Liveblogging the primaries, 5/18

Filed in National by on May 18, 2010

This is a liveblog to track the results from today’s primary results in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Oregon, and the special elections in Hawaii and PA-12.

My bets:
Pennsylvania – Sestak, Onorato, Critz, Pike (ugh)
Kentucky – Paul, Conway
Oregon – Kitzhaber, Dudley
Arkansas – Lincoln (with runoff needed, I hope), Boozman (ditto)
Hawaii – Djou (and pundits will miss the point – more than 50% of the vote will go to the two Democrats in this anything-goes-plurality-wins race)

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X Stryker is also the proprietor of the currently-dormant poll analysis blog Election Inspection.

Comments (42)

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  1. xstryker says:

    KY-Sen (R): Paul 51%, Greyson 42%
    Rand Paul is Ron Paul’s son, whereas Trey Greyson is the establishment (ie Mitch McConnell) pick for Bunning’s open seat. It’s pretty hard to imagine either being worse than Bunning, who is one of the all time worst senators along with Inhofe.

    KY-Sen (D): Mongiardo 48%, Conway 39%.
    Mongiardo is the more conservative of the two, but not necessarily more electable. The last poll I saw had Paul beating Conway by only 3, and Mongiardo by 5. Mongiardo’s been leading in the polls, but Conway’s been gaining of late. Mongiardo is expected to lead the rural early counties, so wait-and-see is the operative word.

  2. liberalgeek says:

    Any interest in liveblogging tonight during the returns?

  3. xstryker says:

    You mean a chat? I’d do that.

  4. xstryker says:

    Paul 53%, Greyson 34% 586/3575 precints reporting.
    Conway 47%, Mongiardo 40% – although this is including a large portion of Conway’s base.

  5. MJ says:

    Latest from KY – Paul 59%, Grayson 36%; Conway 49%, Mongiardo 38%. 28% of the vote counted

  6. MJ says:

    The Washington Post has called the KY Confederate Primary for Rand Paul.

  7. xstryker says:

    Conway 49%, Mongiardo 38% 1045/3575 reporting
    Louisville breaking heavily for Conway, but many rural counties remain that will likely go to Mongiardo. The key area to watch is Kenton county. Mongiardo needs to win there if he’s going to come out ahead.
    Paul 59%, Greyson 36% – and the AP calls it for Paul!

  8. xstryker says:

    Conway 50%, Mongiardo 38% 1341/3575 – Conway leading in Kenton so far. Swing State Project notes a twitter comment suggesting the Mongiardo camp is worried about low turnout in rural counties. Well, duh, the enthusiam advantage lies with conservative Republicans, not conservative Democrats.

  9. xstryker says:

    Conway 49 Mongiardo 39 1614/3575

  10. xstryker says:

    Specter 64 Sestak 36 95/9233 precints reporting

  11. xstryker says:

    Williams 52% Onorato 29%

  12. Jason330 says:

    With 1% reporting, looks like Arlen has this wrapped up.

  13. xstryker says:

    Conway 46, Mongiardo 41 2751/3575
    Paul 60, Greyson 35 – AP called it for Paul long ago

  14. xstryker says:

    AR-Sen: Halter 43, Lincoln 40 12/2516
    Halter’s the progressive AND more electable vs. Boozman. Lincoln’s in the pocket of big corporations.

  15. xstryker says:

    Specter 54, Sestak 46 1087/9233

  16. xstryker says:

    Onorato 41, Williams 28, Wagner 23

  17. xstryker says:

    PA-12: Critz (D) 59, Burns (R) 38 17/597

  18. xstryker says:

    Conway 45, Mongiardo 42 3068/3575

  19. xstryker says:

    AR-Sen (R): Boozman 43%, Baker 11%, Coleman 8% 12/2516
    Boozman needs to stay under 50% to force a runoff that will drain his resources.

  20. xstryker says:

    Lincoln 48%, Halter 40% 17/2516
    Halter needs a runoff to pull this off, so let’s hope Lincoln stays under 50%

  21. xstryker says:

    Specter 52 Sestak 48 1769/9233

  22. xstryker says:

    AP calls PA Sen GOP nomination for Toomey

  23. xstryker says:

    Critz 60 Burns 38 33/597
    Doing well in Cambria Co, but how will Critz fare in Westmoreland and Washington counties? They have yet to report.

  24. xstryker says:

    Conway 45 Mongiardo 43 3181/3575

  25. xstryker says:

    Incumbent Dem Tim Holden losing 46% Sheila Dow-Ford 54% 38/407 precints reporting – Dow-Ford is an activist who attacked Holder for his vote against Health Care Reform

  26. xstryker says:

    Holden 61 Dow-Ford 39 96/407
    There we go. Not that I’m really rooting for Holden, but a win for Dow-Ford would be pretty unexpected.

  27. xstryker says:

    Sestak 148,838, Specter 149,824 (50/50) 2998/9233

  28. xstryker says:

    AP declares Onorato (and Corbett) the winners in the PA Gov primary

  29. xstryker says:

    Conway declared winner in Kentucky

  30. xstryker says:

    Sestak 53% Specter 47% 5819/9233
    AP calls it for Sestak!!!

  31. Winners so far:
    Sestak (called by AP)
    Interesting fact in KY primary. Mongiardo got more votes than Rand Paul, Democratic turnout was quite high. Will we hear about this tomorrow? Somehow I doubt it.
    Critz is killing Burns in PA-12 (has it been called yet?)
    Lincoln leads Halter so far, but is below critical 50% mark.

  32. Burns has conceded the Critz in PA-12. Democrats must be feeling really good right now.

  33. ek says:

    Even Politico has called it for Sestak.

  34. xstryker says:

    Hotline reports Burns is conceding. Democrat Mark Critz wins the special election in PA-12! (Murtha’s seat)

  35. skippertee says:

    Sestak WINS PA.!!!! Now the quest begins to SOCK-IT TOOMEY!!!!

  36. anon says:

    Rand Paul has got some kind of cult going.

    Progressives need to get behind Halter and Sestak NOW or else those wins will be wasted. Send them some money.

    Especially send Halter some money TODAY; he has a runoff coming up soon.

    Media is working hard to force the results into the “anti-incumbency, anti-DC” template. AP story, the results

    …provided further evidence that voters are in the mood to choose outsiders over insiders.

    An exception was the race to fill a vacant House seat in a conservative-leaning Pennsylvania congressional district; voters elected the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha’s one-time aide, Mark Critz, over Republican businessman Tim Burns.

    An exception? Two non-incumbents running for an open seat? Note the careful segue (“outsiders vs. insiders”) to avoid noting that the voters simply preferred the Democrat in an open race.

  37. jason330 says:

    The Specter lose is great news for Coons. The fake moderate game that Arlen played for so long was nearly identical to Castle’s fake moderate game. Coons now has a great template.

  38. bamboozer says:

    Let us all join hands and rejoice in the defeat of Specter! And lets play close attention to Rand Paul, he’s already said some stuff that must make Mitch “The Kentucky Raisin” McConnell uncomfortable to say the least.

  39. Nosy says:

    I’m still shaking my head that Specter got 46% of the vote yesterday! WTF?!? Who are these people voting for him?

  40. Rebecca says:

    Umm, just noticing that Rand Paul got fewer total votes than either of the Democratic candidates in the KY primary. I don’t know what that means but comes November perhaps we’ll see if this actually gets the D’s out to vote.

  41. Geezer says:

    “Who are these people voting for [Specter]?”

    Union folks, mostly, particularly in Philly. Specter was the No. 1 Congressional backer of the Delaware River dredging, a big union priority (so much for Dems being the party of Greenitude).