Tuesday Open Thread [11.29.11]
These crazy Republicans are really going to do it. They are going to nominate Newton Leroy Gingrich. I love it.
Insider Advantage has three new polls out in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire. In South Carolina, Newt Gingrich is destroying the field with 38%, followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Michele Bachmann at 3% and Rick Santorum at 2%.
In New Hampshire, Mitt Romney just ahead of Newt Gingrich in the first presidential primary state, 31% to 27%. Newt has closed the gap.
In Iowa shows Newt Gingrich leading with 28%, followed by Ron Paul at 13%, Mitt Romney at 12%, Herman Cain at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 10% and Rick Perry at 7%.
I’m keeping my excitement in check by remembering that Gore wanted to face off against the unelectable idiot from Texas.
Lordy, Republicans hate Romney. Alas, I do understand. I get they were looking to rally around someone other than Mitt, but… but… but… Newt? OMG, are they flippin’ nuts?
There’s no one else to rally around. I find it significant that if you combine the polling for the four “not Mitt” candidates, it’s consistently in the low 50s, while Mitt is consistently in the low-mid 20s. The anti-Mitt group already has shown itself willing to coalesce behind any of the four other candidates. Given that, I don’t see how Mitt can possibly win.
Is the Republican Establishment going to rise up in all its grim majesty and smite Newt as they did all the others? Or are they just going to throw up a little in their mouths and move ahead with Newt?
I guess the music stopped, and Newt got the only chair left.
I’m not sure the music has stopped yet.
Rick Santorum hasn’t yet had his day in the sun. The music plays on.
If you believe the pundits, the Republican strategy is to target whites with little or no college education. This can be a winning voter block and Gingrich is the ideal candidate for this crowd. This is NOT a dumb move on their part. Especially with Rove and the Koch Brothers flooding the airwaves with propaganda targeting these voters. Newt will be formidable.
GOP Set to Self Destruct
Man do I ever hope this is true.
This cannot be said enough…
“He’s (Newt) a stupid man’s idea of what a smart person sounds like”
“Newt will be formidable.”
You presume that this unstable force will suddenly learn discipline in the midst of the most intense scrutiny of his life — way more than he ever got in Congress, and from a far less respectful media corps.
An actual smarty-pants who lacks the common touch is not the way to beat a guy misperceived as a smarty-pants who lacks the common touch. Obama is going to look like the ’68 Bobby Kennedy next to ol’ Balloon Head.
Looks like Cain is about to exit the race. Looks like all those Democratic racists supporting Obama got to Cain. I wonder who will inherit his numbers.
Eliot Spitzer and OWS. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/69084.html
Yeah Geezer,
But, you presume that the voters will learn discipline and vote based on facts. There won’t be many facts floating around in the propaganda storm that will be the 2012 GOP presidential campaign. Whoever they run is going to run ugly. But Newt has roots in the white voters psyche. Besides that, Americans like Southern presidents.
Voters never vote based on fact. They vote based on impressions. Unfortunately for Republicans, the people who hate Obama just hate Obama. That group isn’t a majority and will never be a majority. Facts be damned. Stand Obama up next to Gingrich and it’s a clear choice between the past and future. The future wins every time.
Naturally that could change if Obama steps in a big pile of it in the next year, but I’ll stick by my analysis: You can’t beat an aloof smarty-pants with a more aloof, bigger smarty-pants.
“That group isn’t a majority and will never be a majority. ”
Elections aren’t decided by majorities. They are decided by small segments who push an otherwise losing candidate to 51%. Campaign strategists know this. Thus the pandering.
Which pandering?
My point is that a segment is voting for Obama no matter who the GOP nominates, and another segment — a smaller one — will vote for his opponent no matter what. People who don’t hate Obama now aren’t going to start hating him just in time for the election.
All the campaign ads in the world aren’t going to make Newt Gingrich a more likable person than Barack Obama. That’s why Romney is the only GOPer they’re afraid of.
“People who don’t hate Obama now aren’t going to start hating him just in time for the election.”
Oh yes they will. Watch the GOP ratchet up the Obama-hate. The Obama haters are one of the few segments that still offer some opportunities for growth. They are not very smart and are extremely susceptible to incessant propaganda.
Remember this RNC strategy memo?
It worked, as Republicans now control the House.
Good God, I didn’t realize there was a liberal pants-wetting brigade.
How can Obama hatred be ratcheted up in a way that will convince the undecided to suddenly start hating him? There’s nothing left to accuse him of. And once you’re in an election, it’s not a matter of simply hating Obama. We’re talking about people who will have to be convinced Obama is more loathsome than Gingrich (or Romney). I realize that, against all odds, Newt Gingrich has convinced three women to sleep with him, but that’s the only evidence I’ve ever seen that anyone actually likes the guy.
The strategy you cite worked in an off-year election, with fewer than 50% of the people voting. Different dynamic entirely.
I would not rule out the possibility that Newt used roofies.
“There’s nothing left to accuse him of.”
That’s what Herman Cain said.
Good one. But seriously, how can someone who has resisted hating him for being a Kenyan Marxist socialist America-hater find something else? Now if he hurts the dog, all bets are off — LBJ never recovered from being photographed lifting his beagles by the ears.
because the voting public are morons who listen to whatever lies they are told.
I remember one time way back in 2007, i was talking to a friend about this guy, Obama. it was at a time (one of the many) when there were accusations of Mulsimism….. THE HORROR. Her response to me when i said “he’s clearly a christian, this is just a lie” (not that it should matter at all) was “maybe, but you cant be too careful”
Fear not. Faux will come up with something that people will believe.
Look what they did to John Kerry. Swiftboating, anti gay marriage amendment in Ohio. Cranking up the hate.
@Dana – “Looks like Cain is about to exit the race. Looks like all those Democratic racists supporting Obama got to Cain. I wonder who will inherit his numbers”
why the pro-adultry, female groping GOPers of course!
In addition to the RNC, and Fox News this year we’ll have super PACS with endless amounts of untraceable cash to pour into spreading “uncoordinated” lies and misinformation.
It is going to be nasty.
jason, that is exactly why Willard will be the nominee and it wont matter worth a damn what the chucklehead conservatives have to say about it. their masters will tell them what to think and what to get mad a bout and how to vote…. same as always.
85% of Republican primary voters seem to really, really, really, really hate Mitt. I see it being Newt at this point.
the republican primary voters dont pick the nominee. the primaries are just suggestions to the RNC. there is no legal obligation to nominate the winner of the primaries. Why else do we know who it will be after the 3rd primary? the Clinton/Obama fight was long and annoying but at least all the states got to have a say…. NOT something the Repukes believe in.
If the Republican nominee is anyone other than Romney, i will let jason buzz my head at the following DL public function. pinkyswear.
they may hate romney, but they hate obama even more…. and if Romney shows he can be a good puppet and do whatever he is told, they will hire him.
Don’t drag me into your kinky sex practices. What ever happened to the gentlemanly $1.00 bet a la Trading Places?
I got a Washington that sez its going to be Newt.
dont flatter yourself. but sure. I’ll bet a dollar that the RNC will flip off it’s own voters.
“85% of Republican primary voters seem to really, really, really, really hate Mitt.”
Be fair. It’s only 75%, and some of those only really, really hate him.