Sunday Open Thread [1.8.12]
A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina has Mitt Romney leading, but not as big of a lead as with other recent polls.
Romney leads with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%.
Now, keep in mind that South Carolina is the LAST chance for any of these horrible alternatives to Romney to pull off a win. If Romney wins South Carolina, the nomination is his. Remember, that no nominee in an open primary on the GOP side has ever captured the trifecta of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In 2000, Bush won Iowa and SC, but McCain won New Hampshire. In 2008, Huckabee won Iowa, and McCain won New Hampshire and SC. In 1996, Dole won Iowa and SC, while Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire. In 1988, Bush won New Hampshire and SC, while Dole won Iowa. In 1980, Bush won Iowa, and Reagan won NH and SC. In 1976, Reagan won SC, while Ford won Iowa and NH. And recall, that mostly Republican primaries are boring affairs where the lemmings fall in line quickly behind the establishment “next in line” candidate. It was never in doubt that Bush 41, Dole or Bush were going to be the nominees in the 88, 96 or 00 races. It was never in doubt that Reagan was going to the nominee in 80.
So if Romney wins SC, it is all over.
So this close poll result offers a ray of hope for those of us who either long for a bloody GOP primary or hate Romney:
“There are two things that taken together might make it possible for Santorum to upset Romney in South Carolina. The first is both Gingrich and Perry dropping out. Gingrich’s voters prefer Santorum over Romney 52-37 and Perry’s do by a 54-41 margin. Either of them dropping out would give Santorum a big boost. The other thing that would give Santorum the potential for an upset is a Jim DeMint endorsement. 31% of voters say his nod would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.”
So if the Non-Romneys can get their act together and sacrifice all but one of them for the cause, and then if Demint will stick to his tea party rhetoric, we might be saved from a coronation.
Ahh… but not so fast:
Just out from the Suffolk daily tracking poll …
For the fourth day in a row, Mitt Romney has fallen in overnight tracking, and Rick Santorum has dropped into fifth place among likely voters in the Jan. 10 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, according to the latest Suffolk University/7News two-day tracking poll.
Ron Paul is gaining on Romney, while Jon Huntsman has rallied into third place.
Romney dropped 4 percentage points overnight to 35 percent. The former Massachusetts governor still holds a 15 point lead, but his margin has declined by 8 percentage points since last Tuesday, when 43 percent of likely Republican voters backed Romney.
If he can win all three, he can wrap up front-runnerhood (the media narrative), but he won’t have wrapped up enough (I think) delegates to own it. The GOP has proportional allocation of delegates this round — so if a couple of the not-Romneys can stick around to get a decent 2nd place for awhile, the delgate contest could be harder for Romney.
This story is all kinds of awesome:
Occupy Geriatrics: Seniors in Walkers Shut Down Local Bank of America
True enough, Cassandra. Romeny won’t have wrapped up the nomination delegate-wise. But the money will dry up for the other candidates. The Establishment and endorsements would all go to Romney, more so than they already have. There would be tremendous pressure on the other candidates to drop out, if they could continue in their campaigns, and the media would start to ignore them anyway.
You are right that money will dictate when some of these guys drop out. Ron Paul’s supporters always think he is always #Winning, and he gets where he needs to on the wings of his volunteers. As for he rest, the money game just becomes a proxy for the Evangelicals vs. the Tejadis vs. the Establishment GOP elites. Any of which could keep a candidate alive for a decent number of respectable 2nd place wins. The question is will they.
Commence Popcorn hoarding.
Don’t you wish that we could be watching a Democratic primary debate?
Anyway, with this crew, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a brokered Republican convention if nobody gets a majority of delegates and a collation develops around committing delegates to a not-Romney alternative.
Anybody see how Romney could beat Obama in the general? I don’t.
Insightful column by Delaware’s Joe DiStefano on the Philadelphia Catholic school closures:
http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/136890293.html
Ever heard of Foster Friess? He is the billionaire mutual funds manager, born again who funded and bought the vote for Rick Sanitorium in Iowa. Friess was lauded by the Koch bro. at their “secret” 2011 meetup as a heavy funder for Koch friendly causes. A flashlight into the cockroach infested super Pac flushed him out and into the sunlight.
We should be watching a democratic primary, cuz Obama has no challenger. That was done by the DNCC to make sure he wasnt challenged by any democrat. But thats ok, the demorats are going to get their challenge too. Rocky Anderson is running for President on the Justice Party ticket. This morning Ralph Nader was on Cspan and talked about Rocky and how progressives should support him for no other to reason but to challenge Obama on his wars of choice (Iran coming up) NDAA and other challenges to our consitution.
“Occupy Geriatrics: Seniors in Walkers Shut Down Local Bank of America”
Best line:
What, no pepper spray?
Manifold,
Excellent article. Very sad days for the RC Church, with no one to blame but the hierarchy, Roman and American.
I’ve read a little lately about Santorum’s family life. Am I correct that he has sent his kids primarily to public schools? Why hasn’t this Defender of the Faith put his kids in Catholic schools? Does he think parochial schools are filled with liberals, too?
There will be no brokered convention*. That hasn’t happened for decades. Granted, it’s the fervent wish of the media and politics-watchers, but it just won’t happen. That would mean the nominee wouldn’t be decided until the summer, giving him only a few months to get the national campaign running at full speed – and Obama several months in the spring and early summer to be the only one out there.
* – The only exception to this would be if Paul holds the cards. If he’s the kingmaker, it very well could be a brokered convention if that’s what it takes to get the nominee to adopt his principles.
The Color of Change has helped to get Pat Buchanan on indefinite suspension from MSNBC.
Don’t know about his kids, but here’s some background on Santorum:
http://oursilverribbon.org/blog/?p=188
TEBOW!!!!! ’nuff said.
http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20120109/NEWS/120109010/Pardons-board-weighs-killer-s-commutation-request-today?odyssey=tab
The Board of Pardons will decide whether or not to grant clemency to Robert Gattis today. I find it shameful that our state still employs the death penalty.
Let’s hope the members of the Board of Pardons (Matt Denn, Jeff Bullock, Leo Strine Jr., Chip Flowers, and Tom Wagner) do the right thing.
Dont count on any of them to do the right thing.
Four days later, the Times answers bookkeeper’s son’s question:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/us/the-heights-a-catholic-school-draws-beltway-conservatives.html