The Polling Report [9.13.12]

Filed in National by on September 13, 2012

We have a lot of polls, but nothing in a state changing from Romney to Obama or vice versa. Instead, we have a map that is getting darker in some expected sports and lighter in some unexpected spots. Meanwhile, we have a Fox News poll that is most likely being ignored on their own air.

Here is the map.

NATIONAL–Fox News: Obama 48, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)

“The poll finds the president has a significant advantage on most issues and candidate traits. Voters trust Obama more than Romney on foreign policy (+15 points), education (+14 points), Medicare (+11 points), health care (+9 points) and terrorism (+8 points). Romney bests Obama outright on just one issue: cutting government spending (+13 points).”

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 50, Romney 43
NATIONAL–Ipsos-Reuters: Obama 48, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 46, Romney 45
NATIONAL–YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 45

STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–SurveyUSA: Obama 57, Romney 35

Strong Obama, as always. Who was our insane wingnut commenter that said Romney was going to win California? Was that you Rusty? Yeah, how is that 22 point lead treating ya?

MICHIGAN–EPIC-MRA: Obama 47, Romney 37

This is our most traveled state this election. Michigan has been Slim Romney, Tied, Slim Obama, Lean Obama and now, it is back to Strong Obama.

MONTANA–PPP: Romney 46, Obama 43, Johnson 7

Since Gary Johnson is on the ballot in Montana, I am going with the numbers that include him. Now, I will be shocked if the Libertarian gets that high of a number. But 5% cannot be ruled out. Remember, Bill Clinton won Montana once because of a strong third party challenge. Can history repeat?

NEW MEXICO–PPP: Obama 53, Romney 42

Back to Strong Obama.

TEXAS–WPA Opinion Research–R: Romney 55, Obama 40

Back to Strong Romney. We were stuck with a poll for months that has Romney’s lead under 10 points.

WASHINGTON–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Obama 53, Romney 42

Strong Obama

ARIZONA–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Romney 53, Obama 44

Looks like Arizona was a pipe dream this year. Sure, this poll moves AZ from Strong to Lean Romney, but there is no doubt that Romney will win it.

FLORIDA–SurveyUSA: Obama 48, Romney 44

Slim Obama, and will likely stay that way up until the election.

MINNESOTA–SurveyUSA: Obama 50, Romney 40

This moves MN back to Strong Obama territory.

SENATE POLLS
ARIZONA–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 43
FLORIDA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 36
OHIO–PPP: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 40
CALIFORNIA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 37
MICHIGAN–EPIC-MRA: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38
MINNESOTA–SurveyUSA: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 34
MINNESOTA–Wenzel Strategies for the Bills campaign: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 52, Kurt Bills (R) 38
MONTANA–PPP: Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Denny Rehberg (R) 43, Dan Cox (L) 8
NEW MEXICO–PPP: Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 41

GOVERNOR POLLS
WASHINGTON–PPP for the League of Conservation Voters: Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42
WASHINGTON–SurveyUSA: Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 44

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Comments (14)

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  1. jason330 says:

    The Intrade electoral college map went from 303 for Obama to 332 overnight.

    As I mentioned on another thread I think it is interesting because it had been at 303 for months.

  2. Jason330 says:

    Also – Has any Presidential candidate ever lost his home state?

    Romney = epic fail

  3. Geezer says:

    Gore lost Tennessee. McGovern lost South Dakota.

  4. socialistic ben says:

    Al Gore = Tennessee

  5. Jason330 says:

    Romney is the Republican McGovern. The takeaway will be that he wasn’t conservative enough.

    LMAO!

  6. college says:

    Massachusetts is the most liberal state in the nation, the only thing that doesn’t make sense concerning that is that Romney was even elected Governor. Can’t really fault him for losing MA. Michigan, on the other hand, that’s a kicker.

  7. raymond krauss says:

    Polling at this point in time is useless, when the tsunami of wall street money hits in October, sadly these polls will turn as the big money people buy the election with a massive ad campaign, that,s life in our non-democratic oligarchy, reality sucks for sure.

  8. geezer says:

    Really trenchant analysis, Raymond. Thanks for sharing.

  9. raymond krauss says:

    It,s the “NEW ORDER” thanks to Citizens United geezer, our founding fathers would not be amused by this subversion of democracy by the conservative SCOTUS.

  10. Liberal Elite says:

    @rk “…when the tsunami of wall street money hits in October, sadly these polls will turn as the big money people buy the election…”

    Or, the people in swing states may be so sick of ads and phone calls by then that they will disconnect their phones and go read a book.

    There is some real indication that ad saturation has already been reached (and passed). Did you notice that the Dems advertised heavily during their convention, but the GOP didn’t. TOO LATE bozos!

  11. geezer says:

    Again, really trenchant analysis. Thanks.

  12. raymond krauss says:

    @Liberal elite; your thoughts are on my wish list, but having spent 40 years using T.V. adds to fatten my wallet it,s dangerous to discount the power of the tube, especially expensive prime time spots. Wall street needs the republican trickle down theorists and to spend millions to protect their trillions is just good business, so plan for Dubya redux for the next four years at least.

  13. Geezer says:

    Raymond: Since you’re so good at predicting the future, please meet me at Delaware Park, down in The Grove. I need some advice on Saturday’s 9th race.

    If there’s anything more useless on the internet that some lamebrain’s predictions for the future, I can’t think of what it might be.

  14. raymond krauss says:

    Actually the 2 horse is a lock and is it better to ignore the corrupt system that,s been put in place to replace our democratic system our to point out what will happen because of it, perhaps a little anger at the best government money can buy is better than to take false hope from polls that will be rendered meaning less in November. Facing reality is the way to solve problems, accepting myths and lies only digs the hole deeper.