Given Mr. Obama’s current approval ratings and consensus forecasts on the economy, he rates as about a 60 percent favorite to win the popular vote against Mitt Romney, with somewhat higher chances against any of the other Republicans running for the nomination. By contrast, in the November version of the model, Mr. Obama was an underdog to Mr. Romney, with a 40 percent chance of winning; the president’s approval ratings were about 6 points lower then and economic forecasts were somewhat more pessimistic.
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY – PRESIDENT
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone): Santorum 34, Romney 25, Paul 11, Gingrich 5.
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 12, Paul 9
Said pollster Richard Czuba: “Right now Michigan is not Mitt Romney’s firewall. He’s fighting for his political life in this state.”
ARIZONA (American Research Group): Romney 38, Santorum 31, Gingrich 15, Paul 11
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Santorum 39, Romney 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
Key finding: “Perhaps more tellingly, Santorum now trounces Romney 55% to 34% in a one-on-one matchup among likely GOP primary voters. This is the first time any challenger has led Romney nationally in a head-to-head match-up.”
GENERAL ELECTION – PRESIDENT
MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-38), Obama d. Gingrich (56-34), Obama d. Santorum (50-39), Obama d. Paul (52-34).
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-44); Obama d. Santorum (47-41); Obama d. Paul (46-40); Obama d. Gingrich (50-38)
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (51-46), Obama d. Santorum (52-45), Obama d. Paul (52% to 45), Obama d. Gingrich (55-42)
BATTLEGROUND STATES [Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin] (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (47-39), Obama d. Santorum (48-38), Obama d. Paul (48-37), Obama d. Gingrich (52-32)