It Won’t Be Romney.
A new Gallup poll finds Mitt Romney barely leading Herman Cain for the GOP presidential nomination, 20% to 18%, with Rick Perry at 15%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. The Republicans usually don’t have an actually competitive primary race. Usually, at this point in the election calendar, the national polls show the eventual nominee leading the race by 20 or more points. George W. Bush led the field in 1999 with 60%. Bob Dole was leading in 1995 with 46%. Poppy Bush in 1987 was leading with 41%. Saint Ronaldus Maximus was leading in 1979 with 41%, and Nixon led the field in 1967 and 1959 by wide margins. The exceptions are 1976, when there was a close race for the nomination between Ronald Reagan and President Ford, and the last two election cycles of 2008 and 2012. At this point in 2007, McCain had just 16%, but the GOP base eventually settled on him on Super Tuesday.
After having run in 2008, and basically tying for second with Huckabee behind McCain, Romney should be doing what his other “next in lines” previously: leading the field. But he is not. That’s why I am pretty convinced he won’t be the nominee. Especially after ads like this:
With an ad like this, and more polish on debate skills and substance, Perry can beat Romney easily. But for his horrible three debate performances, Perry would been leading Romney right now by double digits. Doubtful teabaggers who were for Perry once, or for Palin, are now temporarily parked in Herman Cain’s camp. But they will bolt to Perry if he dazzles tonight and during the rest of the campaign.
Romney: Romneycare
Obama: Obamacare
Perry: Doesn’t care
It’s such a weird race. Romney both can’t win and can’t lose. I have a hard time thinking that the Cain surge can last – even Cain isn’t taking it seriously (he’s been doing a book tour.) Ubeki-beki-stan-stan – the guy’s not even trying. I still think it’s down to Perry v Romney, tomorro’s debate should be interesting.
It is going to be Perry. You heard it here first.
Yeah, but what’s Perry’s stance on the presidency of Uzbeki-beki-stan-stan?
LOL at the commercial “there’s a lot of reasons not to elect me.”
Am I the only one who thinks that Romney would actually be the GOP’s weakest candidate, polling not withstanding. He’s the poster boy for the 1%.
My conservative friend I talked about last week is convinced Romney would lose to Obama in a landslide.
The thing about Romney is that the conventional wisdom considers him to be a mainstream business Republican, which means the corporate media will find him acceptable for the Presidency. Thus, he would be treated kindly, and would get good coverage, which makes him a threat to beat Obama as he could garner up the fickle swing voter who don’t pay attention to politics.
But, he is the Republican John Kerry. A boring flip flopper to the nth degree. And the GOP base hates him.
Perry is not going to be a push over. American voters put a premium on “authentic” and Perry has faking that down cold.
That said, Perry brings George W. Bush back into the election. I would think that the R’s would want to avoid that, but the heart (of the GOP’s primary voters) wants what the heart wants.
I agree that Romney = Kerry. This seems a bit unfair because Kerry is so much more accomplished politically than Romney but Romney will be dogged by his past flip-flops. Also Romney is like Kerry in that he’s uncharismatic.
Perry is distiller essence of George W. Bush.
Romney polls at nearly 100% name recognition and still can’t get over that 20% threashold of support. Republican primary voters know him and they don’t like him. Time for the Republicans to find yet another man on a white horse (heck, they’d take a pony right about now).
Eh, all the candidates suck. No matter what, national sales tax, here we come! (or VAT) How else are we going to get money out of the retiring baby boomers.
This country is screwed. I bet Obama and Bush got together and chest bumped after al-awlaki.
Delaware Dem, Unstable Isotope. Do you guys keep records of what you say. Have you guys every been right about anything, at anytime, anywhere?