There Are 6 Responses So Far. »

1. 

   Comment by Idealist on 8 June 2012 at 12:27 pm:

   http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/

   Nate Silver’s election forecasts are up. Obama is at 61.6% chance to win reelection.
2. 

   Comment by John Young on 8 June 2012 at 1:22 pm:

   mmmm. Bacon.

   Warning, if you even watch this video, your heart may fail.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1IiUAtoNBk
3. 

   Comment by cassandra_m on 8 June 2012 at 2:15 pm:

   If you were planning on placing a bet on I’ll Have Another to win the Belmont tomorrow, you are out of luck.
4. 

   Comment by SussexWatcher on 8 June 2012 at 2:26 pm:

   Michael S. Tedesco has filed to run for the 32nd House seat (Brad Bennett) as a Democrat. Tedesco ran as an unaffiliated candidate for the 34th House seat (Don Blakey) in 2010, and got 5.7 percent.

   When did he file? Because of Elaine Manlove’s inability to manage her staff, we don’t know. The Kent County site says he filed on the 6th (http://electionskc.delaware.gov/newscolumn/2012_Candidates_Filed.shtml), while the state site says May 21 (http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/prim_fcddt.shtml).

   A shoutout to the Elections Department … get your shit together before you embarrass yourselves even more.
5. 

   Comment by Jason330 on 8 June 2012 at 3:47 pm:

   I don’t like Nate’s 538 analysis for the simple reason that Democrats do better when they take a 50 state strategy. This seems to argue for a narrow electoral college strategy that will have Obama, like Gore, trying to pander to Ohio and Florida.

   The model suggests that the campaigns might do best to concentrate their resources. As much as campaign operatives love to talk about how they are expanding the map, contemplating unusual parlays of states in which they reach 270 electoral votes, the election is very likely to come down to a mere handful of states. In many ways, the relative ordering of the states is more predictable than how the election as a whole will play out.
6. 

   Comment by Idealist on 8 June 2012 at 5:17 pm:

   Mitch Crane was just endorsed by the New Castle County Democratic Party!