Those Fickle Independent Voters
The honeymoon with Congressional Republicans is definitely over:
43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.
46% of voters say that if there was an election for Congress today they would vote Democratic, compared to only 41% who would vote Republican. That five point advantage for Democrats is only a hair below the margin Republicans won by in the national popular vote last year. A victory of that magnitude for the Democrats next year would at the very least result in the party taking back a large number of the seats it lost last year, and it could be enough to take back the outright majority- hard to say at this point without knowing how good a number the GOP can do in redistricting.
The key to this strong movement back toward the Democrats right now is the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year- fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power. Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it’s not much of a surprise that independents now say they’d vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.
What do you think is responsible for the huge swing? The social conservative agenda of Republicans? The hostage-taking? Something else? November 2012 is still a long way away but it’s obvious that Republicans are not connecting with voters right now. Will they listen? (Haha I crack myself up.)
Tags: John Boehner, Republicans
Carpetbagger Carper along with Leiberman and Feinstein say they will vote for the social security cuts. Carper said, “his boys are in their twenties arent concerned about social security”? Is Carper voting on behalf of what his family thinks, throwing the rest of us under the bus. This man has to be challenged…he is a republicrat from the word go.
Shorter anon: “Carper sucks.” I agree.
Caution: this is a national poll. But Congressional elections will be fought district by district, and presidential elections will be fought state by state. Republicans will lure us into the 50% +1 strategy and kick our butts in many places. They are simply better at it than us and better financed.
Unlike Democrats, they will bring their majorities in the US House and state legislatures into the battle, offering up wedge issues to increase turnout in key states (re: Ohio 2004). Voter caging lists are probably already being drawn up.