Call It! Predictions of Nov 2 Elections (Weekend Practice Run)

October 31st, 2009 • Related • Filed Under
By cassandra_m

So next Tuesday there are multiple off-year elections that people are watching.   We’re launching this thread early so you can spend the weekend debating and working out your selections of the outcomes of Tuesday’s races.  On Monday AM we’ll put up another thread where you can make your FINAL predictions complete with winning spreads.  Whoever gets the most wins correct, with the closest guess to the winning spread and closest guess to the Bonus Question wins a delightful prize.  So tell us what you think about the winners (or winning conditions) for these races:

New Jersey Governor

  • Jon Corzine -D
  • Chris Christie – R
  • Chris Daggett – I

Virgina Governor

  • Creigh Deeds -D
  • Bob McDonnell -R

NY-23 House of Representatives

  • Doug Hoffman – C
  • Bill Owens – D
  • Dede Scozzofava -R

Bonus Question!

Tell us the most brain-dead narrative the media will settle on to find larger meaning in these off year races.  And since they’ve been doing this since summer — the option of a narrative that these races are a referendum on Obama’s policies is off of the table.

There Are 41 Responses So Far. »

  1. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 9:19 am:

    The media can only deal with on brain-dead narrative to find larger meaning in election results at a time. Ergo, the narrative that these races are a referendum on Obama’s policies will be the narrative.

  2. Comment by pandora on 31 October 2009 at 9:48 am:

    Jason’s correct, and the focus will be on Virginia – which McDonnell was always going to win. Not that that will matter. Nor will it matter that Deeds ran to the right on health care and alienated Dems.

    Nope, the talk will be: Is Virginia turning Red again?

    I expect Corzine squeaks it out in NJ. And the NY-23 is anybody’s guess. It should have been a safe R seat. Whatever the outcome there, expect Hoffman and pals to play it as a massive win… which will be a new shiny object for the media to latch onto.

  3. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 10:00 am:

    Peter Beinart at the Daily Beast has an interesting take on the media narrative and just how meaningless these elections are as any kind of predictor . . .

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-10-30/why-the-democrats-should-lose/?cid=hp:beastoriginalsR4

  4. Comment by cassandra_m on 31 October 2009 at 10:52 am:

    Beinart is basically right — and if you imagine that Delaware had a governor’s race right now, the candidates would be working on issues that mean something to Delawareans. Neither of the governor’s races are nationalized to any great extent, and if NY-23 stays in R hands, that continues a more than 100 yr tradition for them. In NY-23 though, what has been nationalized is the Republican Party in-fighting over direction. And I forgot to add the NYC Mayor’s race which will very likely keep Bloomberg in the seat — which doesn’t add much to the narrative, either.

  5. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 11:20 am:

    Scozzafaza just dropped out of the race in NY-23! Interesting.

  6. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 11:23 am:

    You beat me to it. The Repubs must have promised her something.

  7. Comment by Brooke on 31 October 2009 at 11:23 am:

    http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091031/NEWS09/910319997

    And Biden’s due in on Monday.

  8. Comment by MJ on 31 October 2009 at 11:31 am:

    Scozzafaza’s dropping out means little, as she’s still on the ballot and her supporters probably won’t vote for Hoffman. They might just sit out, which still could throw the race to Owens.

    Deeds has run one of the worst campaigns for VA governor since Mary Sue Terry. No focus and too negative. He actually deserves to lose.

    Corzine will eke out a win in NJ.

    No one cares about Bloomberg. It’s all about ego for him.

  9. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 11:48 am:

    I think this is good news for Owens. Not a walk-over by any means and a lot is going to depend on whether the D’s in the district get off their butts and show up on Tuesday. We’re not so good at that. But the Dems do have a GOTV organization and I’m wondering if Hoffman’s Conservatives can match it. I guess a lot will depend on whether the Republican Party decides to throw their machine behind Hoffman, and how quickly they can scramble the data for him. It’s late to be changing horses. The moderates in the Republican Party, if there are any left, are going to fold up and go home. All they will be left with are the tea-baggers who haven’t already jumped ship.

    If I was a party operative for the Republicans in NY-23 I would be plenty sick today. This is a serious FAIL.

  10. Comment by Brooke on 31 October 2009 at 12:11 pm:

    Brain dead narrative, I predict at least one major magazine cover story titled “The Rise of the Citizen Activist”.

    Remember, you heard it from me, first.

  11. Comment by Unstable Isotope on 31 October 2009 at 12:16 pm:

    I think Owens will win in NY-23. The teabaggers will claim it’s a victory for them.

    I think Corzine will eke out a win in NJ. The teabaggers will claim it’s a victory for them.

    McDonnell will win handily in VA. The teabaggers will claim it’s a victory for them.

  12. Comment by nemski on 31 October 2009 at 12:17 pm:

    What about the Maine ballot question?

  13. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 12:32 pm:

    The teabaggers will claim it’s a victory for them.

  14. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 12:57 pm:

    Karl Rove has already distributed the election results talking points. In Thursday’s Wall Street Journal Rove presented the GOP faithful with a primer on how to spin the results of the Virginia, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania elections.

    According to Rove, “Voters have lived under Democratic rule for nine months, and many of them, especially independents, don’t like what they are seeing. Tuesday’s election provide the most tangible evidence of how strong a backlash is building – and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way.”

    Expect that exact wording to be broadcast no matter what happens. Notice also, how his message (as usual) is meant for “frightened centrist Democrats.” Sickening that idiots like Tom Carper will take this shit at face value.

  15. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 1:17 pm:

    Can’t wait to hear George Snuffalumpagus and David Whosis telling us how the NY-23 situation is a big win for the Republicans tomorrow. Earth to pundits — you’ve got 12 more months to orbit and then you’ll be embarrassingly wrong AGAIN! Except you don’t have an embarrassment organ.

  16. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 1:18 pm:

    What is David’s last name? I keep wanting to call him David Snow because he reminds me so much of Bush’s late press secretary.

  17. Comment by lizard on 31 October 2009 at 2:16 pm:

    Christie, Hoffman, McDonnel

    Corzine campaign staffer arrested on drug charges
    NY POst ^ | 10.31.09

    An official with New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s re-election campaign was arrested last night after cops found found ecstasy tablets wrapped and ready to be sold in his car, police said.

    Jason Shih, 25, was pulled over by East Rutherford cops at about 11:30 p.m. last night because he was talking on his cell phone on Route 17, said Lt. Chris Conforti of the East Rutherford police.

    Officers wound up finding 19 “blue star” ecstasy tablets in Shih’s car, each wrapped in its own little plastic bag.

    {flash back: By signing a revised law, Gov. Jon Corzine is authorizing cops to pull over motorists spotted holding and talking on a cell phone or text messaging on one. Before, drivers could be ticketed for those actions only if they were pulled over for another motor vehicle offense.}

  18. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 2:21 pm:

    Say it with gusto Lizard, “Tuesday’s election provide the most tangible evidence of how strong a backlash is building!!”

    Yell it from the roof tops. Let the Eagle soar.

  19. Comment by lizard on 31 October 2009 at 2:22 pm:

    that works for me.

  20. Comment by jason330 on 31 October 2009 at 2:27 pm:

    It is a warped kind of honesty, but at least you admit that your reaction to the elections is in no way dependent on the outcome.

  21. Comment by Republican David on 31 October 2009 at 2:38 pm:

    Predicting McDonnell would be a boring one so I will predict a GOP sweep from governor to all statewide offices to the state senate flipping to Republican for a complete control of state government. Yes, Virginia will be Republican again.

    In New Jersey, I predict Daggett will get less than 10% of the vote and Christie will win. The race really is too close to call, but no guts no glory.

    NY 23 is too dynamic. I agree with Jason. We don’t know where Dede the commie lib’s supporters will go. She did not endorse anyone. My guess is the hard core Republicans will go with the Republican/Conservative Hoffman. Some of the hardcore Dede voters will vote for her anyway. Some will vote for Owens out of anger. Others will stay home. It is too late to get effective polling on the last two. I do not see it as a slam dunk for Hoffman. I thought he had it won when they pulled the ads, but this adds an unpredictable element.

    Hoffman was going to win before, My prediction is that the race will be decided by 2 points either way. Hoffman is scoring big with independents and pulling Republicans. I will go with him.

    If Corzine holds NJ, the narrative will be that Obama saved him (likely true), and that democrats that distance themselves from him are worse off than Democrats who embrace him.

    If the election goes the way that I feel it will, expect Rove’s talking points to become the conventional wisdom.

  22. Comment by Republican David on 31 October 2009 at 2:41 pm:

    New Jersey Governor

    Jon Corzine -D 45
    Chris Christie – R 47
    Chris Daggett – I 8
    Virgina Governor

    Creigh Deeds -D 43
    Bob McDonnell -R 57

    NY-23 House of Representatives

    Doug Hoffman – C 45
    Bill Owens – D 44
    Dede Scozzofava -R 11

  23. Comment by John Manifold on 31 October 2009 at 2:46 pm:

    I predict diarrhea in the pulpits:

    http://networkedblogs.com/p16232674

  24. Comment by Unstable Isotope on 31 October 2009 at 4:42 pm:

    The Independence Party is now backing Owens in NY-23.

  25. Comment by Rebecca on 31 October 2009 at 5:09 pm:

    I read somewhere today that the U.S. Justice Dept. is going to be paying special attention to the NY-23 race on Tuesday. If true, that will help derail Rove’s favorite winning strategy of vote fixing. Ugh, I just got sucked into talking about Rove, sorry.

  26. Comment by Republican David on 31 October 2009 at 11:14 pm:

    Rove never fixed anything. he just beat you guys like drums fairly and squarely.

  27. Comment by MJ on 1 November 2009 at 9:33 am:

    I see David is drinking and smoking that wacky weed again. David, you’re supposed to have candy on Halloween, not booze and drugs. Smarten up. Just say no!

  28. Comment by John Tobin on 1 November 2009 at 11:45 am:

    I think Corzine will win. He would have to lose significantly among Democrats (which I don’t think is likely) or lose probably 2-1 among others ( which I doubt as well). The Democratic registration edge is almost 1.8-1,according the New Jersey Secretary of State:

    “Secretary Wells announced that New Jersey has registered 5,224,880 voters for the general election. Of this number, 1,766,669 are registered Democrats; 1,061,899 are registered Republicans; 2,393679 choose unaffiliated as their party preference, and the remaining 2,633 registered under other parties.”

    http://www.nj.gov/state/elections/2009-pressreleases/p2009-103009.html

  29. Comment by Delaware Republican on 1 November 2009 at 1:34 pm:

    Corzine by 2 only because of better GOTV
    McDonell by 10
    Hoffman by 4

    Mike Prootack

  30. Comment by lizard on 1 November 2009 at 1:40 pm:

    sounds like the official position on the DL is:

    Republican wins prove the race was about local issues.
    Democrat wins prove the power and majesty of the Dear Leader.

  31. Comment by jason330 on 1 November 2009 at 1:44 pm:

    I am always amused when Republicans throw around the term “Dear Leader” without any sense of irony.

  32. Comment by lizard on 1 November 2009 at 1:59 pm:

    I keep searching for an Ironic font, but have had no luck… same for a Sarcastic font. the search continues.

  33. Comment by jason330 on 1 November 2009 at 2:33 pm:

    Try harder.

  34. Comment by Unstable Isotope on 1 November 2009 at 2:37 pm:

    The official DL position is that all politics are local.

  35. Comment by cassandra_m on 1 November 2009 at 3:59 pm:

    The amazing Mr. Liberal over at dKos has his analysis up of the NJ Governor’s race. This kid is like John Tobin’s younger brother or something.

  36. Comment by John Tobin on 1 November 2009 at 4:45 pm:

    Hey Cassandra,
    After looking at this guy’s analysis ,I take that as a high compliment. He is good. He breaks it down county by county and it looks like Corzine will eke it out.

  37. Comment by cassandra_m on 1 November 2009 at 10:04 pm:

    It was meant as a compliment, John. You’d never guess that this kid is in his first or second year of college — and he’s been doing this kind of breakdown for various races for years on dKos.

  38. Comment by Republican David on 1 November 2009 at 11:33 pm:

    John, I bet you guest post that Corzine loses.

  39. Comment by John Tobin on 2 November 2009 at 6:20 am:

    Hey Cassandra,
    I have not done in depth research on these two races (from CNN),but they look like they might be interesting races to follow from a social demographic standpoint:

    In Atlanta, Georgia, there are many candidates hoping to succeed two-term Mayor Shirley Franklin. The top three candidates include City Councilwoman Mary Norwood, City Council President Lisa Borders and former state lawmaker Kasim Reed.
    The southern city has a 35-year history of electing African-American mayors, but that could change this year if front-runner Mary Norwood, a white city councilwoman, is elected.

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/10/25/2009.mayors/index.html

    Margaret Chin stands 4 feet 11, but the veteran community activist is casting a long shadow over the political landscape in New York.
    Chin is poised to win election next month as the first Chinese-American on the New York City Council to represent New York’s Chinatown, one of the largest concentrations of Chinese outside of mainland China.

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/10/30/chinatown.candidate.chin/index.html

  40. Comment by John Tobin on 2 November 2009 at 6:38 am:

    Hey David,
    Guest posting? Is there a commission involved? Maybe this Corzine guy is not such a lock after all.
    If there is a commission, I am going for the Alexander Dumes,pere deal. He wrote Count of Monte Cristo and got paid by length (line or page,I can’t remember). The original was 1200 pages.

  41. Comment by lizard on 3 November 2009 at 12:19 am:

    I forgot the Corruption factor… Corzine will win with tens of thousands of fradulant absentee ballots.

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