TGIF Polling Report [9.21.12]

Holy Bajeebus. YouGov dropped a metric ton of polls on us yesterday, and their results turned Ohio, Virginia, and Florida a lighter shade of blue. I might have to read up on Nate Silver’s grading on YouGuv. Other states got bluer, like Nevada, Michigan, Iowa and New Hampshire. No state changed hands though, and we are stuck with the same numbers on our Electoral College map as we have been for weeks: Obama 347, Romney 191. The stability of the race is a feature.

A refresher on my methodology in coloring the map: 1) I do not count Rasmussen or other obviously Republican polls; 2) I prefer Registered Voter results versus Likely Voter results (although by now the transition to likely voter models is almost universal); and 3) if we have multiple polls in a state on one day, then the majority finding rules. And if you want a refresher on why as state is a particular color, the legend key is at the bottom of the map.

Here is the new map:

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 47
NATIONAL–Ipsos/Reuters: Obama 48, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 38 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking w/leaners: Obama 50, Romney 47
NATIONAL–Univ. of Connecticut: Obama 46, Romney 43
NATIONAL–Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll: Obama 50, Romney 43

Key finding: When asked if they were better off than you were four years ago, likely voters responded “almost exactly in thirds: in the poll, 31% say they are better off than four years ago, while 34% say they are worse off and 34% say they are about the same.”

“Overall, 48% say they believe the country is better off because Obama won in 2008, while 41% say the nation would be in a stronger position today if another candidate had won.”

STATE POLLS
MICHIGAN–YouGov: Obama 51, Romney 42
MICHIGAN–Detroit News: Obama 52, Romney 38

Two polls, one showing a 9 point Obama lead, and another showing a 14 point Obama lead. I will be conservative and cautious and go with the 9 point lead. Lean Obama

CALIFORNIA–PPIC: Obama 53, Romney 39

Strong Obama

COLORADO–NBC News/Marist: Obama 50, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)
COLORADO–YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 45

Two polls with LV models showing a either a 5 point lead or a 4 point lead. An RV model shows a 6 point lead. Majority rules 2-1 Lean over Slim, so Colorado is Lean Obama.

CONNECTICUT–Univ. of Connecticut: Obama 53, Romney 32

Strong Obama

FLORIDA–We Ask America–R: Obama 49, Romney 46
FLORIDA–YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 46

Two polls, both indicating a lead in the 2-3 point range for Obama, which means Florida is Slim Obama.

IOWA–NBC News/Marist: Obama 50, Romney 42 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 40 (RV)
IOWA–YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 42

Two polls, both LV models showing a 6-8 point lead for the President, while a RV model shows a 11 point lead. Majority rules, 2-1, so Iowa is Lean Obama

MASSACHUSETTS–Univ. of Mass-Lowell: Obama 59, Romney 36 (LV); Obama 60, Romney 35 (RV)

Strong Obama

NEVADA–CNN/ORC: Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 44 (RV)
NEVADA–Rasmussen: Obama 47, Romney 45
NEVADA–YouGov: Obama 51, Romney 43

So we have a Rasmussen poll showing a 2 point lead for O. And two LV models showing a 3 point lead and a 8 point lead. And an RV model showing a 6 point lead. We throw Rasmussen out and we are left with a majority of Lean 2, Slim 1, and thus Nevada is Lean Obama.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–YouGov: Obama 47, Romney 40

New Hampshire returns to Lean Obama

NORTH CAROLINA–High Point University: Obama 46, Romney 43
NORTH CAROLINA–YouGov: Obama 46, Romney 46

We have two polls showing either a tie or a 3 point lead. We will go with the slim 3 point lead so NC is Slim Obama.

OHIO–Caddell and McLaughlin–R: Obama 47, Romney 44
OHIO–YouGov: Obama 47, Romney 44

Two polls showing a three point lead, so Ohio moves to Slim Obama.

PENNSYLVANIA–Susquehanna Research–R: Obama 48, Romney 47
PENNSYLVANIA–We Ask America–R: Obama 48, Romney 42
PENNSYLVANIA–YouGov: Obama 52, Romney 43

One poll is not like the other. Susquehanna Research is a Republican outfit, and since their result is so at variance with the others, we will through it out as a cooked poll. The other two show a 6 point and a 9 point lead for Obama, which means PA is a Lean Obama state.

VIRGINIA–YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 44

Slim Obama

WISCONSIN–NBC News/Marist: Obama 50, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 43 (RV)
WISCONSIN–PPP: Obama 52, Romney 45
WISCONSIN–Rasmussen: Obama 49, Romney 46
WISCONSIN–YouGov: Obama 48, Romney 46

We have a 5 point lead, a 3 point lead in a Rasmussen poll, a 7 point lead in an RV model, and a 2 point lead. We throw Rasmussen out, and are left with Lean 2, Slim 1. We go with Lean Obama.

SENATE POLLS
ARIZONA–Unidentified Republican Pollster: Richard Carmona (D) 44, Jeff Flake (R) 39
FLORIDA–We Ask America–R: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
FLORIDA–YouGov: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 44, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
MASSACHUSETTS–Univ. of Mass-Lowell: Sen. Scott Brown (R) 49, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45 (LV); Sen. Scott Brown (R) 50, Elizabeth Warren (D) 44 (RV)
MICHIGAN–Glengariff Group for the Detroit News: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50, Pete Hoekstra (R) 34
MICHIGAN–YouGov: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 46, Pete Hoekstra (R) 40
NEVADA–Rasmussen: Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 41
NEVADA–YouGov: Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 35
NEW JERSEY–Fairleigh Dickinson: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 50, Joe Kyrillos (R) 36 (LV); Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 33 (RV)
OHIO–YouGov: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 42
PENNSYLVANIA–YouGov: Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 38
VIRGINIA–YouGov: Tim Kaine (D) 43, George Allen (R) 42
WISCONSIN–NBC News/Marist: Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 46 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 44
WISCONSIN–YouGov: Tommy Thompson (R) 48, Tammy Baldwin (D) 42

GOVERNOR POLLS
NORTH CAROLINA–YouGov: Pat McCrory (R) 48, Walter Dalton (D) 32