The Story Everyone is Missing
On the Al Mascitti Show this morning, Vince D’Anna clarifies the results of his poll:
Carney 30.5
Markell 14.6
Undecided 55%
That is the real story behind this poll. After eight years of service as Lt. Governor, as the heir apparent of the Democratic Party, John Carney only garners 30.5% of Democrats, with over two thirds of Democrats either supporting Markell or undecided. If Carney is such a shoo-in, if it is really his turn, if he is such the golden boy, then why is he stick in the low 30s?
Carney is basically an incumbent, as part of the Minner-Carney Administration. He has the establishment backing. A basic rule of thumb in polling is if an incumbent is below 50%, he or she is in serious trouble. Carney is at 30.5%! That tells me that two thirds of Democrats are not happy with the choice of Carney, and are either supporting Markell or unsure of or without enough knowledge about Markell to say that they are supporting him.
Ron Williams is lauding this poll as good news for Carney. It is not. It is horrible terrible devastating news for Carney.
So, is it a crappy poll or is it a great poll for Markell?
I think it is a flawed poll with a high MOE. BUT, if we are going to treat its results as news (as the NJ and Ron Williams do), then the news is not as good as the spin.
Interesting that you accuse the poll of fuzzy math, but then try to attach ‘incumbent’ to 8-year statewide officeholder Carney instead of 10-year statewide officeholder Markell.
Fuzzy math, indeed.
I believe the poll to hive a much higher MOE than even what they have provided, based on some of the other data that I have heard from the poll. My guess is that it was a drop-down box and the MOE didn’t have a number higher than 5%.
While those numbers are bad for two-time election winner Carney, they stink for three time election winner Markell as well.
The real story of the MOE is that the poll was of likely primary voters. Not only are “likely primary voters” more likely to lean toward the natural progression of officeholders (Lt Gov promoted to Gov.), but they wouldn’t take into account the I’s and R’s that swtiched parties to vote in the Dem Primary, approximately none of whom did so because they are excited by Carney.
Did Al ask D’Anna about his work for Carney?
No.
At least, not that I heard.
He told me the poll was for Gordon, and that he’s doing one for Hartley-Nagle. He has done work for Markell in the past, too, on his treasurer campaign.
I don’t think a pollster will be in the bag for a candidate who’s not paying for the poll — at least, not if he wants to get any more work.
Is this the poll that was done in June?
Yes.
If this is “horrible terrible devastating news” for Carney, what other adjectives should you add to that phrase to the candidate garnering LESS THAN FIFTEEN PERCENT of the vote? Unbelievable? Ridonkulous? (not a word)
Now i like Markell and i’ll probably vote for him, but count me as one of the pessimistic ones after seeing these numbers.
Well, first, and again, this poll is from June. And yes, if this poll is to be believed, then it is also not good news for Markell. But there is more upside for Markell in this poll than for Carney. For Carney is the incumbent. Markell is not.
And I do like the word Ridonkulous. I am using it from now on.
Yay i am teh contributed.
There are folks who claim that alot of Markell’s support comes from Rs who have contributed to him and have changed their registration to vote for him. If this is true (and I don’t know that it is), what does that mean for these numbers?
But 55% of likely D voters being undecided in a state with a long standing Democratic machine can’t be good news for that machine, either. And as pessimistic the Markell number might seem, 55% undecided primary Dem voters has got to look like a serious opportunity to a well-funded candidate.
The apathy in Delaware toward the gubernatorial election is renowned, so the 55% undecided is not surprising at all.
Look at the difficulty the Republicans had in fielding a candidate — they had to hogtie and drag him through the streets of Georgetown till he cried, “Uncle”.
I would disagree however that the undecided block is beneficial to Markell, since Americans in general vote for the devil they know opposed to the devil they don’t know.
Remember back in June, most Delawarians were wondering whehter they were going to take vacation this year or not. And, if they were even a bit political, they were following the Obama-Clinton fight. They were not worrying about a damn gubernatorial election.
Keep in mind, it’s only 41 percent undecided. Another 14 percent were capable only of distinguishing light from dark and responding to certain pain stimuli.
LOL. I didn’t hear that, and mistakenly assumed the remainder was undecided. Thanks.