The Polling Report [7.24.12]

Gallup finds that President Obama averaged 46.8% job approval during his 14th quarter in office.

“The recent and continuing improvement in his approval rating, though, is a positive sign for his re-election prospects, but it remains below the 50% level that virtually assures a president of a second term in office. Obama appears in much better shape now than the two recently elected presidents who were denied a second term — Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — both of whom averaged below 40% approval their 14th quarters in office.”

We’ve got a ton of new state polls from over the weekend, and they change our map a little bit. Obama gains 1 electoral vote from last week’s total of 318 and Romney loses 14, dropping from 220 to 206.

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Gallup Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 44
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (CBS/NYT): Romney 47, Obama 46
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (NPR): Obama 47, Romney 45

This NPR poll finds that in 12 battleground states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 46% each. Of course, these types of polls are as meaningless as national polls, since elections are won state by state in the electoral college.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT (Fox News): Obama 45, Romney 41
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–PRESIDENT (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Obama 52, Romney 33

This keeps California in the Strong Obama column.

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA): Obama 48, Romney 43

This moves Florida to Lean Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT (National Research for Civitas Institute—R): Romney 49, Obama 48

Even though this is a Republican poll, Civitas has not proven to be as egregious and untrustworthy as Rasmussen, so I will count it and move North Carolina to the Slim Romney column.

PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 48, Romney 44

This is a Rasmussen poll, so it doesn’t count in our map.

MINNESOTA–PRESIDENT (SurveyUSA for KSTP): Obama 46, Romney 40

This puts Minnesota in the Lean Obama column.

VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (Quinnipiac): Obama 44, Romney 44.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Virginia voters are sharply split along gender and political lines about the presidential race. The two candidates equally hold their own political bases and are splitting the key independent vote down the middle. One small edge that President Obama has is likability. Voters have a slightly more favorable opinion of the president than they do Mitt Romney.”

NEW MEXICO–PRESIDENT (Public Policy Polling): Obama 49, Romney 44.

This puts New Mexico in the Lean Obama column.

NEVADA–PRESIDENT (We Ask America): Obama 49, Romney 43

This puts Nevada in the Lean Obama column.

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT (We Ask America): Obama 49, Romney 42

This puts Wisconsin in the Lean Obama column.

SENATE POLLS
MINNESOTA–SENATOR (SurveyUSA for KSTP): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 31
PENNSYLVANIA–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 38
CALIFORNIA–SENATOR (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 49, Elizabeth Emken (R) 30
FLORIDA–SENATOR (SurveyUSA): Connie Mack IV (R) 48, Bill Nelson (D) 42
OHIO–SENATOR (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 42
WASHINGTON–SENATOR (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 40
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 47, Joe Kyrillos (R) 34
NEVADA–SENATOR (Magellan Strategies): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 42