Tuesday Open Thread [9.18.12]
Purely Pacific Northwest from John Eklund on Vimeo.
“All campaigns have their ups and downs, but the last three weeks for Mitt Romney have been about as brutal as we can remember for any presidential candidate, especially this close to the election. First, the biggest speech of Romney’s life got overshadowed by the Clint Eastwood stunt. Then came President Obama’s significant bounce in the polls after the two political conventions. After that, Romney found himself on the defensive for his reaction to embassy attacks in Egypt and Libya. Next, Politico reported about infighting and disorganization inside the Romney campaign. Finally, all of these events were capped off yesterday by the surreptitiously recorded video of Romney…”
“What is so potentially deadly about this video is the timing, because it comes as the Romney campaign was already viewed to be behind and in crisis. Back in late July, we wrote that the presidential contest had entered halftime with Obama leading, 14-13. Now after the 3rd Quarter (the Ryan pick, the conventions, and post-convention period), Obama has scored two uncontested touchdowns, bringing it to 28-13. And now we head to the 4th Quarter (the debates).”
Prime Minister David Cameron and the Brits are no Romney fans, according to Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein, who relates Cameron’s remarks:
Said Weinstein: “I witnessed Prime Minister saying to a group of people, myself included, that Mitt Romney had that unique distinction of uniting all of England against him with his various remarks. On behalf of my love of England, I have to support the President who is anything but making faux-pas.”
“Because he is being graded on a curve with a bunch of guys who jump into the Sea of Galilee because they want to be closer to God.” — Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), quoted by The New Republic, on why Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) has developed a “big thinker reputation.”
Ezra Klein reviews a new book by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien called “The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter,” and concludes: Mitt Romney is in trouble.
But I didn’t realize quite how dire Romney’s situation was until I began reading [Erikson and Wlezien’s work].
What Erikson and Wlezien did is rather remarkable: They collected pretty much every publicly available poll conducted during the last 200 days of the past 15 presidential elections and then ran test after test on the data to see what we could say about the trajectory of presidential elections. Their results make Romney’s situation look very dire.
For instance: The least-stable period of the campaign isn’t early in the year or in the fall. It’s the summer. That’s because the conventions have a real and lasting effect on a campaign.
“The party that gains pre- to post-convention on average improves by 5.2 percentage points as measured from our pre- and post-convention benchmarks,” write Erikson and Wlezien. “On average, the party that gains from before to after the conventions maintains its gain in the final week’s polls. In other words, its poll numbers do not fade but instead stay constant post-conventions to the final week.”
This year, it was the Democrats who made the biggest gains from before to after the conventions. Obama is leading by 3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, about double his lead before the Republican convention. If that doesn’t fade by the end of the week or so — that is, if it proves to be a real lead rather than a post-convention bounce — then there’s simply no example in the past 15 elections of a candidate coming back from a post-convention deficit to win the popular vote.
This is about the point where I’m supposed to write: That said, the race remains close, and the debates are coming soon. It’s still anyone’s game.
But the most surprising of Erikson and Wlezien’s results, and the most dispiriting for the Romney campaign, is that unlike the conventions, the debates don’t tend to matter.
There is A LOT in this campaign that i have been worried about. the media, the conventions, other democrats….. but the debates are where I’ve thought that Obama could either make up ground if needed, widen a close lead, or put the nail in the coffin. If Romney cant find a way to close the gap before the debates, he is doomed. Deibold will have to get really creative to convince us he won.
All New Castle County schools have cancelled after-school activities due to possible severe weather. NCC is under tornado watch.
Some things about this story bother me. http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20120918/NEWS/309180039/Girlfriend-disputes-cop-s-story-fatal-shooting?nclick_check=1
The quick version: A man called a crisis hotline Saturday night and said he felt suicidal and had a weapon. Delaware State Police dispatched to the home, man gets in car, eventually drives toward the police car, policeman shoots and kills man.
Why was one state trooper sent to the home of a man who said he felt suicidal? Where was the mental health expert, or the hostage negotiator, someone who could talk to the man and attempt to get him to go somewhere for an evaluation?
Also, investigators have recovered 35 bullet casings from the scene. 35! I’m not sure what could justify that many shots at a man in a car. I don’t like to question how others do their job (although plenty of people want to tell me how to do mine, including police), but there must be more to this story.
If police sent a mental health expert or hostage negotiator (?) to every call for a suicidal person, there would be more MH experts on staff than actual troopers. You are a moron.
If someone drives a car directly at me and I have a gun, darn right I’m pulling the trigger until he stops.
I hate to second guess on situations like these. This police officer is responding to a call with imperfect knowledge or maybe even bad info. It was dispatched as perp having a weapon. Cops are getting shot and/or killed on a daily basis and he knows it. I do not think it is fair to question this young police officer’s courage or his actions as this guy clearly wanted to commit suicide-by cop. This police officer had no way of knowing to what length this guy would go to make sure that he went through with his suicide by cop wish and I am sure dying in the line of duty that day was not something this young police officer wanted to happen.
Well Cass it’s been a week since the Primary and over 10 days since you ran with your FAKE hot tip on a FAKE Photoshopped phoney sign stealing picture…. any updates for us????
Speaking of a need for mental health professionals…
I guess when one of yours makes a baseless unsupported accusation they get a pass:)?
The guy called a crisis hotline. Isn’t that why they exist? To provide some sort of support? I don’t blame anyone for sending the police since the guy said he had a gun, but it appears there was no attempt to render any other kind of aid. Like I said, there must be more to this story.
“This police officer had no way of knowing to what length this guy would go to make sure that he went through with his suicide by cop wish…”
Not to be nitpicking, but we don’t know if the caller was trying to commit suicide by cop. That’s what it looks like based on the currently available information; I think Mike is saying we need more information.
Wouldn’t the officer need to reload to fire 35 bullets?
Way to advance a serious conversation SW, you are the moron. The police are the first line of defense here. Mental health awareness and training have advanced a lot in the past 10 years. The officer involved will be, is being debriefed on the event. There will be a conclusion. The officer and the decedents family both deserve an examination of the actual facts and circumstances.
Do you think crisis hotlines have on-call field staff 24/7 to intercede in these cases?
My god, this place is thick with frigging idiots.
Cops today ARE the front-line mental health professionals in these cases. They shouldn’t be put in that situation, but they are.
Edited to add: Joe, you and I cross-posted. I think we actually agree on this. My disgust was with the clueless idiots who think that there is a massive corps of MH pros standing by to render aid at all hours to every person whose family calls 911 panicking because their son / brother / daughter is waving a gun and talking about ending it. Cops receive a layperson’s training in these cases. Their job is to defuse and disarm. Sometimes that is not possible.
They now receive quite a bit beyond lay persons training. Advances have been made. A MH person can not always be on site especially initially but Police have professional advice available remotely to augment training. As I said we don’t know what happened here it will play out in due course.
“If someone drives a car directly at me and I have a gun, darn right I’m pulling the trigger until he stops.”
That account is in dispute. Try dialing back the outrage and turning on your critical thinking skills.
Every cop knows what the rules on deadly force are. This officer’s account might be true, and it might not be; it’s quite amazing how many Delawareans have been aiming their cars at police officers these days.
To turn around your statement, if I wrongfully shot someone dead, darn right I’m going to lie about the circumstances to avoid dismissal. I’m not saying that’s the case, but it’s a possibility until we know more.
I’m not addressing the account, Geezer. I’m saying what I would do.
Sig P229 comes with 10 or 12 round magazines, and can be reloaded with follow up magazines in about a second.
If the the man intentionally aimed the car at the officer, the officers response was justified. A car is a deadly weapon.
I *was* intentionally struck by my own car when I was violently carjacked a few years ago. The man could have not hit me, but chose to aim and accelerate in my direction, hitting me around 25-30 mph. On purpose. In court, he was charged, amongst other felonies, with assault with a deadly weapon/possession of a deadly weapon during the commission of a felony because he intentionally used the car to maim and/or cause immediate harm. The judge said it was the first time that the statute had been applied with a civilian being the victim.
And if I had a gun, yes, I would have pulled the trigger till it went click.
“If someone drives a car directly at me”
That’s a big IF. The guy who knows the other side of the story is dead.
Apparently moving the car in any direction now justifies use of deadly force. Even if no shots are fired you will end up with a bogus attempted assault/deadly weapon charge.
@meatball – yes the mags hold that much – and there is also one in the chamber, ready to go
so, count the shots – then add one….
You only get one in the chamber for the first magazine. I poked around online and found a 14 round aftermarket sig magazine in .357 Sig, though. Not sure if these are issued or whether officers are allowed to carry “non-issued” equipment like this. Hope he wasn’t using Zombie Max ammo.
Quote of the day. Guess who…
“If somebody’s dumb enough to ask me to go to a political convention and say something, they’re gonna have to take what they get.”
Oh yeah, I heard it tonight. Someone can’t catch a break… and I love it.
I heard it too. LOL! LOL! LOL!
@Linda–“Cops are getting shot and/or killed on a daily basis…”
Where is this happening? In Delaware? No. In the USA? Once again, no.
I couldn’t quickly find stats for officers wounded by gunshots but not killed. Below are the killed in the line of duty stats for the USA.
2012 YTD: USA-84, Delaware 0.
2011: USA-173, Delaware 1.
Source:
http://www.odmp.org/search/year?year=2011 http://www.odmp.org/search/year?year=2012
Right, Roland, only 84 cops were shot so far this year. Thanks for clearing that up. Really sticking it to Linda.
Douche.
A cop getting killed in the line of duty every other or third day doesn’t make it any better.
SA-
No one wants to see cops killed in the line of duty, but it’s a bit of a stretch when one exaggerates by a factor of 2. My intention wasn’t to “stick it” to Linda, but merely present her with the facts.
Police work is far less dangerous than many jobs. I’m tired of the public safety lobby telling us how cops and fire fighters “put their lives on the line for us every day” when that simply isn’t true.
SA-Please check your facts. Only 33 cops killed by gunfire in the line of duty so far this year. Again, I don’t want to see ANY cops killed in the line of duty, but please get the FACTS straight.
We criticize conservatives/republicans for playing fast & loose w/ the facts. We should not behave like them.
Fisherman. Most deadliest job. I read a story a couple years back about sports and fishing is the deadliest sport too. Baseball was second. But police officers are in the top ten, according to the report I read.
@Pencadermom-
Deadliest job varies from year to year. Police/Sheriff’s Officer is almost always in the bottom half of the top ten deadliest jobs. Fire fighter often falls out of the top ten.
But I guess the difference would be knowing the police are on duty. Although I think fisherman have an important job and it looks like hard work, I don’t sleep better at night knowing I can go buy shrimp at Shoprite.
Police rarely protect anyone from crime. They can’t possibly do that & they’re not required to by law. They simply respond after the crime has been committed–if you’re lucky. They’ll often take a report over the phone for property crimes & do nothing more than provide you w/ a report number for your insurance company.
“No one wants to see cops killed in the line of duty.”
You should have stopped there.
Please just stop digging.
RDLB you are surpassing idiot and bigot and going for raving lunatic, you should be proud;)
Right. Chad Spicer and Joseph Szczerba were just killed by paper cuts incurred while taking reports. They weren’t trying to apprehend anyone. Sorry, I must have missed that in reading about their funerals.
As to the facts: In 2010, 508 Delaware police officers were assaulted on the job. That’s one in five. Nationally, about 3.5 percent of officers assaulted were attacked with a gun (1,831); 11.6 percent of those officers were injured. Data is from the FBI. So you can see that it does indeed happen more than daily.
Jackass.
Roland, see the pictures yet of officer Foxs’ pregnant wife and baby girl attending his service? They lost their husband and dad because he was out protecting people.
Pencadermom, there are also photos of civilian families grieving their innocent loved ones killed by police, who almost always escape appropriate consequences. Try again.
Google:
police taser death
police death unarmed man
police death wrong house
No seriously; google those phrases. Try to ignore the most sensationalist ones and just read the straight news accounts. It is heartrending.
Use Of Force is out of control; accountability is nearly non-existent.
Puck,
The vast majority of use of deadly force cases that I’ve read about involve situations where lives were clearly at risk. Delaware’s cases are all up online at the AG’s website. You’d be amazed how many people think pointing a gun at a cop is a good idea.
In no way am I saying there are no unjustified shootings. Some are clearly bad; the circumstances from the vehicular threat cases this year deserve to be examined in full. But get off your high horse for a minute and out yourself in the cop’s shoes. If you have a gun, a car is heading toward you at high speed, and you can’t move out of the way, would you pull the trigger or stand there nobly and get pancaked?
I’m not even sure why I’m addressing you on this topic. The deaths of one group of people does not justify the deaths of another. That’s a false equivalency.
If a car is moving toward you, shooting the driver wont do a thing unless their reaction is to slam on the breaks. Maybe they werent aiming for you, maybe they were… what you DO have now is a speeding car that is definitely not in control. Unless you are in a alley, there is always a way to ump out of the way.
I love how brave people think they will be with a gun in their hands. “oh, if only i was there with a gun” Unless you have been trained and experienced in a combat zone, your little silhouette paper man with the circles and numbers on him has not gotten you ready to be the “hero”
Romney stands by his 47% moochers statement, but says it was “inelegant.”
TPM has a clip of Stephen Colbert delivering that core message with a little more elegance and “panache.”
Just in case you missed the video, Romney puts it in writing. Just when he needs to stop digging, Mitt deploys a backhoe.
Romney gave a gift to Democratic candidates below the presidential level. Brown McMahon and others have already distanced themselves from Romney’s comments.