This week I was granted access to some of the polling data gathered by a new local communications firm, Out of the Box. One of the men behind the curtain is Richard Korn, former Democratic candidate for Auditor. Richard sat down with me to answer questions about the polling that Out of the Box did for local races, including Insurance Commissioner, SD11 (Deluca v. Townsend), Mayor of Wilmington and County Executive.
If you are a registered Democrat in New Castle County (and you are a likely voter) you probably received a call from Out of the Box. Their polls were probably most memorable for their brevity. Usually just a single question, they got right to the heart of the goal of the poll. “Hello, as a voter in [name the location], your opinion matters. Please answer the following question:” and then the old “if the election were held today…” question. That’s it.
Deluca v Townsend
It was obvious to OOTB where this race was going with a week left. Townsend was pulling over 40% with Deluca hovering around 30% and only 23% still undecided. Certainly the people that commissioned the poll (the poll was sponsored by an organization that supported Deluca) had reached out to Deluca to tell him that things weren’t looking good. But the rumors that I’m hearing from other people about this is that Deluca was in serious denial.
By the time the Saturday before the election rolled around, the deal was done. Townsend had risen in the polls to over 50% and Deluca had dropped to about 27%. The remaining undecideds broke 2:1 for Deluca on election day, but the final tally was to 58-42.
You wouldn’t know it looking at the comments here on DL, but the mayors race wasn’t even close. Even as far back as mid-August, the race belonged to Dennis Williams. Williams had 28% and a 9 point lead over his next closest competitor (Kevin Kelly). Williams had a base of power in RD1 and 2, whereas Kelly and Montgomery split RDs 3 and 4.
On election day, Williams and Kelly each picked up 40% of the undecided voters. And that is enough to Call Dennis P. Williams “Mr. Mayor”.
In the next post I’ll talk about what the New Castle County Executive and Council President polling showed and when.
From the comments, I have realized some of the data that I left out. I apologize for that. Here is more detailed information about the polls above.
Both polls were robocalls made only to likely Democratic voters in SD11 consisting of the same script both times and similar to the one above. The poll consisted of only one question.September 4 & 5 Total polls completed=175 Deluca: 30.9 Townsend: 42.9 Undecided: 26.2 September 7 & 8 Total Polls completed=175 Deluca: 29.1 Townsend: 48 Undecided: 22.9 Wilmington Mayor This poll was conducted August 11 & 12 via robocall to likely Democratic voters inside of Wilmington. It consisted of a single poll question similar to the phrasing above. Total polls completed=910 Bovell: 8.7 Kelly: 19.2 Montgomery: 17.7 Williams: 24.5 Undecided: 26.9