Handicapping the 2012 Presidential Race

Though cautious, Nate Silver at 538 looks at President Obama’s re-election chances. Silver compares previous Congressional losses, Clinton/Reagan popularity and a head-to-head clash with Palin, but the money quote is when Silver scrutinizes the future effects of the 112th Congress on Obama’s chances:

Ultimately, however, Mr. Obama is more popular than the Republican Congress — an advantage that Bill Clinton did not have after 1994, nor Ronald Reagan after 1982. With the equally unpopular Democratic Congress largely being marginalized, that may work to his advantage.

It’s a long, long way till Nov. 6, 2012, but the horses are on the track.