Obama’s 2012 Opponent – Paul Ryan
I loved Obama’s speech yesterday. It was a full-throated defense of the progressive vision of government and successfully tied Republicans to a pessimistic view of America. I know they’re all stewing angrily right now.
In the current Republican mood, however, precautions are for girlie-men. Republicans have succumbed to a strange mood of simultaneous euphoria and paranoia. Republicans have convinced themselves both that: (1) American freedom stands in imminent danger of disappearing into totalitarian night; and (2) that the vast majority of the great and good American people are yearning for a mighty rollback of big government, even at considerable personal sacrifice.
And so Republicans have united around Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) proposal that for the first time in modern conservative history explicitly joins a big tax cut for the rich to big cuts in health care spending for virtually everybody else. If this were a tennis game, the Republicans would be placing the ball in exactly the spot on the court where it must never, ever go.
Exactly. Not only did Ryan’s plan end Medicare (that’s unpopular enough) but it ended Medicare to pay for more tax cuts for the rich. You can’t get any clearer than the Ryan budget that Republicans serve the rich at expense of everyone else. We haven’t even started talking yet about how Ryan’s plan actually increasesthe deficit.
It will be interesting to watch what happens to the Ryan budget in Congress. They may vote on it as soon as today. Will Republicans embrace the Ryan plan or will they run away from it?
I have been surprised to hear the media start to give Obama’s speech fair coverage, and to begin reporting on Republican disarray. I didn’t see that coming. I knew those forces of disarray existed in the GOP, but I figured they would continue to be patched up by the media and by Obama himself.
I am starting to conceive that maybe there is a master plan by Obama to give Republicans enough rope to hang themselves. Or maybe Obama had nothing to do with it, and Republicans are simply threatened by their own hubris.
It is an uncomfortably high stakes game to actually entertain the Ryan plan and Simpson Bowles. I would expect a Democratic president and Senate leader to pronounce both Dead On Arrival, instead of playing footsie with it. If it passes the House it could damn well pass the conservative Senate. And if Obama is invested in the compromise, he will sign it and declare victory.
It would be to Obama’s great credit if he has suddenly realized just how far out on the limb the GOP has gone, and begins sawing the limb.
Saw faster Mr. President, and saw a bit closer to the tree.
“keep the gumment off my Medicare!!!”
Just remember that there is a large part of this country… mostly Fox viewers who will be convinced by their puppet masters that this is the noble and patriotic thing to do… most of them will be old people. And just like in 2010 when they were tricked into giving the house back to the thuglicans, they WILL be tricked again. Because they are stupid.
“I am starting to conceive that maybe there is a master plan by Obama to give Republicans enough rope to hang themselves”
hah…. ok, this is a little dark, but that comment got me thinking “exactly how much rope does he think they need?” Then i thought about the opening scene to Pirates of the Caribbean 3. I hope you’re right, anon. That all the concessions, all the contradictions to Candidate Obama we all just a big ploy to ensure a second term and the end of the republican party.
Just watch. Republicans will be on the air attacking Obama for blocking Medicare reform and preventing Republicans from saving Medicare for seniors.
Only coordinated Democratic messaging from the lowest (us) to the highest (Obama) can turn the message around to change the narrative to “Republicans want to end Medicare as we know it.” Which encouragingly, is a phrase I have heard multiple times in the last 24 hours.
That all the concessions, all the contradictions to Candidate Obama we all just a big ploy
Another possibility is that he is actually listening to the netroots criticism and realized he’d better stop digging on the enthusiasm gap.
I also got it in my head that the “obama care will kill grandma” BS was just to neutralize that attack so when the GOP actually proposed a measure that would let old people die, (which is exactly what they have done) the Dems wouldn’t be able to use it.
Remember, it doesn’t matter if it’s true in america… it only matters if it sounds new and convincing.
Politics isn’t about what is actually happening. It is about what is perceived to be happening. If we knew what were true, then we wouldn’t have to vote on it. The fact that we don’t (can’t) know is what allows us to vote on issues. If we know what needs to be done, then why would we have to vote on it? True understanding is what absolutist governments are built upon.
Despite your perceptions, we don’t vote on issues, we vote for individuals. Voting on issues happens in a direct democracy, which we don’t have.
I thought it was HILARIOUS Ryan was “sittin’ in the front row”, as Ueker [?sp] would say, when his ideas got BITCH-SLAPPED by the Prez.
THAT is NOT done in CIVILIZED discourse!
The BLUNT-SKULLS are OUTRAGED!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….to infinity…and BEYOND!!!!
One of the NPR reporters this AM noted that the Republicans were in enough disarray these days to be considered Democrats. She was amazed at the breakdown of their discipline. And if NPR will report that the GOP is having issues, then you know that it is likely deeper than that.
I really liked this speech too. And I liked how he wouldn’t be goaded into going first. In a news conference bask in February someone asked shim about why he wasn’t putting out a plan for deficit reduction and Obama told the reporter (paraphrase) that his own plan wouldn’t matter much since it would just become something people would be against. So Ryan goes first and the opposition is in reverse. Here’s hoping they can maintain the tide. But I’m not holding my breath on that.
“Here’s hoping they can maintain the tide. But I’m not holding my breath on that.”
Amen to that.
And I should say the reasons why I’m not holding my breath — the President doesn’t have alot of good surrogates to roll out to amplify that message from yesterday. He also won’t be getting much in terms of political cover/support from his own team, either.
I find myself admiring the president’s political skills here. He baited Republicans into presenting their plan – and boy did they deliver. The Republican coalition seems to be publicly coming apart too. It’s now obvious that Boehner got rolled. I’m amazed at all the people that keep underestimating the president.
Amen to all of that.
For me, Obama set up his make or break…. the final one.
There are already quite a few things that i voted for him based on that either havent happened yet, or in the case of the bush tax cuts, totally flopped.
I understand why he caved in, i do. I really really do. The GOP held the middle class hostage to get more money for the rich…. like they always do.
THE UNITED STATES DOES NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS!
I voted for him because i KNEW he would try and make deals an negotiate, and after the Bush years where Conservative cause after conservative caused was jammed down our throats, i didnt want “our turn” i wanted that ideological bullshit to end. I wanted consensus and compromise, because i thought both sides really did have good ideas and intentions and you just had to work at it.
I was wrong. Obama was wrong. My hope is that he has finally finally realized that. The GOP only cares about power and money and will cause untold millions to suffer to get it. Their ideas dont deserve to be heard or considered. Unfortunately, they were able to take a GIANT shit in the cornflakes and now we have been set-back. If Obama stands his ground here, lets the GOP shut down the government the next time they try, or lets taxes on everyone go up, he will win. He will win the debate, re-election, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, will win back my full support and favor.
Im with Obama now, where i was with Brad Lidge mid 2009…. i was still fiercely loyal because of the mind blowing awesomeness of 2008… but i was distressed and baffled at what was happening. I WANTED things to go back to the way they were and unleashed hell on people who talked of a trade… but it was in the back of my mind. Let’s hope obama’s rotator cuff stay healthy.
Amen to all of that. (How can I not keep coming back to this place when it is an island of common sense, sanity and decency in a world run amok? )
the President doesn’t have alot of good surrogates to roll out to amplify that message from yesterday. He also won’t be getting much in terms of political cover/support from his own team, either.
If Obama wants to lead us back from the Paul Ryan cliff, I’ll take it. But I won’t forget Obama was the one who led us so close to the edge in the first place. He’s like the arsonist who starts a fire so he can be a hero dragging people out of the house.
Obama has spent two years redefining the Democratic brand as Blue Dog. In hindsight this may have been a catastropic mistake.
Why would he expect Congressional Democrats to turn around and follow him to the left now?
I did like the veto threat in the speech. It is about time. Obama’s balls grew three sizes that day.
There is the perfect counter example to the people who just shrug and say “What can Obama do?”
The only way to ruin it is to work out some mushy compromise and declare it good.
He baited Republicans into presenting their plan
I like that too. He waited until all of them walked far out onto the limb to join kooks who were already out there.
I just can’t decide if this impression of a grand trap is real, or simply an illusion caused by my endless hope and wishful thinking. My dreams of eleven dimensional chess have been shattered many times before.
After all, the Repubs did manage to get out of the tax cut expiration trap, which looked like a can’t-miss.
In a budget impasse, it is perfectly possible for Obama to capitulate in the interest of “getting something done.” He has a track record now.
Say, won’t something like UI extensions be coming up soon? Perfect hostages for Obama to sign the Ryan plan.
Sadly, the debt ceiling issue is coming up. There will be great hemming and hawing in the next few weeks. Hopefully Obama will stand firm and be prepared to blame the resulting recession on stupid Congressional Republicans.
So far every time Obama sees Republicans caught in a trap, he gnaws off his own leg.
Some people still think this emperor is wearing clothes even when he doing a full monty six inches from their nose.
I am glad that the problem of high unemployment is solved so we can focus on the deficit. The President’s political skill at letting the Republicans set the nation’s agenda so that he can abandon his lie about focusing on jobs is indeed admirable. Unemployment was 7.6% when he took office and it is now 9.2% with 412,000(!) more joining last month.
Happy days are here again.
Bonus question: How many Presidents have been re-elected when the unemployment rate is over 7%?
I don’t disagree with Obama’s speech. It is exactly what a Democrat should be saying. But I have trust issues with Obama now. Obama’s style is to let us wear ourselves out, let Congress wear itself out, then none of it matters as he comes out of the negotiating room with a deal that pushes Democrats even further right.
We’ve been over this a million times, A1. The only thing he could have done about jobs was done. The only other thing he could have done was go to the wall on higher taxes for the rich, and that moment has passed.
Bonus question: How many incumbent presidents who lost elections during times of high unemployement lost to a further-left candidate from his own party?
“Unemployment was 7.6% when he took office and it is now 9.2% with 412,000(!) more joining last month.”
taking talking points from Hannity now are ya?
Of course, Geezer. The problem of high unemployment is solved. Nothing more he can do. No sense in arguing that building employment is the only sustainable way to grow tax revenues. And, besides, campaigning on deficit reduction by spending cuts is going to be teh awesome!
We just gotta take our 9.2% unemployment rate and be happy that at least the bankers are getting their record bonuses.
Nothing more he can do.
Happy days are here again.
so are the lefTeabags
Yes, Ben, Hannity makes those numbers up and tells the Government, which then publishes them as facts. You didn’t know this?
Im not saying they are made up, Im saying using that as an attack is as pointless and stupid as saying “when Obama took office, there were no major oil spills in the gulf… now there has been one”
Contrary to your delusional views of the president having dictatorial powers, he cant force businesses to hire. If PRIVATE companies are sitting on piles of money and not hiring anyone the POTUS alone cant do much. Do i wish he would come out against that more? of course. But it would have never changed Mitch McConnel’s mind….
(he is the senate minority leader, and since you dont seem to grasp this, he has the power, and has used it to stop all legislation.)
See, it’s one thing to be critical of Obama from a progressive standpoint. It is quite another to do what you do and ignore reality so you can make your petulant quips and jokes about people who are actually suffering. You dont do the cause any good. You’re worse than the conservative teabaggers because you throw rocks at the window from the inside.
We get it. You want a totalitarian socialist dictator in the white house. That’s great. If i didnt have basic knowledge of human nature, I would too.
Shorter Ben: Don’t talk about unemployment or mention actual percentages because…well, something about throwing rocks.
If you sing a chorus of “Happy Days Are Here Again,” it will make you feel better.
A1: What you want him to do doesn’t matter. He’s not going to do it. And it wouldn’t matter anyway, because there is very little a president can actually do to influence the unemployment rate beyond spend government money, which with a GOP House is now clearly off the table. I understand your laments, I don’t care if you keep crying from now to the election, but if your point is that nobody else’s viewpoint is valid because they’re less pure than you, well, fuck off, sport, which is the same thing I’ll tell anyone who insists on telling me what to think. Your viewpoint is no more valid or valuable than anybody else’s, mine included, and it’s less valid or valuable than those of people who allow me to reach my own conclusions without criticizing me for them.
Since a1 started commenting again, no one has given me $100 for no reason.
A1 2011 = Lord ZOltar 3045
Get a grip, Geezer. You’re the one talking about “purity,” not me. I ain’t telling you what to think; I am expressing my opinion like you and everyone else here does.
Apparently you’re not one of “those of people who allow me to reach my own conclusions without criticizing me for them.”
Look in the mirror, Sport.
The Paul Ryan budget plan is a godsend for 2012, not just for Obama but potentially for all Democrats running for Congress. It’s too nutty for mainstream America. Let’s hope that the Democrats do the necessary education of the public about it’s awful consequences in the months ahead. Otherwise, it will be all for naught.
Great point Dana. The Republicans have provided the tools, Democrats just have to be smart enough to use them.
I guess it is a “godsend” if you think that running on a “we’re not as bad as republicans” platform is a good strategy.
The republicans have learned that if they shift their goal post, the democrats just shift theirs in the republican direction. Now the democrats think that they have scored a touchdown when they cross the 50 yard line. Hence, 9.2% unemployment is now acceptable and not worthy of addressing.
Which Obama is going to run in 2012…
“The president gave the sort of scare speech he not long ago warned against, and blasted the income-tax rates he not long ago agreed were necessary — in a context in which he has just presented a budget with a $1.6 trillion deficit of the sort he now says is unsustainable, and has warned about recklessly voting against raising the debt ceiling in a fashion that he himself had once done, in a larger landscape in which he had once damned attacking Middle East countries in optional wars, Guantanamo, renditions, tribunals, preventative detention, intercepts, wiretaps, Predators, and leaving troops in Iraq, and then embraced or expanded all that and more (this list is infinite and includes everything from drilling to campaign financing to earmarks).” VDH
“We’re not as bad as republicans” is about the only thing that the Democrats have going for them. Still, many point to it with great pride, even when they know that it is only marginally true. Thus a presidential speech on deficit reduction during a crisis of 9.2% unemployment becomes a “full-throated defense of the progressive vision of government.”
I keep asking this question, but have yet to get an answer. What is your endgame?
I get that you don’t like Obama/Dems, but, seriously, what’s the plan?
A1, did you really think that you were going to get much more than “we’re not as bad as the other guys” from a President who ran as a moderate and has fairly much governed as one? Regardless, the other guys are not merely bad, they are potentially destructive to the social fabric of the USA. If the nuts like Ryan prevail as a result of the elections in 2012, significantly more people will be hurting than do now.
but at least a1 will get to see obama defeated…. and that is all that matters.
Dana and jason
From a process perspective I don’t think you are right about the Ryan budget being an effective Democratic tool, because nobody (by which I mean bazillions of voters) will read it any more than anybody else (another bazillion voters) will actually read the proposed Obama budget.
Both will become talking points (mostly devoid of actual facts) to the respective bases, which both sides need to shore up: Obama because his most far left base is disenchanted with him, and the GOP because they don’t have a candidate yet. (Which, in about another two months will start playing heavily into Obama’s hands, although one should not forget that Clinton came out of an equally undistinguished pack of Dems in 1992.)
My point, and I had one when I started typing, is that both sides are currently being singularly inept at courting the independents right now. Which is still in the incumbent’s favor.
Were I Obama’s campaign manager (and he should be glad I’m not), my mantra would be, “Winning ugly is still winning.”
Dana,
I supported him in the primary and in the general, both with my vote and my dollars, only to learn he is a consummate liar who pays lip-service to the poor and middle class and many progressive issues that are critical to the general welfare. Yes, he ran as a moderate to me, but he has delivered mostly the same results we got from George W. Bush.
So, yes, I really expected more, just like many many of his formally strong supporters. For example, just read the scathing remarks that Cornel West made last week calling him “another black mascot” of “Wall Street oligarchs”:
http://thewageslave.com/?p=1955
Obviously, he is marginally better than Ryan or any other of the repubs, but is that really the only progressive argument in favor of him?
Finally, Dana, this President has done very little to restore “the social fabric of the USA” from the serious and perhaps irreparable damage done by George W. Bush. In many ways, by instituting the exact same policies, he has now made them “bipartisan” and that has only made them worse and much harder to change in the future.
I plan on asking this question again and again and again: What is your endgame?
Here’s something Democrats should have done a long time ago: The Progressive Caucus has proposed its own budget, parts of which are too far left even for me.
FINALLY we can have an honest conversation about where the center is, who’s a centrist and who’s a progressive.
If the Teabaggers can stake out extremist territory to redefine the center, so can we, and drag the center back.
The Progressive budget does have some good stuff in it. Everything’s on the table, right? I heard the President say so.
Steve, I don’t think the populace needs to read the Ryan budget plan for it to be effective for the Dems. All they need do is educate the public about it by characterizing it fairly: as murdering Medicare, as a job killing measure, as adding to the deficit and debt, as a cyncical giveaway to the rich. I’ll concede that the Dems are not often good at educating the public, but if they did do it repeatedly for months and months, I believe the public would reject Ryan’s kooky ideas and the Repubs along with them.
The thing is, in 2009 the public already HAD rejected Ryan’s kooky ideas, until Obama breathed life into the GOP by repeatedly dignifying their policies with compromise.
The GOP was flat on its back; we were talking about the end of the GOP and a rump party in the South.
Then Obama reached out to the GOP, like the teenagers in a horror movie who dug up the serial killer’s grave to see if he was still dead. You know how that movie ends.
Also, anon, the press played a role in their revival by falling in love with the Tea Party.
Responding to Dana and Steve: I think people are going to be very interested in both budgets. Just mentioning Medicare grabs every seniors’ attention – always has.
There is also going to be A Lot of interest in those under 55 (especially those 40 and up and that’s a big voting bloc). As someone who has shopped, and lived with, individual health insurance I am riveted.
My endgame, pandora, is to keep doing what I can as a citizen to promote progressive policies, including letter writing, funding progressive organizations and candidates, and GOTV. What I won’t do is blindly support a bad corporatist president merely because he is a Democrat.
I’d love to see a successful primary by someone like Russ Feingold. Yes, I know, but nobody thought Obama would win, either.
http://www.progressivesunited.org/home/
Dana
I’m just suggesting that I am a lot more pessimistic than you about the public (and here I specifically mean independents) doing any sort of rational comparison when faced by two different groups of talking heads:
“This is murdering Medicare.”
“This is saving Medicare.”
I recall that the Brookings Institute did a study on the proposed budgets of McCain and Obama during the 2008 election that noted the specific structural problems and unwarranted assumptions in both … and that absolutely nobody actually paid attention to them.
I think what you are suggesting will work with the Democratic base (and the Ryan plan will play to the GOP based), but will not matter a damn as substantive policy to the independents who are going to decide this election. I think what matters to them is the economic news in the last four months leading up to the election, with still a 52-48 edge toward Obama if all other things remain equal.