30K New Troops to Afghanistan
The Presidant gave a speech this evening to West Point cadets. The strategy is the surge part deux. 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan to stabilize the situation and support the shitty government there. Then start pulling the troops out in 18 months. Many soldiers will miss only a single Christmas.
As much as I have watched, the people that I usually agree with have decried the plan as awful. John McCain liked everthing except the withdrawal. Whatever.
This is a tough situation that the President has found himself in. But I think it has some merit and that Obama has some advantages over others in similar situations.
- Vietnam – Obama is right, we were not attacked by Vietnam, we did not have a populace that was largely on our side and we didn’t have much of a freaking goal, for that matter.
- The Soviets – They were there to add Afghanistan to their bloc. They would have run it just like they ran Poland and Ukraine. Here’s your dictator, and he will do what we tell him to do. America doesn’t want to take over Afghanistan, we want it to to be less of a shitty place, but we will leave as soon as possible.
- George W. Bush – If you are a muslim that didn’t want to kill Americans, George Bush could make you reconsider. He might not have wanted to take over Afghanistan, but I think he believed that they could all use a good dose of the good word. More importantly, that is the message that the man on the street in Afghanistan got from the missionaries that flocked to Afghanistan after the invasion. In Bush’s defense, I think he really believes that he had their best interests at heart, but no Muslim wants to have to hear about the inferiority of their religion from someone coming to help them. Obama physically looks more like them, he has a name that rings familiar with them, and he doesn’t say things like “we are on a crusade” and call these lunatics “jihadists.”
The key to “winning” in Afghanistan has ALWAYS been to win over the hearts and minds. Not to love the US, but to not fear the US long enough to spend the blood, money and sweat required to make the place work. I doubt that Karzai is the guy to do it, lord knows that he is as crooked as the day is long, but they elected the guy (more or less). We don’t have much choice in who we deal with. Shit, if Marion Barry can still get elected in DC, who are we to judge?
I have no idea if it will work. But I believe that if we do fail there, we know what the Taliban is capable of. They tortured women, gays, children and ruled by a fear that is right up there with the worst of the 20th century. They can not be allowed to regain control of that country. And maybe, just maybe, we can lay the groundwork in Afghanistan that the behavior of the Taliban is not tolerated. There were certainly Nazi’s in Germany in 1950, but each time one of them raised their heads, they were punished swiftly and severely. Perhaps Afghanistan can get this level of control with a stable government and a strong society. I don’t know, but I think that if anyone can pull this off, this is the man and this is the time.
Tags: Afghanistan, Obama Administration, War
Great post, lg.
I’m sorry, but there is just so much wishful thinking in this post. Do the Afghans know that our hearts are more pure than the Soviets? Do they know that Obama’s heart is more pure than Bush’s? Do they care?
I doubt it. Occupied people know that they are being occupied and they know that the hearts of people who killed their brother, or father or child are not pure.
Geek, why do you seek to impose our Western (Christian) values on the Afghan people? If they want to murder girls for going to school, is it any of our business? You imperialist!
Right G. Let’s all just pretend that the past 8 years never happened and we are the good guys again. That’s a plan.
sadly, right wing religious extremists in this country sell and rape young girls… why dont we bomb Utah?
Because Congress is full of Mormons. And if Congress was full of Afghanis, we probably wouldn’t bomb there, either. Clout. 😉
LG,
I just watched the news. You know who likes this plan? Everybody who was dead wrong about everything for the past eight years. That’s who. Everybody who (had they any sense of shame) would never ever be seen in public again.
This is a very good post, LG and I wish I was as sanguine.
There is something to be said for finally having a plan and a plan that has goals and a way out. In that we are many steps ahead of where we were.
But I still don’t know why we have to do this and why we have to pay for it. I think that Obama wants us to know that BushCo screwed this up even worse than Iraq and we have to stabilize it some before going. I understand that, but I also don’t buy it. The Taliban was a problem because they were hot-housing al-Queda. They aren’t doing that now, but working on a civil war. Civil wars we should step away from. Pakistan is still the longer-term problem. Not that I think we should invade there, either.
a few things about this speech.
When he addressed the “pull out now” crowd, or any other opposing viewpoints, i was impressed. it was something that Bush NEVER did.
At the risk of sounding like a repuke… and jason and cass, i fully expect you guys to jump on me….. we don’t know what Obama and the generals know. Im willing to grant him the benefit of the doubt in that i voted for Obama because i trusted him….. hard as it may be it admit, he is keeping a campaign promise with this escalation. The speech made sence. We cant deny that there are organizations that want to destroy and kill us. WE may have created and helped their numbers under Bush, but if they exists we need to kill them, or change their minds, or something. If Al queda gets to Pakistan and their nukes………
I was ready to be against whatever Obama proposed. The speech changed my mind. Im am skeptical about this, but i will give it a shot. I dont think one more American life is worth building a doomed government in Afghanistan. The president’s brother sells heroine which finds terrorism. But we need to keep us safe, and if this is the only way…. it is the only way.
It is what we needed to do. I have reservations which I detailed at DP, but I support the President and will trust that he is right. He has access to a lot more information than do I. I basically agree with LG.
Jason, they have already figured out that we are not like the Soviets. The two sides that were supportive of our involvement received around 90% of the vote in the elections. The majority of the country is calm. The population is very well armed, but they are not attacking us even in the “hot areas”. The people may be uneducated, but they have common sense. They did not survive in that inhospitiable area by being stupid.
The Taliban is not just our enemy but theirs. We make a mistake if we do not actively protect the populations from them.
It is not a civil war at this point; the Taliban is no longer powerful enough to wage a full fledged Civil War as they have for 25 years.
wow i agree slightly with republican david…… *books ski trip in hell*
Don’t worry AP, it is just as painful for me to defend LG and President Obama. I think we all want to go home, but we can’t yet. I can see the gravity in the President’s face. He is not doing this for political reasons. He is as serious as I have ever seen him. If he can go beyond politics, so can I. We are all in this together.
This is just foolish. You don’t win hearts and minds of people by killing them. You win them by providing food, aid, and education. We could “win” in Afghanistan if we spent the money on books and healthcare, not bombs and bullets. And it would cost a lot less.
“When will we ever learn?”
No, A1, you can win hearts and minds by protecting the good guys from the bad guys. I’m not convinced that we will be successful, but this gives us a chance. We are down by a touchdown and we have to try our 2 minute drill. And honestly, Obama is the guy I want to give the ball to in this situation.
We could “win” in Afghanistan if we spent the money on books and healthcare, not bombs and bullets.
Books and healthcare are needed of course but what we really need to do is restore agriculture to something other than opium. That means providing a whole farm economy including finance, technology, reliable marketplaces, and secure transportation. Political stability in Afghanistan requires a restoration of traditional agriculture.
I am still waiting for Obama and his Generals to define what Victory is. I am afraid when 2011 rolls around we are going to here those famous words that we heard all during the Iraq war except the word Iraq will be replaced by AFGAN
” WE WILL BRING OUR TROOPS HOME WHEN THE AFGAN’S STAND UP BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET”
Oh and for those of you playing along at home, Me and RD agreeing is actually one of the signs of the apocalypse.
Liberal Geek,
I think (as you point out in your assessment of Karzai) it might be hard to tell the good guys from the bad,so we may be able to throw a group out without assurances the replacements will be much better.
This surge sounds somewhat familiar. Lots of time limited troops? Didn’t Bush try that in Iraq? The Mujahadeen fought years against the Soviets,they can sit low for 18 months and then come back. I think they are in it for a generational fight,to be passed on to children and grandchildren ,if need be. Is the US ready for that time commitment?
I like Obama,but fear he will end up in an inherited quagmire,like happened to LBJ.
I thought I felt the earth move, LG.
Here’s the difference, JT. I think you can inoculate the country against the Taliban. I think it is possible that we can make their return less likely if we can show that a shitty democracy is better that a shitty theocracy.
Personally, I feel like I helped fight that same battle for 4 years.
It is as President Clinton said. Afghanistan is unknowable. NOBODY knows what the right thing to do is. There are no good choices. By defining our very modest goals and setting an exit strategy I think Obama has at least taken a step toward extricating America from that part of the world. He is right about the cancer growing across the boarder with Pakistan and he is certainly right about Pakistan having nuclear weapons. As much as I resent any further loss of American lives or treasure in those mountains, I also recognize that instability there leaves us vulnerable to attack. Not by some imagined WMD’s but by actual, verified, nuclear weapons.
One thing he talked about last night was getting more help from our allies. We are not the only nation under threat from these extremists. Any place in Western Europe or the Middle East, not to mention India, could wake up and find themselves in the cross-hairs of these religious fanatics. It doesn’t take much to piss them off. England has been our staunchest ally in all this but Brown is facing a tough election in the spring. He may have no choice but to pull out. I’m hoping that Secretary Clinton has been successful in recruiting some help for us. The Taliban, AlQuida, whatever they call themselves, pose a worldwide threat and we shouldn’t have to go it alone.
So the threat is real, it is worldwide, America needs help and can’t go it alone. Those are major changes from the past administration’s strategy. This is vastly different from our empire-building war in VietNam. Who the heck would want to add Afghanistan to their empire given its history? It would be like having that drunken, obnoxious uncle at the Thanksgiving table. Only, he’s carrying a loaded gun.
Obama inherited this but he promised during his campaign that he would face it and take the necessary steps. He’s taking them. I support him. Not only because he’s our president, but because I believe he’s making the best of a terrible, no-good, horrible situation.
Good post LG.
Thanks for supporting your president David. We’ll see if any other Republicans step up and have the political will to do the same. I doubt it, but we can only hope.
“If he can go beyond politics, so can I. We are all in this together.” very decent of you RD.
I wonder if Fixed news will do the same, or decide to tear this plan apart and turn their viewers against it. Last night i saw o’reily sort of defending the strategy against Karl Rove. He didn’t call him a lair, or remind him afghanistan was bush’s fault, or ask him why the former v.p accused obama of treason, but progress is progress. Lets see how long capt’ murdoch lets it continue.
I heard the president set out goals and timetables which I think is essential. I heard the president say he still thinks Afghanistan is winnable.
I agree with LG that there has to be safety for the people there before we can even address schools. Girls and boys have to be able to go to school without fear of attack. If we leave a power vacuum, Afghanistan will just go back to being an unstable warlord state and it will also destabilize Pakistan. I heard the president talk about reality though. We can’t remotely run another country and there won’t be peace unless people there are committed to peace. I think that’s why benchmarks and timetables are important. If there is progress then we’ll probably stay longer. If it doesn’t look like anything’s changed in 18 months, we’ll begin an exit strategy.
I agree with Jason. This is a neocon victory.
Since many here surely validate the source, this graph says it all :
http://msnbcmedia1.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/091201_afghantrooplevelchart.hlarge.jpg
This president just can’t seem to get enough of advancing the forces of crony corporatism and neocon militarism but, worse, by a withering default that only makes his spinelessness all too apparent.
All this “stand by our president” rubbish is pretty wretch-inducing coming from anyone here but David A.
If anyone believes that Obama is going to so easily reverse the machinery of war 18 months from now, without actually exercising the stones of which he showed absolutely none last night, they are seriously deluding themselves.
I wonder who will be the last soldier to die for Obama’s war…Obama’s mistake.
Maybe “stones” are not what we need to win a war of this kind. We arent fighting a country, we are fighting an idea. You need brains to win a fight like this and Bush had none… just kep whippin’ it out and send more troops and killing more civilians. Obama on the other hand clearly has the brain to not brazenly send more and more might.
I heard very valid reasons why more troop are needed. Mostly because when the war was going well, Bush and Dick surrendered. thats right. They left the war before it was won and just things get SO bad there is no choice now but to … dare i say surge. I dont want to be in Afghanistan either, but i REALLY dont want the Taliban to get Pakistan’s nukes… and regardless of whatever talk show host you may worship, i doubt you want that to happen either… unless it is so you can use it for political gains…rush limbaugh.
The most impressive part of the speech was when he touched on other viewpoints. WIth BushDick it was as if different ideas didnt exist. IT was refreshing to hear WHY knee jerk ending of the war is wrong…
Be against this decision because oyu hate war, or because you hate whatever obama does, but dont pretend there is no strategy or clear set goals.
No. “Stones” are what is need to END this war.
‘needed’
How very phallic-centric.
Actually it’s teste-centric, I believe.
🙂 (That one’s for you, pandora).
Oh my, is that an… emoticon? I love it when you embrace your feminine side.
Might shock you, but I found myself 80-90% in agreement with BO on this one.
But you will criticize him anyway, right? Of course you will.
I may criticize around the edges — I’d argue the numbers are a little low and the timelines are a little short — but essentially support the policy he announced, though not some elements of his rationale for that policy.
Famous Taliban saying ” You have all the watches we have all the Time”
can you site that? or re you just going to keep spewing nonsequitors
If a citation for the quote for the 3:27 pm comment by truth teller is what was requested I found this:
What the White House says—or doesn’t say—about a long-term commitment is hugely important. Americans are famously impatient, and there is cruel wisdom in the oft-quoted Taliban boast that “NATO has all the watches, but we have all the time.” Most Afghans are sitting on the fence, waiting to see who wins. Our allies are nervously looking for the exits, and the Pakistanis and the Iranians are hedging their bets in case the U.S. decides to pull the plug.
OCTOBER 26, 2009, JAMES SHINN -Wall Street Journal online
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704335904574497120548934550.html