The 62 District Strategy for Both Parties [2012]

Filed in National by on July 7, 2012

So as El Som says, we are coming down to it. El Som covers the recent filings this week in his Political Weekly column, the most important of which are for the newly open seats that Speaker Gilligan (the 19th) and Terry Schooley (the 23rd) are vacating. As he mentions, none of the endorsed GOP statewide candidates have filed. And as we will see below, the GOP is lagging far behind the Democrats in finding candidates for the General Assembly.

The filing deadline for individual candidates is July 10. If Jeff Cragg, Sher Valenzuela, Kevin Wade, and Tom Kovach all fail to file their candidacies by then, all hope is not lost for the GOP and it doesn’t mean Governor Markell et al are automatically reelected without opposition. For there is another deadline further out in the distance: September 4, 2012. That is the deadline for Certificates of Nomination from the two major parties to fill ballot lines for offices in which there is not a primary election.

So for a lot of the races below, the real deadline to keep in mind is September 4. So the GOP has about 8 more weeks to scramble to fill all of those empty spaces you will see below in our charts. Still, all of those empty spaces points to a horrible recruiting failure on the part of the State GOP. Especially for a party that once, earlier this year, had designs on recapturing the Senate after many decades.

Let’s look at the Senate first.

DE.SENATE.2012

A word about the color coding. It a race is colored blue, I expect the Democrats to win it. If it is colored red, I expect the Republicans to win it. If it is yellow, it is a competitive toss up race that might go either way. Some races are more toss-up-ly than others.

Since our last update on the Senate, we have had Eric Anderson, cousin of Delusional David, file as a Democratic candidate in the 3rd SD, currently held by Senator Bob Marshall. Anderson joins Tim Meades, who was already running. Marshall, who was expected to run for Mayor of Wilmington, has backed off that plan. But he has not yet filed to run for reelection. Will he retire? He might be persuaded to now since he seems to have a pretty credible challenger in Anderson who will not drop out should Marshall file for reelection. Indeed, I think Anderson’s filing is an indication that Marshall is not going to run. Why do I say that? Well, months ago, perhaps even last year, Anderson announced he was going to run to replace Marshall, who at the time was going to run for Mayor. And then he went quiet for months as Marshall vacillated. Now he is back and filed. That tells me he was waiting to file until he found out Marshall’s intentions. And he filed, which means he is confident Marshall will not run. Well, we will find out Tuesday, as that is Marshall’s drop dead deadline to file, since there is already a primary for his seat. Regardless of whether he gets in the race or not, this seat is reliably Democratic.

In the 19th SD, we have a Democratic candidate, and a great one at that: Jane Hovington. If Eric Bodenweiser wins the primary against Booth, that race is going to get really really interesting. Will Sussex teabaggers be able to hide their racism? I doubt it. I rate this race as a toss up because it might just become competitive if Bodie girl wins the GOP primary. But in reality, it will probably stay red no matter who is the GOP nominee.

In the 21st SD, Senator Bob Venables (D) now has two opponents: Republican Byrant Richardson and Libertarian John Potter. For that reason alone, I have moved this race back to the Democratic column from the toss up column. If the non-Democratic conservative vote is split (and yes, Venalbes is a conservative), then it is hard to see how he can be beaten.

As I have said before, the GOP has lost its chance to win a majority in the Senate. The Senate has 21 members, 14 of them are Democrats and 7 are Republicans. The GOP would need to pickup 4 seats to gain of majority of 11. They needed to win the 8th (Sokola), the 4th (Katz), the 21st (Venables), and the 20th (open, Bunting retiring), as well as defend the 12th (Connor), the 5th (Cloutier) and the 6th (open, as Sorenson’s seat was moved downstate). Before there was a challenger to Dori Connor in the 12th, and before Liane Sorenson announced her retirement, it looked like it was possible, as they already had a guaranteed pickup in the 20th as Gerald Hocker is widely expected to replace George Bunting, and a probable pickup in the 4th where House Minority Leader Greg Lavelle was challenging a Senator Katz. So all the GOP would have to do is have Sorenson beat Sokola in the 8th and then win Venables’ seat, and then whomever won the new 6th downstate was gravy.

Now, the GOP must win the 6th, the 4th, the 20th, and the 21st while defending the 12th and the 5th. No margin for error. It’s still possible, but not probable.

To the House!

DE.HOUSE.2012

We have had a lot of changes since our last House update. Not reflected in the chart below because he just filed today is the name of former State Rep. Arthur Scott. He just filed to challenge freshman Representative Stephanie Bolden in the 2nd RD. No matter who wins, this seat is safe Democratic.

In the 22nd RD, Representative Nick Manolakos has finally filed to primary fellow incumbent Republican Rep. Joe Miro. They both were placed into the same district due to redistricting that sent the 20th RD downstate. The winner of this interesting primary will face Democrat David Ellis, who ran in 2010. I have listed this race below as a toss up race, just because of the uncertainty of a Republican primary and wishful thinking on my part. In all likelihood, since the registration is still overwhelmingly GOP, it is likely that this seat stays Republican.

In the 10th RD, Democratic Representative Dennis E. Williams is getting a primary from Sean Matthews. The winner will face Bob Rhodunda (R). Dennis defeated Bod, 55% to 45% in 2010, a Republican year. I am listing this as a toss up race given the competitive nature of the district, but I expect the resilient Williams to survive both challenges.

In the 12th RD, Democrat Frann Anderson has withdrawn from the race against incumbent Representative Deborah Hudson (R). Hudson is now unopposed… for now.

In the 32nd, Brad Bennett has retired to fight his drinking problem. Democrats Michael Tedesco and William McGlumphy have filed to run, as have Republicans Ellis Parrott and Libertarian/Republican Will McVay. I am rating this race a toss up for now since the race is quite unsettled.

In the 40th, Democrats Ray Adkins and Ben Lowe have filed to face Republican Timothy Dukes. All three are seeking to replace retiring Bill Biff Lee. This seat will likely stay Republican.

In the 15th, Valerie Longhurst is being primaried by James Burton. But no Republican challenger yet. In the 31st, wrestlin’ Ron Poliquin is back again to challenge Daryll Scott. Both seats will remain Democratic.

In the 41st, Republican turned Democrat John Atkins now has a Republican opponent, Richard Collins. I would expect Atkins to win.

In the 39th, Republican incumbent Dan Short is being primaried by Patrick Murray. No Democratic opposition as of yet.

And now we get to the 19th and 23rd RDs. The retirements of Terry Schooley and Bob Gilligan have opened the floodgates for Democratic candidates longing to run in these districts. In the 19th, we have Bill Dunn and Kimberly Williams. In the 23rd we have Paul Baumback, Jerry Grant, Claudia Bock and Samba Tata. I have absolutely no idea who is going to win. Jerry Grant would seem to be the establishment candidate in the 23rd, what with his long history with the General Assembly. I am not sure we have an establishment pick yet in the 19th. Both races will remain in the Democratic column no matter who wins. Indeed, not a single Republican has filed for either open race. A horrible failure on the GOP’s part. You mean to tell me that there is not a single Republican in the 19th, waiting for 40 years during Gilligan’s incumbency, waiting patiently until he retired, ready to run?

Indeed, the recruitment failure is writ large across all 62 districts in both the House and the Senate. As of this moment, the state GOP has only had recruited 8 candidates, in addition to their 15 incumbents to contest the 41 districts up for election. They are leaving over half the districts (21) uncontested. In case the geniuses over at the GOP haven’t noticed, that means they have already reelected the Democratic Majority. LOL. Of course, I expect they will find some candidates by September 4th, but still, what a failure. In the Senate, they are leaving 9 seats uncontested. So the Dems would only have to win two contested races to win a majority. Thanks for the gift guys!

On the Democratic side, in the Senate, the Del Dems have left 4 seats uncontested at this point, all downstate: the 15th, the 16th, the 18th and 20th. In the House, the Dems have no candidates yet in 7 races: the 12th, the 21st, the 30th, the 35th, the 36th, the 37th, and the 39th. That’s not good for my tastes, as I always want every seat contested, but so much better than the GOP’s 21.

The Democrats hold a 26-15 majority in the House, and there are no signs yet that this majority is in danger. The Republicans would need to pick up 6 seats to reach 21, enough for a majority. And yet there are only two Democratic seats that I would consider in danger at this point: Dennis Williams in the 10th and open seat in the 32nd. The rest of the toss up districts are currently held by Republicans, so they are playing a lot of defense here, and that is not the position to be in if you want to actually gain seats. Indeed, it is possible for the Dems to gain seats, as the new RDs in the 11th and 20th might fall to them.

Below are maps of the various districts in the Senate and House. Blue seats are held by the Dems, and red by the Republicans. The gray seats are the newly created seats formed by redistricting.

Senate

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  1. How much does Sig Suck at being DEGOP chair? : Delaware Liberal | July 8, 2012
  1. thenewphil says:

    I don’t know which is worse, that you misspelled Lewes or that you said Bill Lee was a retiring Representative.

  2. Delaware Dem says:

    God damn auto correct. I spelled Lewes right. And I spelled Biff right. The computer spelled it wrong.

    I fixed both.

  3. I like your optimism, but think that you’re overly optimistic. I’d have the 20th RD as an R lean, the 22nd as a solid R, and the 29th as an R lean.

    I’d have the 4th SD as an R lean, 5th as a slight R lean, the 6th a D lean, and the 19th a solid R (Hovington’s great, but the district, um, is not hospitable).

    I’m also not sure that the 21st isn’t closer to a toss-up than a D lean.

  4. Delaware Dem says:

    I agree that the 20, 22 and 29 RDs are all leaning R at the moment. I color them yellow because I think those three races will be competitive.

    I also agree that Cloutier has to be favored in the 5th, but again that race is competitive.

    I think you are too pessimistic on Katz’s chances, and that will be a competitive race as well.

  5. PainesMe says:

    I like our odds in the 20th. The 22nd and 29th, we’ll have to wait and see how things start shaping up. I think the 5th gets a boost from the top-ticket D’s that pushes it within reach.

  6. SussexWatcher says:

    Hovington stands no chance unless Bodie wins the primary and she picks up all Booth’s backers horrified by the thought of a nutjob in Dover. She’s black and has very little name recognition. But kudos to her for taking one for the team. If only the party’s other leaders who have empty ballot lines had as much balls.

    The 40th will remain Republican, solidly so. Don’t underestimate Collins in the 41st. He’s a humorless prick, but he’ll have a shitload of developer cash behind him. Atkins has a fight on his hands.

  7. Dave says:

    “horrified by the thought of a nutjob in Dover.”

    While I hate the thought of nutjob calling Sussex County home, I would hate it even more if he were able to inflict his nuttiness on the whole state. Imagine him on his knees (cowboy/hardhat) hat in hand begging the GA to do something like he did at the SC Council meeting over the sheriff bill. Delaware would be a laughing stock on You Tube.

    On the other hand, Hovington’s candidacy just might be the boost that the Booth needs to cement a win in the primary as the denizens of Western Sussex realize that if Bodie wins there is likely to be another black in public office.

  8. thenewphil says:

    El Som: ” the 19th a solid R (Hovington’s great, but the district, um, is not hospitable).”

    SussexWatcher: “Hovington stands no chance… She’s black”

    Dave: “Hovington’s candidacy just might be the boost that the Booth needs to cement a win…as the denizens of Western Sussex realize… there is likely to be another black in public office.”

    When I said the exact same thing a couple days ago, MJ called me an asshole. Mj is an asshole.

  9. SussexWatcher says:

    Phil, I believe what you said was along the lines of “Is that the black woman?”

    By contrast, we’re pointing out the political reality of racism in Sussex County.

  10. thenewphil says:

    What I said was, “the black woman? good luck with that.”

    she’s black and a woman, in sussex county. thats exactly the point i made.

    but you’re right, i bet tiptoeing around western sussex’s race issues will one day solve them.

  11. MJ says:

    While I was out riding my bike around Sussex County today, I noticed that teabaggers Scott Witzke and Don Ayotte have identical yard signs, down to the “honesty, integrity, and hard work” slogan. So much for originality.

  12. MJ says:

    No phil, I said you’re a fucking asshole and I stand by my comment. You said “the black lady, good luck with that.” It was racist and asinine. You come on here time and again and show yourself to be the fucking asshole you truly are. Now go fuck yourself.

    Happy?

  13. MJ says:

    Hovington is a former member of the Georgetown town council and the district now has a larger percentage of minority voters. Don’t count Hovington out based on her sex and race. Sam Wilson is going to have his hands full with a primary challenge and won’t be able to marshal the night riders this time around.

  14. thenewphil says:

    would you be willing to make a wager?

  15. Dave says:

    Just to make it perfectly clear, my snarky comment was directed towards the attitudes of the those in the district who have spent a good part of the last 3 years foaming at mouth about birth certificates, not towards any candidate of race.

    I’m not sure what thenewphil said, but I know what I said and meant.

  16. thenewphil says:

    my comment also spoke to the attitudes of the voters in the 19th. MJ is just a jackass.

  17. MJ says:

    phil, you were talking out of your ass like you always do. You’re a racist piece of shit. Nice try in walking back what you wrote, loser.

  18. WWB says:

    I generally agree with your assessments. I am one of the east Sussex residents who is getting moved into both the new representative and senatorial districts. I suspect the 20th house district leans Republican, but I am hearing good things about Marie Mayor. I mildly disagree about the 6th senate district, however. It has always seemed to me that that district was drawn to be a Democratic district. Lopez I think would have a better chance than Urquhart, but I think that either Staton or Frederick can win the seat. (Notice I don’t even mention Miller…nobody in their right mind is going to vote for him for anything.) Urquhart looks like he is trying to buy the Republican nomination by “yard signing” everyone to death. They’re everywhere!! I know he has money of his own, but is he being backed by the Hudson family? Seems likely.

  19. thenewphil says:

    Hw dr y cll m rcst, y gnrnt fk?

    md th sam pnt vryn ls dd, nl ddn’t sgr ct th chllngs a blck wmn fcs n wstrn sssx.

    MJ, y r pc f sht hmn bng wh scllts btwn lkng fr th wrs n vrn ls nd wllwng n yr wn (mgnd) vctmztn.

    f wr n th 19th, wld vt fr Jn Hvngtn, dspt th lng dds. wldn’t pss n y f y wr n fr.

  20. Steve Newton says:

    DD correct me if I am wrong–if Kovach does not file, then doesn’t Rose Izzo become the nominee automatically, and doesn’t that keep the party from nominating anybody later? Or is there a rule I am not aware of?

  21. MJ says:

    phil – “How dare you call me a racist. I’ve allowed black people on my front porch.”

    There, I fixed that for you.

    BTW, I’m not into water sports, but I’m sure you are and can find someone willing to indulge your fantasy.

  22. Pencadermom says:

    phil, AEIOFU

  23. SussexWatcher says:

    Steve: Correct. The party can only fill an empty ballot line, not name a new candidate.

    MJ: Hovington was on the council for two years about 15 years ago. Hardly a lengthy or distinguished electoral career. Additionally, it appears she deliberately tried to circumvent FOIA by meeting with other officials 1-on-1. (http://attorneygeneral.delaware.gov/office/opinions/1996/ib0596.htm). How does that square with transparency?

    I’m not saying she’s a bad candidate … just that there had to have been better ones.

  24. SussexWatcher says:

    P.S. The money quote from the AG’s opinion: “The fact that Council met in sub-groups to discuss, formulate and execute the November 27, 1995 memorandum suggests that the Council acted deliberately to circumvent the public notice, agenda and record keeping requirements of the Act.”

  25. Delaware Dem says:

    Steve, that is correct.

  26. MJ says:

    So SW, what is your elective experience?

  27. SussexDem40 says:

    I think the 6th SD is definitely in play, especially if Lopez wins the R primary. Staton’s candadicy seems to have lost some steam, but that may just be because it’s summer and residents are
    having fun and not focusing on elections yet. Lopez, however, seems to be doing a better job connecting with the families and parents in the district. I’m not really sure if Bob Frederick is even running. I haven’t seen or heard him anywhere, and he seems to be doing no outreach at all.

  28. Will M says:

    Great write up. There will be a few more Libertarian candidates to come, and hopefully some Independent and Green candidates as well. Our deadline for nominations is a little more complicated. We have to finish our conventions by the end of July, then submit two forms in the middle of August and the beginning of September, respectively. We’re going to try to get as many in as possible this week though to ride on the publicity of everyone talking about what the monopoly parties are doing.

  29. SussexAnon says:

    SussexWatcher, the deadline is Tuesday to file for a race. Feel free to file for the 35th, 36th, 37th, etc. And if you think you can do better than Hovington, primary her.

    Perhaps its time to be a SussexDoer and not a SussexWatcher. Just a suggestion.

    The fact is Bodie is a nut with money and a small base. And people are mad at Booth for the SussexTech job. Neither candidate is a lock on the the district. Lots of p-o’d camps around.

    Hovington has a lot of name recognition in the minority and poorer communities. She grew up in Greenwood and has been involved in the Georgetown Community for decades.

    Easy race? No. But you can’t win if you don’t try and black people have come a long way from no way.

    BTW, the 2nd councilmatic district in Sussex will have a democratic challenger to the Sam Wilson primary. Former Milford School Board Member Gary Wolfe filed on Friday. This is a REALLY important race for Sussex regarding land use.

  30. MJ says:

    Attempts to out people will result in you being banned from this site. SussexWatcher and phil – you have been warned.

  31. Jim Westhoff says:

    There is an element of a Bodenweiser candidacy that should be considered — he is a tireless campaigner, while Booth, well, isn’t.

    In the last election cycle, our districts overlapped a bit, and he outworked everyone, even myself, and I was out every night. I think he visited every registered Republican in the senate district. Booth, however, did very little door knocking.

    This is one of the reasons why Bodenweiser nearly beat Booth last time.

  32. MJ says:

    SW – you really want to get your ass banned from this site? Keep up your veiled outing bullshit and it will happen.

  33. SussexWatcher says:

    OK, here goes again, under MJ’s new censorship regime. I’m trying to be a good citizen here, if Mr. Sensitive will let me.

    MJ: Since when does discussing elections require experience in elective politics? What experience do you and the other bloggers have? Have you ever run for office? Won? Lost?

    You, sir, established that as an apparent criteria for commenting when you replied to my criticism of your response to my observation about Jane Hovington’s electoral experience. So put up or shut up.

    How many votes have you gotten in your lifetime?

  34. PainesMe says:

    Jim – If that’s the case, things may be looking up for Bodenweiser.