Polling and Electoral Map Report [5.3.12]
These tracking polls are schizophrenic monsters. I am also tempted to ignore them as the states are where the party is at. But for completeness:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
And we must distinguish national tracking polls from regular national polls:
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (48-43)
And now onto to the states. Virginia gets put in the Strong Obama category for the first time, while Nevada and Wisconsin are just barely not Strong Obama states (at 8 and 9 point leads for the President, respectively). Meanwhile, is Montana competitive?
In a two man race, Romney has a five point lead, just barely in the Lean category. In a three man race with Libertarian Gary Johnson, Montana is too close to call. I am going to go with Montana being a lean Romney state for now.
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 38
NEVADA–PRESIDENT (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 44.
MONTANA (PPP): Romney 48, Obama 43; Romney 43, Obama 41, Gary Johnson (L) 8
WISCONSIN (Marquette Univ. Law School): Obama 51, Romney 42
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR (Marquette Univ. Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Tom Barrett (D); Walker 49, Kathleen Falk (D) 43
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Marquette Univ. Law School): Tom Barrett 38, Kathleen Falk 20, Doug La Follette 8, Kathleen Vinehout 7, Undecided 27
INDIANA–SENATOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY (Magellan Strategies): Sen. Dick Lugar 44, Richard Mourdock 42
VIRGINIA–SENATOR (PPP): Fmr. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) 46, Fmr. Sen. George Allen (R) 45.
So no change to the electoral numbers from yesterday. The only change is coloring Virginia dark blue and Montana light red.
Obama 288
Romney 169
Too Close to Call 81
Remember, the yellow states are too close to call states, which means that either the candidates are tied or that no candidate leads by more than 5 points.
The light blue or light red states mean that, respectively, Obama or Romney lead by between 5 and 9.9 points.
The dark blue and dark red states mean that Obama or Romney lead by 10 or more points.
“Virginia gets put in the Strong Obama category…”
No it doesn’t.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president
Rasmussen’s numbers are so skewed nobody uses them. Their “likely voter” model lowballs Democrats severely. Most polls’ likely voter models are going to badly underestimate the African-American turnout in this election, just as they did in 2008.
Correction: Nobody but conservatives who love misinformation uses them.
Really, Geezer?!
In a double whammy of misinformation, PPP not only uses registered voters, but well over-estimates Democrat Party affliation in Virginia at 39% to the actual figure which is around 30%. This is more than enough bias to skew an unbelievable 12-point margin for Obama over Romney in Virginia. So please, tell the busy little map-maker to go back to the drawing board and try again.
Speaking of misinformation. Sheesh. Come back when you’ve taken a statistics class.
QP, suck on this – http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/post-poll-obama-leads-romney-as-campaigns-converge-on-virginia/2012/05/03/gIQAgH1hzT_story.html?hpid=z1