PPP Shows O’Donnell Lead

Filed in National by on September 12, 2010

PPP says the DE-Sen race is too close to call but shows a lead for O’Donnell:

It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.

Say hello to Senator Coons.

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Comments (86)

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  1. Delaware Dem says:

    HOLY. FUCKING. SHIT. God is a Democrat after all.

  2. jason330 says:

    Good lord. Are there really that many brain dead Republicans amongst us?

  3. jason330 says:

    Michele Rollins……………………. 38%

    Glen Urquhart……………………… 50%

    Say goodnight Michele.

  4. fedora says:

    I love it! You can’t write theater like this!!

  5. jason330 says:

    Hold it. “PPP surveyed 668 likely Republican primary voters on September 11 and 12th. ” It seems like they WAY over sampled conservatives.

    Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
    moderate, or conservative?

    Liberal…….3%
    Moderate……………………. 33%
    Conservative………………. 64%

  6. jason330 says:

    But, just to be safe, someone check on Celia Cohen.

  7. anon says:

    Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
    moderate, or conservative?

    These people (Republicans) have no idea what those words mean.

  8. jason330 says:

    This is the Republican Party you built Mike. Nice leadership dumbass.

  9. With numbers like Castle’s got, would further revelations about O’Donnell change things? Castle’s popularity has just collapsed.

  10. jason330 says:

    Castle’s strategy has been to not piss anyone off. People hate that.

  11. Castle favorable/unfavorable 43/47
    O’Donnell favorable/unfavorable 45/41

  12. Delaware Libertarian says:

    Gosh darn it. How has the Republican party lowered the bar to admission to the senate, as Digby puts it, to “anyone with tits and who can wink on command.”

    I mean I want to vote for a candidate who generally wants to lower taxes, place less stringent regulation, less invasion to privacy rights (yeah, I know Castle voted for the Patriot act), and believes in a smaller role for government (but, there are roles for government). Castle would be one of the few candidates who gives some credence to that viewpoint. I know he is not an actual libertarian, but he, at least, would make things marginally better for me. O’Donnell does nothing for me. O’Donnell is a delusional woman who makes small government conservatives like me look stupid, untolerant, and extreme.

    If O’Donnell wins, you liberals will put her on a nationwide pedestal and her lying and resemblances to Palin will drag down conservativism nationwide.

    In short, I hate having no competent candidate in delaware voice my views. I am only 21 and I am already deeply cynical and frustrated about politics.

    Maybe Gary Johnson can make headway in the 2012 delaware primary or some state rep. pops up. The only republican I voted for in any election that won was Kathy Cloutier.

  13. jason330 says:

    Delaware Libertarian is describing nuance. Republicans only think in high contrast. It works when you own an entire TV network.

    BTW – Everyone…Contribute to Chris Coons. http://www.chriscoons.com/splash/

  14. The thing about these numbers is, if anything, they likely OVERstate Castle’s position. Pollsters are screening for likely voters and, even providing some leeway to account for first-time primary voters (those who have never voted in primaries before), experience from the other teabag states tells us that the ‘great unwashed’ are underrepresented.

    This poll will likely discourage potential Castle voters and energize the whackos. Maybe Prozac and St. Bodie Girl have a chance after all.

    Memo to Coons: Run as a bleeping Democrat. Energize the D’s, and the Senate seat is yours. Don’t play it safe. Lay out the extreme contrasts as starkly as possible.

  15. liberalgeek says:

    Actually, if Christine wins, the purge will be deep and wide. Not only will the Dems win the seat, but they will likely dominate the state for another generation. The moderates will leave and leave the Republican party with 30% of the electorate.

    Hallelujah.

  16. jason330 says:

    “Memo to Coons: Run as a bleeping Democrat. Energize the D’s, and the Senate seat is yours. Don’t play it safe. Lay out the extreme contrasts as starkly as possible”

    Amen to that. This may be the first statewide race in my memory in which the Democrat runs as a Democrat.

  17. jpconnorjr says:

    when i was 21 my candidate lost 49 states to Richard Nixon. Politices ebbs and flows , hang in there:)

  18. jason330 says:

    If that is true LG the split os on anyway, because after this poll tbagz will not accept a Castle primary win as legitimate.

    Hallelujah.

  19. Quick: let’s think up some ACORN scenarios for a Castle win.

  20. liberalgeek says:

    JP – I have heard at least 3 active Republicans say that they will be gone if Crazy Chrissy wins.

    Dear Republican party,

    May I suggest that if she does, spend every last dime on scotch and close the accounts. Let me know where the party is and I’ll drive every one of you home at the end of the night.

  21. jason330 says:

    UI, Do you think that there are ACORN scenarios for a Castle win that OD tbagz have not thought of?

  22. I’ve heard some Republicans say they’ll volunteer for Chris Coons if O’Donnell wins.

  23. liberalgeek says:

    how the hell am I supposed to sleep after seeing these numbers?

  24. jason330 says:

    For a counter point to PPP and El Som, check out Tobin’s recent post. There are just not that many wingnuts in Delaware.

    Now, O’D may have awakened a bunch, but are they registered to vote?

  25. jpconnorjr says:

    LG were you going for the Hunter Thompson look in your avatar? Quite frankly I can think of nothing I wojoy more than Urqle V. Carney and Crazy Chrissie V Coons. Imagine the national visits we will get. Sarah will be living (and paying the rent) up at Greenville Place (AKA Monroe Park Apts) my home 1972-74:)

  26. liberalgeek says:

    JP – Oh, I’m with you. Let’s face it, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. And if the past 2 weeks are any indication of what weirdness does to the traffic at DL, we all have to put on our man-pants.

    And yes, that is HST.

  27. delacrat says:

    When did the NewsJournal ever accord any of Castle’s prior Democrat opponents the side-by-side, front page exposure that Christine gets?

  28. jason330 says:

    Hmmm….Never? The NJ has been so in the bag for Castle over the years that these poll results can be interpreted as a rebuke to the editorial board.

  29. jpconnorjr says:

    please remember i made my prediction BEFORE the poll hit:). Having said that it will be cool having Steven Colbert live from the Starboard and John Stewart rockin’ the Lo Ho!

  30. jpconnorjr says:

    What I DO NOT want to see is Crazy Chrissie in the Camera position being interviewed on the balcony in the Russsel Building!

  31. jason330 says:

    No sane person does. The problem is, Delaware seems to have a lot of crazy people all of a sudden.

  32. jpconnorjr says:

    Jason I have great respect for John I have known him over 35 years, however, he is correct that in total there are not so many win nuts but in this specific likely voter pool, different story, apparantly. It also appears we have “wing nuts for a day” bless their hearts:)

  33. Blue Coq says:

    The sky may be falling in Greenville, but do not count your chicks before they have hatched.

    There’s always blowback when you attempt character assassination.

    Is this year the apex for the disenfranchised minority of conservatives among the GOP? Just as 2008 was the pinnacle for the disenfranchised minority of liberals among Democrats?

    If O’Donnell wins by 3 pts, and becomes the GOP candidate against Coons, does the state GOP leave her out in the cold, or do they rally around their electorally endorsed? Does it matter? Because the top GOP donors, the ones who have donated substantially to the party for years, aren’t quite economically aligned with the populists that may vote in O’Donnell.

    In other words, can O’Donnell get Michelle Rollins’ friends to write checks to Christine’s GOP, after the Tea Party constitutionalists have trampled the fields of Greenville in their victory jubilee?

  34. jason330 says:

    “Just as 2008 was the pinnacle for the disenfranchised minority of liberals among Democrats?”

    Huh? Why do Republicans always want to equate Obama’s election with this tbagz uprising? I don’t get the comparison.

  35. Blue Coq says:

    Si vous plais Jason, I am no Republican.

    The Tea Party are drinking from the same cup of euphoria that was being passed around two years ago. They want change, they are winning some victories, and they feel good about it. And after the victory…

    I drank from that cup when Senator Obama was winning primaries, and when I saw Michelle at the Grand. A major difference is that two years ago it was real home brew, and today they are drinking Faux brew.

  36. Brian Shields says:

    I predict Castle will win by about 10%. Nuthin’ but gut instinct and cynicism that O’Donnell is getting that much of a boost from Palin.

    I smell pre-election spin from the Castle side. Make it look like O’Donnell is gonna win to urge his voters to come out and ensure the win. If it looks like a landslide then they’ll not be needed and stay home. Classic pre-election fear tactic vote mongering.

    ..and on the plus side it’ll make O’Donnell look bad when it’s pre-released that she is winning, but loses handily.

  37. here comes us hillbillys from down in the fields..get a grip…WE ARE VOTERS with the same rights as the folks up in the Chateau Country..Allow us to vote our principle over par….wait a minute. I don’t have to tell you who I am voting for, we go in a booth with a curtain in the UNITED STATE OF AMERICA…People..wake up and ask questions…get to know the candidates and their views and vote for the one that you feel best supports your views and beliefs.

    VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE OF Y O U R choice. But please take a minute of your time and stop by your polling location and VOTE.

  38. Brian Shields says:

    “get to know the candidates and their views and vote for the one that you feel best supports your views and beliefs.”

    Who are you kidding, there aren’t any. They are both hollow puppets.

    One says what her donors want her to say, and the other votes how his party tells him to, but then tells you what you want to hear to try to justify it.

    Which would you want, the one that lies before, or after the vote is cast?

  39. Aoine says:

    Chateau county is more popuated than hillbilly country – numbers are just that… numbers…and its the count that matters…

    deal with it…

    Castle has too many politically empty answers and O’Donnell has no answers so she doesn’t have to answer for her answers…

    they both SUK

    Vote for Coon

  40. Joe Cass says:

    I want my Delaware back!

  41. skippertee says:

    Yeah,I want to be able to drag race on Limestone Road again[Rte,7]like we did as teenagers,but it’s never gonna happen.
    Fucking progress.

  42. anonone says:

    Christine is starting to be referred to nationally as the “anti-masturbation candidate.” I, for one, am looking forward seeing to that debate.

    By the way, the poll did not report the results of the Obama approval question that they asked.

  43. Jason330 says:

    Just heard the Paln radio ad for OD. Holy shit. Everday is Christmas Day.

  44. jpconnorjr says:

    no christmas would be a sign at Hacks “Sarah and Chrissie hot dancing action! tonight at 10!”

  45. Geezer says:

    “anyone with tits and who can wink on command.”

    Isn’t this the natural result of having a party that appeals far more to men than to women?

  46. anon says:

    What matters in a primary is not raw numbers, but passion. Who’s going to draw people to the polls on Tuesday – boring, dry, staid, moderate, known-factor Castle, or insurgent, energetic, hot, challenger O’Donnell?

  47. Geezer says:

    “Memo to Coons: Run as a bleeping Democrat.”

    Good luck with that. Coons is about as progressive as Tom Carper. Better than Castle, yes, but just as pro-business as Carper (and, for that matter, Markell). And if his rumored job with Obama’s administration is really waiting at the end of the rainbow, how hard will he run? If Castle survives — and remember, all that has to happen is for NCCo Republicans to show up on Tuesday for that to play out — will Coons move in for the kill? Or will he play a nice, gentlemanly match to preserve bridges in the state and allow the Biden Succession to play out as planned?

  48. Republicans only think in high contrast. It works when you own an entire TV network.

    *

    love it!
    ~

    Coons is about as progressive as Tom Carper… just as pro-business as Carper (and, for that matter, Markell).

    *

    AGREED

  49. anon says:

    Coons is about as progressive as Tom Carper. Better than Castle, yes, but just as pro-business as Carper (and, for that matter, Markell).

    I know what you mean, but I disagree with your usage of “pro-business.”

    Business has no f’n clue what is good for them. It is a stupid parasite that kills its host (the middle class).

    If by “pro-business” you mean “in the pocket of banks,” then you may be right… at least Coons is a blank slate (to me) has done nothing to convince me otherwise.

  50. Pro-business in the sense that he has totally revamped county land use code to accomodate the construction business at the expense of both quality of life for NCC residents and at the expense of the state’s levels of infrastructure-related debt (including building more schools). How interesting that a majority portion of the county’s ARRA bonds went to service his own lawyer’s firm’s new digs on Rodney Square and Paul Clark’s wife’s firm’s project off of Penn. Ave.

  51. mediawatch says:

    NJ didn’t bother to report on PPP results. Celia’s off writing about a minor party candidate for AG. Makes you wonder.

  52. Jason330 says:

    That would be a mistake. He is going to need to match her fire in the belly to get the Dem base and convince the leaners. This is no slam dunk for Coons. He could lose if he plays it too safe.

  53. NJ didn’t bother to report on PPP results.

    The poll results probably came too late to make today’s edition. Of course, that’s the whole problem with newspapers – they are covering the news 1 day late.

    Geezer,

    Have you seen Coons speak? He comes across as pretty progressive actually. However, I predict if O’Donnell wins he moves to the right some to capture some of the Castle Republican moderates.

  54. I smell pre-election spin from the Castle side.

    Brian,

    Are you alleging that Castle is releasing a bad poll for PR? That would be insane of Castle. PPP is an independent polling firm.

  55. Anon says:

    Coons is definitely progressive–glad him and Markell are working to grow business here–this is not an agrarian society anymore and we have to be business friendly. People need jobs!

  56. Here’s the spin from Castle:

    GOP operative Don Mell, a Castle supporter, questioned PPP’s turnout model and predicted that some Tea Party supporters would discover Tuesday they were ineligible to participate because they aren’t registered Republicans.

    “This poll seems weighted more to conservatives than moderates. There are still many right center Republicans in this state versus conservative ones and this may drive them to the polls,” Mell said.

    “This still comes down to who gets their people out, Castle’s moderates, mainly from New Castle County who are not used to voting in primaries, or her hardcore supporters in the southern part of the state,” he added.

  57. anonone says:

    “some Tea Party supporters would discover Tuesday they were ineligible to participate ”

    It would almost be worth hanging around the polls to see the ensuing comedy when that happens!

  58. The problem is when you survey a 4 thousand voters representing every district with only a 2% margin of error. You get the same results. I know of 4 polls and 3 firms which seem to have the same indication. Castle cannot leak any internal polls which show him with more than the 44% of the vote in the ppp poll. He is in big trouble. If he pulls it out, he will have to run the table on the undecided voters.

    I think the house race is close to a lock, but who knows. It is really all about turnout.

  59. Bleeping pollsters are not polling people not eligible to vote.

    Even if the poll is within the margin for error, at the very worst, this is a dead heat. Unless PPP is fulla shit. And, of the registered voters, is there any doubt that the enthusiasm factor is in O’Donnell’s favor? And exactly what is happening right now for undecideds to be breaking Castle’s way? If he didn’t have them by now, he ain’t getting them.

    BTW, the whole anti-masturbation thing has FINALLY given me an idea for that long-awaited DL Group poster. The photo: We’re all wearing masks, preferably of the Mardi Gras variety. Perhaps not suggestive clothes, but those that confirm our affinity for Devil worship. Maybe even latex gloves to add to the effect. Above the picture…”DELAWARE LIBERAL…” Below the photo…”PRO-MASTURBATION EVER SINCE WE HIT PUBERTY”.

  60. BTW, I don’t think we have a ‘sore loser’ law in DE, a la CT.

    Don’t think Castle can find a spot on the ballot now.

    If so, maybe the D’s can still find someone to run against Mike Ramone and St. Bodie Girl.

  61. Geezer says:

    “Have you seen Coons speak? He comes across as pretty progressive actually.”

    There’s a gap between speech and action. The bottom line on Chris Coons is that he has absolutely no political courage and waffles enough to open an IHOP. I could understand his reluctance to stand up to Gordonberry, but there’s not much of an excuse for him failing to stand up against Paul Clark. Again, he’ll have my vote, but I predict a no-bridges-burned campaign, because he is widely rumored to have a fallback position.

  62. anon says:

    Look for about as much coverage of this poll in the TNJ dead-tree edition as there was of the Palin announcement – meaning a tiny brief on the bottom of the Local page.

    When COD wins, everyone at TNJ is going to be getting drunk. They did not see this coming. Their favorite guy, Castle, knocked out by a bunch of rednecks? Sussex County defeating New Castle? The world has turned upside down. Look for a hit piece on the hillbillies by Ron Williams on Thursday.

  63. Geezer says:

    “Coons is definitely progressive–glad him and Markell are working to grow business here–this is not an agrarian society anymore and we have to be business friendly. People need jobs!”

    Nice to hear from our “progressive” friends in the union movement. Sell that crap to the morons in the laborers’ union. We ain’t buying.

  64. anon says:

    El Som wrote: “BTW, I don’t think we have a ’sore loser’ law in DE, a la CT. Don’t think Castle can find a spot on the ballot now. If so, maybe the D’s can still find someone to run against Mike Ramone and St. Bodie Girl.”

    You’re right, the deadline has passed to get on the November ballot. The Dems dropped the ball in the 19th, just like the Rs did for AG and the 20th. The only way anyone could run would be to file as a write-in – deadline is Sept. 30.

  65. I LOVE the references to ‘Liberal-leaning PPP’. Three grafs in the story about that. Not one word of response from the Castle camp in the story. Was that part of the story not newsworthy? 3 grafs on a pollster’s ‘liberal leanings’, not one word from Castle. A ‘no response’ would have been every bit as newsworthy as the response itself. Wonder how the News-Journal refers to Rasmussen, which has a far less accurate track record than PPP, and whose polls always tilt extremely to the R’s. AKA, the Fox News of Polling.

    The News-Journal has fancied itself as part of the Delaware Way for, well, forever. And they have been. When the paper pushed for the first so-called round of education reform, back in the Carper years, they dropped all pretense of objectivity, and aligned its news coverage to dovetail with its editorial slant. Anyone who dared to criticize any aspect of the ‘reform’ was castigated as an idiot and/or obstructionist on the editorial pages.

    Nothing is more inextricably linked to the Delaware Way as the small group of multi-billionaires in Greenville who, with the willing acquiescence of the News-Journal, have for countless decades succeeded in protecting and promoting their interests over the general well-being of ordinary Delawareans. Mike Castle has been THEIR Congressman.

    This will be a huge loss for the News-Journal. Its Potemkin Village of Plausible Relevance will soon be gone. As will the Plausible Relevance of Chateau Country. Which, regardless of who tore it down, may well be the best thing to happen to Delaware in my lifetime.

  66. O’Donnell got the important crazy lady Michele Bachmann endorsement.

    Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) used Twitter on Sunday night to talk up Delaware’s Christine O’Donnell, who is running against Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) for the state’s Republican Senate nomination.

    “@ChristineOD,” Bachmann tweeted, “is right on all the issues.. pro-job growth, pro-life, anti cap-and-trade and anti-Obama care! Go Christine!”

    O’Donnell replied several hours later.

    “@BachmannforMN6 Thanks for your support. It seems that common sense conservative solutions aren’t that common anymore. Time to change that,” she said.

  67. I love ‘Bulo’s idea about a poster for DL.

  68. anon says:

    El Som,

    The editors and executives up there also have a serious problem with women in positions of power. Witness the trashing of Ruth Ann Minner and subsequent ass-kissing of Jack Markell. Any editor of the feminine persuasion up there has not lasted long.

  69. An interesting thing about an O’Donnell win -

    it would show how little influence TNJ has in the state & how little the gobs of Chateau Country money matters.

    Both Castle and Rollins are rolling in campaign cash. O’Donnell has not raised that much (but decent numbers) and Urquhart’s fundraising has been pretty weak.

  70. liberalgeek says:

    Somewhere, Beau Biden is softly weeping for what could have been.

  71. Don’t think so, LG. I really think he is/was a reluctant candidate. I don’t think this is what he wants to do with his life. Of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t wind up doing it anyway…

  72. liberalgeek says:

    Was he reluctant because of his presumed opponent or because he doesn’t want to go into the family business? I think it is the first, rather than the second.

  73. anon says:

    I think it’s the second. I don’t think Beau wants to be in politics. Look for him to step down in four years.

  74. yisyac says:

    Citing “Mental Anguish,” Christine O’Donnell Sought $6.9 Million in Gender Discrimination Lawsuit Against Conservative Group

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/ blogs/citing-mental-anguish- christine-odonnell-sought-69- million-gender-discrimination- lawsuit-again

  75. O’Donnell is going to win with help from “Hillary Democrats.”

    Christine O’Donnell says she has an election strategy — and it includes appealing to those die-hard PUMAs who wanted to see Hillary Clinton elected president in 2008.

    “I do want to point out that we have broad based support, we’ve got a lot of Hillary Democrats working behind us — with us — because they’re frustrated with what this administration is doing,” O’Donnell (R-DE) said this morning on Fox News.

  76. a. price says:

    all the PUMAs like dom….
    so DL ladies…. does it just drive you insane that other women think ALL females are so ignorant that they would disgregard their own interests, their own opinions, everything that should be taken into accont when voting, and just go all “GIRL POWER”?

  77. Grania says:

    Completely certifiable! I’m just aghast at this product of someone’s imagination. Suzy one-note needs to get a job before she thinks she can “bring” jobs to Delaware. Good God, I can’t wait till this is over tomorrow.

  78. Brian Shields says:

    UI – Just my usual paranoid hunches. I would say not by Castle, but inner national GOP conspiracy types trying to puppeteer the media into spin control.

  79. El is right on this one, the polls that I know of are only of people elgible to vote in the Republican primary. When you start with the voter list, it is awefully hard to go too far off. It is a good thing for the GOP that the party may finally become as much of a home for Sam’s clubbers as country clubbers.

  80. just kiddin says:

    Odonnell thinks she can pick up Hilary women? The woman is filled with delusions along with her paranoia. Don’t think any of the tea partiers can win. Castle is a liberal compared with righty neo con dumb ODonnell! Give the dems Odonnel…Bring her on!

  81. Brian Shields says:

    Ugh.. who’d wanna pick up “Hillary Women”? Ewww. I’d rather go home to an empty bed.

  82. Brooke says:

    Sorry, Christine. I supported Hillary, early on. But the nomination of Sarah (I’m nuts and a liar) Palin made me work my ASS off for President Obama. I was TOTALLY offended that that jackass McCain applied his sophisticated “all cats are gray at midnight” analysis to women’s voting strategies.

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