Rasmussen Puts Castle Up By 23%
Rasmussen released a new poll for the Delaware U.S. Senate race.
The U.S. Senate race in Delaware is virtually unchanged over the past two months, with Republican Mike Castle continuing to draw strong support from the state’s voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Delaware shows Castle picking up 55% support to Democrat Chris Coons’ 32%. Seven percent (7%) of the state’s voters prefer some other candidate, while another seven percent (7%) are undecided.
It’s Rasmussen, so take it with a grain of salt. Rasmussen identifies where Coons needs to work:
Seventy-five percent (75%) of Delaware voters who Strongly Favor repeal give their vote to Castle, while Coons picks up 64% support from those who Strongly Oppose repeal.
Seventy-one percent (71%) of Delaware voters correctly identify Republicans as the party criticized by some as the Party of No for their unified opposition to President Obama’s agenda. Thirty-nine percent (39%) see this label as a bad thing these days, while 30% say it’s good thing to be labeled that way. Another 31% are not sure.
So 36% of people who favor health care reform give their vote to Castle despite the fact that Castle has never voted to reform health care.
Also in the poll – Markell has 58% approval.
Tags: Chris Coons, DE-Sen, Mike Castle
Now we need PPP or somebody to do a poll to calibrate against this one.
I’m afraid the demographic that Coons really trails in is “Those who have no idea what the hell they’re talking about, but will vote for Castle because they’ve heard of him”.
Agreed Scott-pretty sad the constituency is so uninformed!
10% in the poll chose Castle because they think he’s a handsome mystery writer who has a gig investigating murders in NYC with a beauty queen side-kick.
“Mike Castle” does sound like a 1970s TV detective.
There’s plenty of time for Coons to turn things around. No one ever thought Biden could win in 72, and he did.
I’m no political genius, but I’d have to guess that “likely voters” are more inclined to vote for Castle because a) they know who he is and b) His opponent is virtually unknown outside of NCC AND has alienated many NCC voters.
It is still very early. Filing deadline is still almost 3 months away. A lot of voters will not follow closely until after Labor Day.I think Coons has time.
Castle is a congressional republican. If the low information voters get that one piece of information he is in trouble. If castle can muddy up that fact – he wins in a walk.
To know coons is to hate him..Stick a fork in him, he’s done. it’s was over before it got started!
Hey, coming our to lurking mode! I got a call tonight, pretty in-depth survey. I think from the questions that it was probably paid for by either Coons or Democratic party. I think I was on the phone for half an hour or so. Lots of questions with “if you knew that…” started with Coons, then Castle – would you be more likely, less likely to vote for…
I did have to correct the pollster on how to pronounce Markell and Hockessin! I did ask who was sponsoring, she said they don’t tell them who is paying for polls.
Asked about voting record for Castle, then went into the strawman thing – i.e. people may say about Coons… Sorry I don’t have too much info, lots of questions! Anyway, asked more likely/less likely – I just kept saying much more likely to vote for Coons!
I went to the link and read the Rasmussen poll. I think one needs to discount the GOP margin in a Rasmussen poll as historically GOP candidates almost always fare better in a Rasmussen poll than they do in the election. At the bottom of the Rasmussen Reports link there was a link to the most recent Iowa Senate poll. I was surprised to see in that Rasmussen poll Grassley is polling between 53-57% (depending upon which of the 3 Democratic candidates they are asked to pick between). If Roxanne Conlin is the Democratic candidate, and she’s the odds on favorite in the June primary, Grassley’s support is at 53% and Conlin at 40%. Grassley’s support had been as high as 59% against Conlin a few months ago. 13% between a 5 term GOP incumbent and a potential opponent is actually good news for Conlin.
What I don’t understand is Castle is at 55% and Coons at 32% with support for Coons unchanged in the last month, and Castle gaining 1%. The 23% gap is not as worrisome as the poll indicates Castle leads Coons by a more than 4 to 1 margin among independent voters. In the Iowa poll Grassley’s lead among non-party voters was less than 2 to 1. What I don’t understand is that Nate Silver’s 538.com has Delaware at a 90% chance of going GOP, which I view as giving Coons a 10% chance at winning the race, but Iowa is not even listed among the 17 states Silver lists with a chance of flipping. North Dakota is listed at 100%, Arkansas 92%, Delaware 3rd at 90% and Arizona is listed 17th with a 7% chance of flipping. If Roxanne Conlin is polling 8% higher than Coons, and Grassley is polling behind Castle, and both Grassley has been going down and Conlin increasing in the polls (Rasmussen poll ) since January, why isn’t Iowa listed as a state with any chance of flipping in 2010? I would think if Coons has a 10% chance of beating Castle, Conlin should at least have some percent chance of beating Grassley.
At 538.com coons has improved from an 8% dog to 10% probability of winning. Woo hoo!!!!