2009 College Football Preview

Update: Well, every newspaper and magazine puts out a preview which is usually forgotten when the season is over. Spurred on by a loyal reader, let’s see how our preview held up at the end of the season.

This is Delaware Liberal’s first serious foray into sports other than McNabb is a No Heart Chump stories. joncoh, a friend of the blog and a serious college football nut agreed to take a stab at the 2009 College Football Preview. Enjoy.

The 2009-2010 NCAA College football season is ready to swing into action beginning on Thursday, September 3^rd. And with the new season upon us, many fans hope this will be the year for their Alma Mater to make a run!

However, while many sports including football can produce shocking results, one thing is without a doubt. The vast majority of schools enter this season with zero chance at winning the BCS Championship or even making it to a major bowl game. Instead, they play hard in hopes of merely ruining another school’s dream season and perhaps, in the process, earning a birth to play in the Depend’s Undergarment Bowl.

This isn’t meant to be rude or insulting. It’s just a statement of fact. Only a small handful of the 100+ division IA schools start this season with a plan for a BCS Bowl appearance. So if you happen to call one of the many irrelevant schools your Alma Mater, please don’t take offense. Wear your colors proud! And remember… there is always next year.

So, let’s start by stating the BCS Championship Contenders, in no particular order they are:

USC (Pac 10), Florida (SEC), Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Oklahoma (Big 12), Penn State (Big 10), Ohio State (Big 10), and Virginia Tech (ACC).

That’s it. No one else will be there in the end. It is also with extreme confidence that we proclaim the championship game to be between 2 of the 8 teams in this list.

Let’s take this a step further . . . It is a very safe bet that two teams will not meet from the same conference in the BCS Championship game. Therefore, there are only 10 possible BCS Championship games that could be derived from this list.  And, early games between Virginia Tech and Alabama as well as USC and Ohio State will probably knock two of these teams out by mid-September.

Isn’t this level of predictability great for the sport? These are the best teams, and these are the teams that will be there in the end. Why are there so many BCS haters??? All this talk about a playoff just destroys the integrity of the regular season… doesn’t it? Only USC, Florida, Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma have a chance at playing in the championship if they lose one game. While Penn State, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech can considered themselves eliminated from National Contention with a single loss. Isn’t that the ideal playoff system? A 12 or 13 game playoff! Limp through an NFL season at 9-7… grab a wild card, and then win just 4 games and you could be the Superbowl champ! Not in College Football. While big match-ups fuel the excitement, history tells us it is the lesser prominent conference games (particularly those on the road) that prove to be the make or break for many.

What’s the worst case scenario? That we end up with 3 (or more) undefeated teams at the end of the season… and then we have debate. Isn’t that what we liberals love more than anything? Debate fuels the soul! When we don’t have Rush Limbaugh to debate . . . we debate each other!

Now, what makes this pre-season review better than every other, is that we are only going to focus on the relevant teams (national contender) . . . and a little bit on the “wanna be relevant” (may upset a national contender, may appear to be in the hunt, but come December . . . it is a sure thing that they won’t be a contender.)

Sorry. Better luck next year to everyone else!

ACC

While this conference clearly seems to lack greatness, it proved last year to be one of the most competitive conferences in that few games featured large point spreads. Parity and mediocrity proved to be true excitement for ACC fans with the best conference record being shared by 4 teams at 5-3. This was truly great for the pure fans of college football, but bad for any hopes of the national spotlight. Can things change this year?

Relevant

1. Virginia Tech – After winning two conference championships in a row, can they put it together this year and pull away from the field? The first game of the season against out of conference powerhouse Alabama could prove to be the biggest hurdle in the Hoakies attempt for excellence. Win this game and expect the Hoakies to roll through the season earning another BCS bid . . . perhaps even the big one. Of course, a loss to Alabama not only eliminates them from national contention, but it just might just set-up another mediocre year.

Wanna be Relevant

2. Florida State – Is the Bobby Bowden era coming to an end? Will he leave Florida State on top? While FSU has no shot to run the table they certainly will get their chance to stomp out Florida and/or Virginia Tech’s miracle seasons. Overall, the FSU fans should be thinking Gator Bowl or better or we may see more “For Sale” signs appearing on Coach Bowden’s front yard.

3. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets haven’t been in the National Spotlight for years, but the return of the nation’s most prolific rushing attack could prove to make some noise. Their schedule sets-up nicely with the season on the-line against the Hoakies in mid-October.  Should they be perfect the whole way . . . their last regular season game against out of conference foe Georgia may prove to be more than just another rivalry game. But alas, GT has yet to play big in the big games and seems to play small in the small games and we expect them to be beaten by some team with much less talent. It is hard to see the Yellow Jackets being anything more than a thorn.

Irrelevant

4. UNC
5. Clemson
6. Miami
7. NC State
8. Wake Forest
9. Boston College
10. Maryland
11. Duke
12. Virginia

Big East

The whole conference is irrelevant. What a tragedy that one of these teams will earn a guaranteed BCS spot in the BCS bowl. This conference is no better than the WAC, MAC, or Mountain West.  If there was any reason to challenge the BCS system, the fact that one of these Big East Irrelevant teams will be in a BCS bowl game (again) is as good a reason as any. While West Virginia has had some competitive teams in the past, this year will prove that even a schedule that lacks one top 25 opponent is still too much for them. Does Cincinnati win the conference again? Who cares??? No reason to list each of the schools here as that would be far more press than any of them deserve.

Big 11

Yeah . . . we can count. With all of the recent BCS blunders by Ohio State, Rich Rodriguez (aka “Dick Rod” as penned by many unhappy UM Boosters) driving Michigan into the bottom tier of College Football, and Penn State’s  off the field issues, it is hard to see how the Big 10 will restore its reputation any time soon. But don’t count this conference out just yet. Big 10 football has always been about one thing… defense. And while defense isn’t exciting, or particularily fascinating to watch, it does win championships. This year, early on the Big 10 has numerous out of conference games that could help to earn the conference a little more respect, but unless we see a better bowl season, don’t expect the Big 10 to reclaim any of its forgone national respect.

Relevant

1. Penn State – Easily the lightest schedule of the 8 contenders. It isn’t hard to see how Penn State runs the table this year and lands in the National Championship game. Of course, it seemed that the Nitters were well on their way last year and then slipped up at Iowa leaving countless fans stunned and angered. The bad luck continued as the consolation prize for missing the National Championship game was getting blown out by the best team in the country on the road in the Rose Bowl. The Lions host Ohio State in November which already sets up to be the conference championship game.

2. Ohio State –  The Buckeyes will have an early season opportunity to earn the Big 10 some of its reputation back as they host USC on September 12. Perhaps the only fan-base that will be rooting as hard for a buckeye win as the Bucknuts Alumni will be the Nittany Lions. Should OSU make it past the Trojans, it does set-up the Big 10’s most exciting game against Penn State to be more than just a rivalry game, perhaps the winner will be headed to glory.

Wanna Be Relevant

3. Iowa – Last year the Hawkeyes did more than just ruin Penn State’s season, they sent a message to the rest of the Big 10 that Iowa football is on the way back. Yeah… well, maybe not so fast. The departure of their workhorse to the NFL will be an impossible void to fill. Plus, there is little chance they will catch Penn State sleeping in a Happy Valley revenge game. Expect Iowa to finish 3^rd or 4^th and maybe this year they can win the Cap One or Outback Bowl against whatever highly favored SEC opponent they face.

4. Michigan State – What is it with this team. It seems every year they look to be a “watch out for next year” team… and then next year comes and well… Again, just another tough program that won’t make it to glory, but certainly will be a potential stumbling block for some teams. We aren’t sure if we have ever seen the Spartans actually play 4 quarters of football and unless they figure out the length of a college game, they will be embarrassed in their Bowl Game.

Irrelevant

5. Northwestern
6. Wisconsin
7. Illinois
8. Minnesota
9. Purdue
10. Michigan
11. Indiana

Big 12

We would like to rename this conference the Big 2. Outside of Texas and Oklahoma, there isn’t anything here other than smoke and mirrors. Sure, Missouri, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State have all seemed to have a nice season or two in the recent years, but this conference just gets way too much street cred. Oklahoma’s BCS appearances have been as dreadful as Ohio States. These offensive powers just throw a ton of points up against each other and games seem to come down to whoever has the last possession. Sure . . . Texas got flat out screwed last year, but if the Big Ten was as bad as everyone said it was, the Longhorns sure had their hands full with Big 10 runner-up Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Does anyone really think Texas would have faired better in the BCS Championship then their rival Oklahoma? We don’t.

Relevant

1. Texas – With a lofty pre-season ranking, things are setting up nicely for the Longhorns, but something is just telling us that this could be another season of disappointment. Of all the Big 12 teams, they may be the only one that knows what Defense is… they just have to play it. Of course, they also have to remember that shutting down the opposition’s running game is only effective if you can contain the pass. Last year, the Longhorns did just that ranking in the top 5 against the run . . . but showing a dismal 100+ ranking against the pass.

2. Oklahoma – Hopefully, we as fans won’t have to witness yet another Sooner debacle in a BCS Bowl.  The return of a Heisman winning QB provides this team with the field General that can help lead them to greatness. But, the Sooners have to replace 4 of their offensive Line and while the defense brings a lot back, bringing back a unit that allowed a ton of points (over 24 per game) may not be the greatest news.

Wanna Be Relevant

3. Oklahoma State – This year’s Texas Tech. Be honest, at any point in the season last year, did you actually think that Texas Tech was going to play for the National Championship? We didn’t either. Another year of scoring should keep the Cowboys in games, but the arena football style just won’t get them there in the long run.

4. Texas Tech – Big time talent losses will return this team to where it came from. The good news is that the lack of Defense in the conference should allow them to put enough points on the board to keep them in the top 20 most of the year.

5. Missouri – The bottom won’t just fall out… it might flat out disappear. But the Tigers will have more than one chance to catch someone sleeping.

Irrelevant

6. Nebraska
7. Iowa State
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Kansas State
11. Baylor
12. Colorado

PAC 10

There is a pack here . . . it just has 9 in it. This year will be no different than any other in the last decade. The pack will battle with each other as they all watch the Alpha Dog, USC run away with it yet again. All recruiting battles are won by USC which means that all other teams duke it out amongst themselves. But, we have seen every year that one of the pack catches the lazy dog sleeping. Who will it be this year?

Relevant

1. USC – Let’s start by making a statement that Pete Carroll must be one of the worst coaches in College Football. What you say? Well he clearly is the best recruiter, but every year this NFL loaded team always seems to stumble when you least expect it. USC will have, as usual, a stable of running backs, a trench filled with NFL caliber talent, and outstanding QB, prolific wide-receivers, and a defensive backfield with perhaps the best defensive player in college football. There is no reason this team shouldn’t run the table blowing out everyone they face. Yet, we have seen this movie before!

Wanna Be Relevant

2. Oregon – They got the facilities (thanks Phil Knight!) and they have offensive talent. They will score a lot of points, but just don’t seem to have a shot at greatness with USC on their schedule every year. Their out of conference schedule is tough as they play both TCU and Boise State, two teams groveling for national respect and hungry to make a statement against the Mighty Ducks.

3. Oregon State – A young team that stole the BCS Championship away from the Trojans last year. Don’t expect USC to let that go when they get them in the Coliseum this year.

4. California – They will join the Oregons in a battle for second, but this year… 2^nd may earn the right to play Ohio State or Penn State in the Rose Bowl.

Irrelevant

5. Arizona State
6. UCLA
7. Arizona
8. Washington State
9. Washington
10. Stanford

SEC

Is Southern Speed a myth? Not if the last few years are any indication of success. But like many years, escaping the SEC unscathed seems almost an impossible feet, which fortunately the polls recognize and continue to reward one (and two) loss teams a chance to play for glory.  This conference produces some of the top NFL players on both sides of the ball and don’t expect anything different this year.

Relevant

1. Florida – Why did the two time Heisman candidate come back? Probably because he won’t be a success as an NFL QB. The good news for Gator fans is that he recognizes this is his pinnacle and Florida has a chance to win an unprecedented 3^rd consecutive National Championship in the BCS era. It is hard to see anybody repeating this kind of dominance in the near future.

2. Alabama – They surprised everyone last year and almost did the unthinkable. This year, Alabama will look to take the next step and win the SEC earning them their right to play for the Championship. The first game against Virginia Tech should let us all know whether the Crimson Tide plans on being a contender or a pretender.

Wanna Be Relevant

3. Georgia – It just cannot be possible to replace the best QB and RB combination in college football. But the Bulldogs will try their best and clearly have their chance to make an impact on which team represents the SEC. The last regular season game against ACC Rival Georgia Tech, may pan out to be one of the bigger contests in this long storied rivalry.

4. Mississippi – So last year they snuck up and stole one from Florida. What’s different this year? Expectation. No one expected Ole Miss to make the turn around that they did last year, they could do no wrong. This year, expectations are high and that usually means only one thing. Let down. We hope the Ole Miss Faithful likes steak . . . because they seem Tampa bound.

5. LSU – Speed comes . . . and goes.  As fast as LSU flew to the top, they have returned to the middle. Besides Michigan fans, who is most regretful that Les Miles didn’t take the head coaching job for the Wolverines? Les Miles.

Irrelevant

6. Tennessee
7. Auburn
8. Kentucky
9. South Carolina
10. Vanderbilt
11. Mississippi State
12. Arkansas

Others

While no team outside of the 5 BCS conferences (ouch… another stab at the Big Least) stands a shot at winning the BCS Championship, there are some teams that have shown their ability to run the table and knock of some big opponents.

Wanna Be Relevant

1. Utah – Playing the Mountain West, they will tackle in conference opponents of BYU and TCU. All three of these teams are good enough to be in any of the major conferences. Utah has a chance to tackle Oregon in an early out of conference battle, something that could give the Utes some national respect, but when the rest of your season features schools that should be considering moves to 1AA, it is hard to see how even another undefeated season will land the Utes in anything more than a BCS Bowl.

2. TCU – Like their conference foe Utah, TCU will contend for the Mountain West conference championship. However, their schedule is even lighter in that their out of conference opponents are mediocre at best. Like Utah, they play for a prize of a BCS birth on 11/14 when they host the Utes.

3. Boise State – If they beat Oregon in their first game (on the Blue Turf) then there really is no reason that they shouldn’t go undefeated. But there just doesn’t seem to be the magic that we saw in this team a few years back and if Utah and/or TCU are also undefeated, then there is no shot of a BCS bid.

4. Notre Dame – What a shame that we actually have to discuss this team. They stink. But they have the largest fan base in the country, get tons of love from the media, and have a Homer Simpson look-a-like for a coach. Oh yeah, they also have a schedule that should result in 10-2 if they suffer a let-down. If they don’t, then the Irish will finish 11-1 (only getting stomped by USC), and just may land themselves in a BCS Bowl which unless they are lucky enough to get the Big East champion will certainly result in another Bowl embarrassment.

So finally, if sports betting were legal in Delaware, we would ruin all the excitement and tell you exactly who would win the big games and what would happen, because it just seems way too predictable.  Oh well. It looks like you will have to watch and find out for yourself!