Comments on: Moderates Need Not Apply

By: Delaware Dem

Delaware Dem — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:50:44 +0000

DC, you’re the idiot. The base of the Republican Party caused Dede to drop out because she was too moderate for their taste, so they voted for the Conservative candidate, who is a Republican. So, the Republican lost that race twice.

By: Brooke

Brooke — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:49:46 +0000

So your premise is the Republican dropped out of the race and… won?

By: D.C.

D.C. — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:47:14 +0000

“Not to split hairs, but Republicans lost NY-23, but in Republican Land that doesn’t count.”

Your stupidity is unreal. The “REPUBLICAN” dropped out of the race you dope!

By: Brooke

Brooke — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:32:59 +0000

Me ouch? Did I ouch again? Oh dear.

By: Rebecca

Rebecca — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:31:34 +0000

Ouch!

By: Brooke

Brooke — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:04:15 +0000

My late husband did these numbers, in Florida, pre-internet. When we see them we may have an idea of what we’re actually up against. Until then, we’re talking through our hats. Thanks for the links.

By: Rebecca

Rebecca — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:00:24 +0000

What U.I. said. FiveThirtyEight is a trove of wonkery.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

By: Unstable Isotope

Unstable Isotope — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:57:40 +0000

Also keep checking FiveThirtyEight.com and Pollster.com. They live for this kind of wonky numbers analysis.

By: Rebecca

Rebecca — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:52:10 +0000

Brooke,

For raw numbers go to the Virginia Board of Elections website at:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/Index.html

I’m guessing some wonky website is crunching the numbers now, or will be in the next week or so when the VBE has final counts. I’d be surprised if DailyKos doesn’t have a post on this soon.

By: Brooke

Brooke — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:27:29 +0000

I’m only finding comparisons to 2008. I’m looking for that last, which was 2005, I think.

By: pandora

pandora — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:27:21 +0000

Truthfully… If I lived in Virginia I’m not sure I could have pulled the lever for Deeds. His statement on not supporting HCR infuriated me, and I won’t vote for a Dem who runs on a Republican platform.

By: Unstable Isotope

Unstable Isotope — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:13:24 +0000

I’ll have to find links (no time right now) but IIRC, the %African Americans who voted in VA dropped from 20% to 15% and the under-30s dropped from 15% to 10%. (Don’t quote me on these)

Brooke – I would Google on Exit Polls Virginia, you’ll probably find the data there.

By: Brooke

Brooke — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:01:36 +0000

Rebecca, I’ve been looking, but not finding, maybe you can help me. How did D turnout in Virginia compare with the last off year election? Or in NJ, but that’s a little different, IMO.

GOTV in the general came straight out of OfA…. which I considered embarrassing, but at least it was effective. I think the new OFA is good, too, but I worry that the party hasn’t integrated it very well yet. If we can’t get turnout from new voters without a draw top of ticket, we WILL have trouble.

By: cassandra m

cassandra m — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:56:27 +0000

Obama can’t just hand over his voters to other candidates — those candidates have to understand what the Obama coalition looks like and work at reaching that coalition. Deeds was Exhibit A for not reaching out to any of Obama’s voters really and Corzine didn’t get Obama’s younger voters and independents, I think. Plus, the analysis from Kos you posted yesterday, Rebecca seems really on target — Dems haven’t given Dems much to be eager to go out to vote for in the first place.

By: anon

anon — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:42:50 +0000

The commenters who say the NJ/VA elections are an Obama repudiation are missing the point.

Obama’s legendary crowd turnouts during the 2008 campaign didn’t convince more people to vote for him, it just energized them to actually vote on Election Day. The people in those crowds were already natural Obama voters but they needed a push to get to the polls.

So Obama’s campaigning for Corzine or Deeds in the last few weeks was always going to be too little, too late. He needed to start sooner and lay out for the lazy Dem voters exactly what the stakes were, and he didn’t do that. Hey, that wasn’t really his job anyway, Obama has enough to do.