To Run or Not To Run, That Is The Question
As Beau Biden, the State Attorney General, gets back to work after serving his country in Iraq, the Delaware Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party await Biden’s decision on whether he will throw his hat into the race for his father’s old Senate seat.
The Washington Post is the latest news outlet to chime in on our $64,000 question.
Trust me, he’s running is the message Democratic leaders are sending, even as the 40-year-old Biden bides his time. Last week, the vice president hinted to a crowd at a fundraiser in Missouri that his eldest son is in the race. And Bob Menendez, the New Jersey senator tasked with protecting the Democratic Senate majority, said in an interview that he expected Biden to run: “Now that he is back home, I’ll be reaching out to him and talking to him.”
Due to Biden’s name recognition and his supposed ability to raise funds, his decision is one that is eagerly awaited by many in the Delaware Democratic Party. It would be nice to see one or two viable candidates announce that they will be running for Senate and not wait while Biden hems and haws, if for nothing else to give Biden a run in the Democratic Primary.
Tags: Beau Biden, DE-Sen
Yeah, I think it would be nice to have a primary but I seriously doubt Beau is going to have a serious competitor – otherwise they would have announced by now I think.
I used to think similar thoughts about primaries when I was blogging. The fact is getting one viable candidate in a race is a triumph. For all the bluster by the tea party freaks on the right and the beard pulling concern about health care reform by liberals – most people simply don;t care about politics. The average person knows more about Marvel comics characters and their powers than they know members of congress.
That’s why the NJ and WDEL radio covers all politics as a long celebrity/personality story. There is no discussion of a Mike Castle’s conservative voting record (for example) because the market for that type of story does not exists.
Also – FWIW – Being the reverse barometer of Senate candidates, I will say conclusively that Beau Biden is NOT running.
I just noticed the poll. Good one. But if Joe Biden is our Polonius, that would make Beau our Laertes. Also – FWIW – Tom Carper is Iago.
It may not be good for the state party and I hate to think of the prospect of Castle becoming a Senator, but if I were advising Beau Biden, I would advise him to stay out of the race. Here’s why: If he lost to Castle, then his prospects of capturing the seat someday dim. Delaware voters don’t have a good record of rewarding losers of past elections. That’s why so few try to run again after they lose a statewide race. Also, and more importantly, Castle has one term as Senator in him at best. Biden could run the next time and win handily.
I think Castle is running purely for vanity purposes. He just wants to add US Senator to his wall of political-office trophies. He has no zeal for the office. This race is Castle’s ego at work.
I agree that Delaware does not have a tolerance for those who lose statewide races, however I don’t think that is a reason for Biden not to run. I believe Biden or any other viable Democratic candidate would give Castle a run for his money and probably run. By another viable Democratic candidate, I mean Lt. Gov. Matt Denn — there I said it.
Matt Denn could smack Castle’s weak shit away from the rim like LaBron James schooling Dwight Howard.
Maybe my political glasses aren’t strong enough, but if Denn announced, I think Biden would step aside, because a Denn-Biden primary would be an election Biden could lose.
As much as I like Denn, I think that he is enough of a company man to wait for Biden to make a decision. Denn would never have been invited into the incumbency party if others didn’t think that as well.
Matt Denn could smack Castle’s weak shit away
Yes but “Denn would never have been invited into the incumbency party” etc. etc.
Rule #1 of the Incumbency Party is Castle gets a free pass.
Yes. Most years. This Senate race is a bit different though. My strong sense is that the national politics of the US senate will swamp the Delaware way this year. I could be wrong of course. It depends on what side Carper chooses. Carper has said that he likes Castle and still not said whether he will support the Democrat.
If Dems are going to start making their case against Castle they had better start now.
Any substantive Dem campaign against Castle, even a totally clean and legitimate one, will be painted by Repubs and the News Journal as a negative attack on Castle, and they will probably play the victim card on the age issue. That is a hump that needs to be overcome by a clear and consistent message from all Delaware Dems “No, we are just politely pointing out his record…” And we will obviously have to do it without Carper and probably without Joe Biden’s assistance. Delaware Democrats’ credibility is weakened by the fact that many of them have supported Castle’s positions.
…Or November 10th. The fact that Bill Clinton is coming to Delaware says this race is going to be big. Clinton will no doubt pour withering fire onto the the “just say No” obstructionist Congressional Republicans. If he calls out Mike Castle by name and makes it clear (as only Bill Clinton can) that Castle is a part of that system – then it is on like Donkey Kong.
Castle might suffer brain vain pop number two just from the vibes emanating from the Chase Center and need to be medevaced from Beebe to Christiana hospital that very night.
It will be an interesting race that’s for sure.
And it’s Beau vs. Castle, Joe might have another aneurysm if he has to choose who to support. My bet is he claims a Rose Garden strategy and stays out.
…Or November 10th. The fact that Bill Clinton is coming to Delaware says this race is going to be big.
True dat. We will probably see Obama a few times too before this is over.
Biden is not as tight with Castle as Carper. Joe pulls out all the stops if Beau gets in. Then calls everyone he knows and gets their stops and pulls them out. Then he builds a time machine to get all past and future stops and pulls them out. No stop will be left unpulled.
Yes, this will be a big race. The fact that Clinton is coming here is a big indicator in my mind. I’m so glad I got tickets for the event!
No way anon@11:20 that VP Biden stays out of it. Do you remember that Kaufman was picked to hold the seat for Beau? He’s not holding the seat for Castle!
I think if Joe is highly visible the Repubs will get some traction on the “dynasty” issue.
Also, the Castle campaign right now is probably working hard to compose politely worded letters declining offers of support from unpopular national Republicans and telling them to stay the hell out of Delaware.
Maybe I will finally get my long-sought Octogenerian Trifecta photo of Castle, Pete du Pont, and McCain all on the same stage.
Unpopular National Republicans? That’s all of them right? Who could Castle get to come to Delaware that could possibly help him? Honesty, when the Republicans have their big dinner (for the 85 people who admit to being republicans in Conference Room B of the Dewey Beach Surf Club Hotel) who will give the keynote?
Glenn Beck?
Sarah Palin?
Tom Carper?
Do you remember that Kaufman was picked to hold the seat for Beau? He’s not holding the seat for Castle!
I didn’t say Joe wouldn’t quietly raise a whole bunch of money for Beau 🙂
There are more pictures of Bigfoot than pictures of Carper campaigning with Democrats.
Isn’t Joe still popular here? I’d bet he campaigns and I’d bet he’s champing at the bit to do it.
People who are going to be upset about the dynasty issue are going to be upset whether Joe is high or low profile – so he risks nothing by going high profile. There is only upside to Joe campaigning hard.
Bill Roth never got a free pass. Castle won’t get one either.
Bill Roth never got a free pass.
Carper broke the rules. Notice you also haven’t seen any Democrats campaigning for Carper.
Carper has been a team player for 30 years. He helped challengers to Wagner, DL Wms and Brady. He broke thumbs raising money for Cari DeSantis, Castle’s first challenger in ’94. Had there been candidates with her spunk and brains since – Dennis was the only one — he’d have helped them.
If you say so. But those examples are pretty old and weak compared to Carper’s support for Castle. There are more pictures of Carper and Castle together than of a newly married couple at their wedding.
And Carper has the problem, of course, that he can’t go after Castle even if he wanted to, because he often voted the same way.
Had there been candidates with her spunk and brains since
The fact that there were NOT is part of the free pass. What did Carper do to help with recruitment?
Carper doesn’t need other Democrats or the Democratic Party. I’ll be listening for his usual empty boilerplate about being a “recovering Governor” early in the program at the JJ dinner.
What did Carper do to help with recruitment?
Carper is big enough to take shots, and Jason, for example, gives them to him deservedly, but it’s beyond naive to blame TRC for the fact that there is just one clean shot at an incumbent Congressman: in the first run for reelection. Carper recruited an attractive candidate in DeSantis for that race. After a Congressman gets reelected, the subsequent reelection rate is well above 90 percent. Only with exceptional events – scandal, national wave, demographic change – does an incumbent lose.
Challenging a Congressman is no after-hours avocation. It means essentially abandoning all other efforts. Ask Tom Neuberger, Dennis Spivack, Joe Hoeffel, Harlan Williams or Bob Maxwell. You put your career on hold, essentially cut off all earned income, impair your family life, and get no national help unless polls convince PAC’s that you have a chance. After the announcement gala, you hear “no” more often than a door-to-door salesman. The task has become grimmer by the decade. Hundreds of Delawareans would love to serve in Congress. Dozens of them could do a good job. None of them could be convinced — not by Carper, Biden, Minner, du Pont or Castle — to take on a multi-term incumbent [except one with a personal scandal in ’82]. Who could blame them?
Here is the thing. Carper never scales back his campaign appearances with Castle during the races. I get that he does not want to spend political capital on extreme long shots, but the campaign season joint appearances with Castle spits in the faces of those people who do decide to represent the Democratic party in spite of the odds.
Carper and Castle arrived at a Jewish Community Center forum in the same car. WTF is that?
From an outsider’s perspective, Tom Carper did more for his party back in the ’80s than most politicians have ever done for theirs when he swept out the rotting remnants of the ancien regime in New Castle County. If your memory goes back that far, you know what I’m talking about. If it doesn’t, you can’t appreciate the risk involved in knowingly making an enemy of Dan Rappa.
I wonder how many voters knew which Joseph R Biden they were voting for in 06 and how many will know which JRB they are voting for in 10.
It’s a shame no progressive is stepping up to fill the vacume and announce his/her run for Senate.
First Jason, I gotta say that Senator Carper is generous with his time and money in support of down ticket Democratic candidates. He’ll go door knocking, just did in the 37th with Rob Robinson. He sends money. You may not agree with his Third Way approach as a legislator, but he is a strong team player within the party.
Next Dana, you talk about Castle’s ego and then try to make us believe he’ll retire after four years. Horse hockey. The man has shown an infinite capacity to sit around doing nothing except voting the party-line for term after term and that won’t change by elevating him to the Senate. He’ll sit there until they take him out feet first. And, as John Manifold notes, once he’s there he’s got a better than ninety percent chance of staying there. It won’t be easy for any Democrat to beat him in 2010 but it will be a whole lot harder to go after him in 2014.
Whoever runs against him next year will need all our support because if that seat flips it will stay flipped throughout the Obama administration and that’s one more vote for the Party of NO in the Senate. We’ve got to hold every seat and take a few more because the Republicans have made it very clear they are going to oppose us on every issue. They are not giving up on their class warfare and every chink we leave open gives them one more opportunity to bleed the nation white.
Onward!
Rebecca, Pretty good for a party functionary 🙂 I kid of course. I agree 100% about keeping the seat in Dem hands (although I’d love to hear Carper (or even Beau Biden)) express that sentiment. Thanks for the info about Carper’s down ticket activities. My attention has always been on him during quixotic house races.
Look, Tom Carper isn’t the party. Matt Denn isn’t the party. We HAVE a party, and I think it’s feeling its oats a little. If you talk to district committeepeople, what you hear is mostly, “We’re working for Democrats and we expect to see them working for us.”
I’ve seen Carper go door to door for local Dems. It wouldn’t be Delaware if we couldn’t ride share a little, that’s one of the nice things about it. But we are NOT facing an incumbent in the Senate race and we WILL keep the seat.
Because random citizens like I am say so.
Remember, We used to have Dixiecrats vs. Rockefeller wing R’s. The last 20 years has seen a grand reshuffle in what the parties stand for in Delaware, at least as much as in other parts of the country. It’s not surprising we still have kinks to work out.
I’d like to keep Ted Kaufman. I think he’s done a fine job. Not that he’s asked me. 😉
Hey Jason,
I’ve gotten involved in some of those quixotic house races and in retrospect I can’t say that was a good use of my time or treasure — except it was fun coming to your house for one of those fundraisers. I have to note here that you have always walked the walk, not just talked.
Still, ya can’t really blame Carper for sitting those quixotic races out. His time is well spent burning up a lot of shoe leather on behalf of our state and local candidates.
One thing about being a party functionary — occasionally you have an “AH HAH” moment when you realize there’s a reason for what gets done. And who does it.
Thanks for all you do Jason. I’ll proudly be your party functionary any time.
Onward!
Geezer, while I appreciate what Carper did in taking down the slimy Gene Reed (and I was involved in that effort and was a strong supporter of Carper at that time), in retrospect, he was just exchanging small-time construction trades dirty $$’s for big-time corporate dirty $$’s. The takedown of Reed was a message to the corrupt corporate interests to invest in the Democratic Party. That’s what Carper did, and does, stand for.
The James Cagney movie title says it all: “Never Steal Anything Small”.
Still, ya can’t really blame Carper for sitting those quixotic races out.
Why not? and, why are we running a bunch of Don Quixotes? He’s a former governor and a sitting US Senator, and he can’t convince anybody else to run against Castle? Somebody he could support?
Maybe that’s the problem – Carper can’t support anyone to the left of Castle.
Dems are spending their life savings and running shoestring campaigns to get Castle out of Washington. Sorry, Carper does NOT have our backs when it comes to Castle.
Where’s the post on Limbaugh getting punked on the Obama “thesis?”
Brooke is right. She understands how the process works because she serves on her District Committee.
anon of the windmills. You cannot hold a gun to somebody’s head and make them run for office. As John Manifold and others here have noted, a statewide run for office, especially federal office where the dollars are astronomical, is no small task to undertake.
And I’m sorry, but I’ve come to believe that anybody who thinks it is appropriate to start their political career with a run for the US House or Senate is delusional. Yes, we’ve had some very dedicated candidates who have used this as a platform for whatever special issue they support, but they always knew that was what they were doing. The newbies who actually thought starting at the top was an attainable goal were fooling themselves. And, encouraging a newbie is a serious business that asks for massive sacrifice with little to no hope of reward. My conscience won’t let me do it anymore. I ask and ask and ask of all of you and myself, but this is one instance where the “ask” is just too great.
So, think about what you are wishing on a fellow progressive when you pine for a new and improved candidate. This isn’t fun and games.
Exactly Rebecca. The only way to change the system is to work to change the system.
You cannot hold a gun to somebody’s head and make them run for office.
No, but you can hold out a bag of money and ask them nicely.
By the way – Thanks Rebecca, I think I may have finally found my blog handle…
anybody who thinks it is appropriate to start their political career with a run for the US House or Senate is delusional.
Plenty of delusional people on this list.
“in retrospect, he was just exchanging small-time construction trades dirty $$’s for big-time corporate dirty $$’s.”
El Som: Sadly, I think you have nailed it. At the time, I thought challenging those thugs took remarkable bravery, and surely marked Carper as a progressive, for who but a progressive would attack an established (if creakily operating) machine of his own party? Turns out it was the last progressive — or brave — thing he ever did. If I’m forgetting something, John Manifold can remind us (that’s a serious request, John, not snark).
Yep, Geezer. That’s one of the reasons I’m so relentless about Carper now. I was taken in by him when, in reality, he was nothing but a Tabula Rasa upon whom one could project their own hopes and ideals. Part of his evil genius.
anon, what were they doing BEFORE they became freshmen in the 1994 House? I can’t refute your claim that they all wandered off the street into Congress, don’t have the time to do the research, but your link doesn’t prove your point.
Anon of the Windmills – you are very welcome. I’m looking forward to reading your posts.
anon, what were they doing BEFORE they became freshmen in the 1994 House?
I just skimmed through and found a fair number of them that held no prior office. Some of them had high profile Republican mentors.
“In 1990, Frist met with former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker about the possibilities of public office. Baker advised him to pursue the Senate”
“[Ensign] became a successful businessman, opening a 24-hour animal hospital in Las Vegas. He owned two animal hospitals before entering politics.”
Coburn…. elected to House straight out of medical practice
“Despite having never run for office before, [Mark Sanford] finished second in a crowded primary… Sanford defeated Hipp in the runoff, and easily won the November general election.” (for the House).
That’s just based on some casual browsing, there are probably a lot more.
Sorry to put it this way Rebecca, but they also found local GOP committee members who had faith in them and didn’t think they were delusional. I didn’t research this, but you can bet the GOP elected officials stood behind these unknown challengers, unlike Carper.
Their base wanted better Republicans, and they found them (ick!) and didn’t give up on them. If we want better Democrats we need to do the same.
(At this time I have to confess to a bit of hypocrisy because I am not signed up for my local Dem committees, so take what I say with a grain of salt. Maybe I can be more involved when my kids are a bit older).
AOTW is a bit unwieldy, but maybe I’ll use it for a while.
anon, point made. I concede with one caveat — the Republicans can always raise truck loads of money, the Democrats not so much. We don’t have a bunch of rich people trying to buy the government like they do.
Everything I said changes when a candidate can walk in and self-finance to the tune of a million or so. Of course that doesn’t happen much in our party. Off hand the only ones I can think of are Gov. Markell who is proving he was the right guy, and Ned LaMont who at least focused us all on how awful Joe Lieberman really is. But these guys are rare. I don’t see Charlie Copeland having an epiphany and deciding that he’ll be a Democrat and work for equality and fairness in Delaware.
Agreed… and just remember my point was about Carper, not the local committees. When your challengers are not self-funded, support from your Dem incumbents is even more important (financial support as well as public endorsement). The local folks are doing all they can and more.
AOTW, the rigors of committeework aren’t all that, even for parents. I really encourage you to look up your group. Even if you can’t serve on the committee, the meetings are open, and you could come by when you liked. At the very least, you get an early peep at folks who WANT to run for office (and may be asking for endorsements) so you know more about who the people who show up on your ballots are.
In my experience, finding reasonable candidates is a very difficult job. I know some great human beings with awesome political POV’s who are simply MISERABLE candidates, or would, frankly, be awful for the job they want. Campaigning is a skill-set all its own, and requires a good understanding of the district and a huge amount of time (as well as money). If you hate selling pizza for the band, you will REALLY hate raising money to get an office. If your week makes getting to the laundry difficult, adding the responsibilities of an elected office (usually more than those of an old-style horse and buggy doctor) will be terrible. It’s a lot to ask of people.
In my experience, finding reasonable candidates is a very difficult job.
Would it maybe be a little easier if you were, say, a United States Senator?
And just to let you know, if I am elected to the Senate I will NOT be doing my own laundry 🙂
Planning to have a host of undocumented aliens do it for you? That’s the traditional solution, I believe. 😉
I had the unfortunate experience of spending some of my formative years in private schools. Modern American life being what it is, so did a lot of the people who might be picked, without prior political experience, to run for the Senate. Without that background, the people who might one day run for the US Senate generally start by running for dogcatcher, and work their way up. The district committees are the folks who recruit for dogcatcher, who work to be those infamous “delegates” to the conventions, and do the gruntwork in elections.
If Tom Carper knew the perfect person to run against Mike, he’d probably put a flea in his ear. I’m suspecting no one springs to mind. And if someone DID, maybe that wouldn’t be good, either, lol.
anon, (Not “of the Wind Mills” because I didn’t mean to sound condescending and I just realized that maybe I did.) Anyway, anon,
To amplify what Brooke is saying, at the local level — state rep, state senate, county council, city council, the people you call when you need help near home — the choice of the party’s candidate is made by the members of the District Committees who can actually vote for that candidate in the Primary or General Elections. And we would howl long and loud if somebody like Senator Carper tried to muscle in on this process. As you go higher up the ticket there is a tiered voting process. For example there are 22 District Committees in New Castle County. For a county-wide office each Committee gets one vote on the NCCo. Executive Committee. It takes 12 Districts voting for a candidate to be endorsed for a county-wide office.
For state-wide office, once again each District Committee gets to send one vote to the County Committee and the County gets to send a proportional vote (for New Castle it’s five votes, winner takes all) to the State Committee.
It’s all representative and proportional to the number of Democrats at each level.
All of this is probably more than you ever wanted to know, but the point is that the candidates start out wooing the District Committee members to get to the Party endorsement. I’m not saying that the more powerful elected Dems can’t influence the vote, of course they can. But, there is still a democratic process and it takes a bunch of work and time and persuasion. The choice flows up.
Sorry to ramble. Just thought you’d like to know.
Drat! I started out looking for a pumpkin soup recipe and was only going to lurk here for a few minutes. Anon, you reeled me in. Have a good Sunday afternoon.
Rebecca — Off topic.
If you haven’t already searched: http://www.epicurious.com/tools/searchresults?search=pumpkin+soup&x=0&y=0
The soup with cloves and honey sounds good to me…happy searching!
Thanks P.M. I’ll save this one for another time, the honey and cloves sound delish. I made one with mushrooms, homemade chix stock, marjoram and nutmeg. The marjoram and nutmeg are a wonderful combination.
mmmm-mmmm….much more savory!
Ok- back to the continuing saga of The Bidens, our regularly scheduled program…..
Late to the party, but couldn’t overlook this great line from Jason.
Castle might suffer brain vain pop number two just from the vibes emanating from the Chase Center and need to be medevaced from Beebe to Christiana hospital that very night.
Man, really? That’s the best you got? Going after someone’s health, and sounding gleeful about it (“brain vain pop”)? Geez.
Your welcome.
There should be more reason to vote for Joe 2.0 than “Biden’s name recognition and his supposed ability to raise funds”
Geezer: I appreciate the invitation, and if I didn’t have homework this Sunday night, with the Yankees-Angels in a tight one, I’d try to turn my late-afternoon thoughts on this topic into something intelligible. My thoughts are as expansive as Dale Scott’s strike zone, and I’ll need more time.
It’s actually you’re welcome <--- grammar snob
I used to like you. 🙂
Sad now. 🙁
I never remember the emmoticon.
It’s “emoticon.” One “m.”
Is spellcheck no longer required in the publishing industry? 😉
John Manifold wrote, “My thoughts are as expansive as Dale Scott’s strike zone…”
I LIKE that!
For what it’s worth de_editor say she/she/they saw Carper and Biden together at the Y, this morning. The plot thickens…