The Polling Report [8.29.12]

Filed in National by on August 29, 2012

A small little polling report for you today, after the motherload of polls released yesterday. There is only one state level poll, and that is of Iowa by PPP, which changes Iowa to Lean Obama to Slim Obama. Meanwhile, some national polls are detecting a bounce from the GOP convention …. for President Obama.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Romney-Ryan 47, Obama-Biden 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Ipsos/Reuters): Obama-Biden 46, Romney-Ryan 42 (Likely Voters); Obama-Biden 45, Romney-Ryan 39 (Registered Voters)

Obama and Vice President Joe Biden were ahead of Romney and running mate Paul Ryan by 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. The Obama team led the Republicans by 16 percentage points among independents, a key voting bloc that could tip the election in battleground states..

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 50, Romney-Ryan 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 45
IOWA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama-Biden 47, Romney-Ryan 45

Jonathan Bernstein:

Hey, liberals: prepare now. Barack Obama will likely be losing when the pollsters try again after Mitt Romney closes out the Republican National Convention on Thursday night. He may well be back ahead, however, after his speech at the Democratic National Convention next week. My advice? Take a quick look at the polling averages right now — Pollster has Obama up by one percentage point — and then ignore the polling until a full week has passed after the Democratic Convention. By then, we’ll start to have a really good sense of what’s going on.

We’ve had a bunch of excellent summaries from political scientists in the last few days of how and why convention bumps happen, and what to expect this time around. We basically see two kinds of movement during the conventions: one temporary, and one permanent.

Nate Silver:

Nine of the 15 polls have President Obama ahead by either one or two percentage points. Three have Mr. Obama ahead by a slightly larger margin, between four and six percentage points. Another three have Mr. Romney ahead, each by a single percentage point.
On average between the 15 surveys, Mr. Obama leads by 1.6 percentage points. While there are some modest differences between them, pretty much every poll is within the margin of error of the others.

Enjoy this moment of relative consensus in the polls; it probably won’t last long.

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  1. stonesgal says:

    Wow, somehow I missed the Great Assumptions from 6/19/12 posted by El Somnambulo and commented on by jason330 and Nancy Willing, regarding the Keeley sponsored HB363 on bail bondsmen. The leap from Keeley and Williams to Bovell was a bit of a stretch, considering that Bovell tried to oust Keeley for lack of concern in her district, and is currently opposing Williams for the Mayor spot. I guess the ‘stinky quid pro quo’ assumption, as well as the assumption that Bovell would withdraw and put his support behind Williams, has proven to be incorrect. I suppose for the conspiracy-theorists out there, it was natural for them to conclude that Bovell was in cahoots with those 2, but a little bit of research would probably have given them a different conclusion. Allusions, inuendo, insinuations, personal opinions – all great reasons why I don’t read blogs on a regular basis. That’s just my opinion…