Wednesday Open Thread [11.30.11]

A new Insider Advantage poll in Florida shows Newt Gingrich way ahead with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 13%, Rick Perry at 7%, Ron Paul at 4%, Michele Bachmann at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Gingrich is the primary beneficiary of Cain’s possible withdrawal, according to the PPP:

Our last national survey found that Gingrich’s favorability with Cain voters was 73/21. Meanwhile Romney’s was 33/55. That’s the same basic trend we’ve seen in every Republican primary poll we’ve done in the month of November. On average in 7 polls we’ve done this month Gingrich’s favorability with Cain voters is 69/22. Romney’s average is 31/57. In other words Gingrich’s net favorability is 73 points better with Cain supporters than Romney’s.

[…] On average across six polls we’ve asked a second choice question on this month 37% of Cain voters pick Gingrich to only 13% for Romney. In fact Romney isn’t any more likely to be the second choice of Cain supporters than Michele Bachmann (14%) or Rick Perry (12%).

A new Pew Research poll finds that since the 2010 midterm elections, the Tea Party “has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus.”

“More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party.”

“Throughout the 2010 election cycle, agreement with the Tea Party far outweighed disagreement in the 60 House districts represented by members of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus. But as is the case nationwide, support has decreased significantly over the past year; now about as many people living in Tea Party districts disagree (23%) as agree (25%) with the Tea Party.”

Tom Jensen on Romney:

“You want to know the biggest reason Mitt Romney hasn’t surged at any point in the Republican Presidential race this year? It’s because the more GOP primary voters across the country have been exposed to him, the less they’ve liked him. There are 13 places PPP has polled the Republican race in October or November where it also did a poll sometime between January and March. In those places Romney’s net favorability has dropped by an average of 15 points over the course of the year.”