42, or Slim GOP.

CONNECTICUT–PPP: Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 42—Lean Dem
FLORIDA–Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 53, Connie Mack IV (R) 39—Strong Dem
MARYLAND–Gonzales Research: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Daniel Bongino (R) 22, Rob Sobhani (I) 21—Strong Dem
MISSOURI–Chilenski Strategies for Missouri Scout: Todd Akin (R) 48, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47—Slim GOP
OHIO–Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 40—Strong Dem
PENNSYLVANIA–Franklin and Marshall: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 38
PENNSYLVANIA–Quinnipiac for CBS/NYT: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 43

The average is Casey 48.5, Smith 40.5, or Lean Dem.

MISSOURI–Chilenski Strategies for Missouri Scout: Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 55, Dave Spence (R) 38
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the NH Democratic Party: Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 46

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Comments (15)

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  1. Jason330 says:

    Has anyone else heard that Ryan’s nickname for Romney is “The Stench?”

    I heard it around the water cooler this morning from a guy who considers himself and independent.

  2. Jason330 says:

    Appearently it was satire, but too close to reality and so funny part of the satire was missed by many.

  3. Delaware Dem says:

    Yes, it is from a Politico piece from either Monday or Tuesday by Roger Simon. Some Republican operative/strategist said last week that if Paul Ryan ever wanted to run for higher office after this election he will need to wash the Stench of Romney off him. So Simon wrote this Politico column stating that Ryan calls Romney “Stench” behind his back and is going rogue Sarah Palin style.

    Now apparently, they are saying the column was satire, with the piece being updated saying so. Hmmmmmm….

  4. Don’t say this often enough…I LOVE this feature!

  5. cassandra_m says:

    Team Obama is apparently taking a hard look at competing in AZ. I suspect that is more about trying to support Carmona who looks *really* competitive, than actually winning the state. But it is still cool that they feel they can think about expanding the map.

  6. puck says:

    Catholics are more liberal than their leadership, just like the rest of the nation.

  7. pandora says:

    Haven’t you heard? Republicans no longer believe polls. How desperate do you have to be to try and pull this stunt?

  8. Dave says:

    In public Catholics generally bow to papal authority on spiritual matters. In private, such as in the voting booth, they thumb their noses at him. Doesn’t mean the pope is not respected. It simply means that American Catholics are a perverse bunch who revel in frustrating the Vatican. As I said we normally don’t do it in public but take great delight in private rebellion.

  9. puck says:

    Has Romney yet been heard saying “The only poll that matters is on Election Day?” Which is basically a concession speech.

  10. Steve Newton says:

    DD have you seen this Ohio poll

    which shows Gary Johnson at 10.6% when included in the poll (with the difference between Obama and Romney being about 8 points) and what do you think of it? Is this a real or illusory result for the LP candidate?

  11. Jason330 says:

    I’d expect Johnson to get a lift as Romney looks more and more like a loser. After all, Libertarians are just embarrassed Republicans and Romney has sure given a lot of Republicans something to be embarrassed about.

  12. cassandra_m says:

    Is there anyone who is routinely polling any of the 3rd party candidates? This one outfit that Steve points to is awfully new and (according to Nate Silver) shows R house effects in their polls. I searched abit (but not too hard) for something that might aggregate them.

  13. Delaware Dem says:


    Yes I saw that poll and I discounted it. Why? It’s by Gravis Marketing, a Republican partisan outfit that Nate Silver has deemed Rasmussen-like in their methodology. Now that I see Johnson is getting 10%, I am even more certain Gravis should be discounted.

    However, to the larger point, can Gary Johnson get to double digits?

    It is unlikely, unless Romney becomes so toxic that Republicans start abandoning him for Johnson in droves.

    Remember, in the most celebrated, publicized and hyped third party candidacy in history, that of H. Ross Perot in 1992, someone whom I consider to be something of a Libertarian Populist if there is such a thing; Perot got only 19%. And then in 1996, while not in the debates but still much publicized and with plenty of advertising funds, Perot only got 8%.

    I think Johnson will do very well for a Libertarian candidate this year, especially out west. But that means something along the lines of 5%. If he does great, it is 8-9%. But I just don’t see him getting to 10%, either nationally or in a particular state, even New Mexico.

  14. heragain says:

    John Anderson. 7%. *sigh*