Welcome a great new blog to the Delaware blogosphere
Check out Politics by the numbers (mostly delaware) by John Tobin, a very smart guy who has forgotten more about Delaware politics than I’ll ever know. His blog takes a “just the facts” approach and will be leaving the rumor mongery to people like me.
The purpose of this blog is took look at numbers that have an impact on politics. Some of these items are election results, campaign finance information, polling data and whatever numbers seem relevant.
The focus will mostly be Delaware, but numbers from other areas and national numbers may also be the focus.
Numbers in politics represent behavior, so the numbers may tells us something about how some people may be behaving. Of course the numbers will always be open to interpretation.
He is off to a flying start…
In his first post he crunches the numbers and concludes that the hated Harris McDowell probably would have retained his seat even if Potter had a clean head to head match-up in the last 1st SD primary.
If the same 2984 people voted and all the people who voted for someone other than McDowell voted for Potter, Potter would have won 1507-1477. To do this Potter would need to win all 255 nonMcDowell voters in the 4th & 6th Rep districts, voters in an area where McDowell beat Potter 971-359. If McDowell wins only 31 of those 255 voters (12% or 1 out of 8 voters) and turnout stays the same, McDowell wins. (snip)
It is possible that without Carroll and Hendrix the 18% gap between McDowell and Potter may have been larger.
It is possible that in a two way race Potter might have won,but he would need to have either massively energized turnout in the 1st or made massive inroads in the 4th & 6th Districts.
Read the whole thing. Bookmark the site and visit frequently.
Welcome John!! I love it that there will be a site like this one to rely on. The DE blogs getting a statistian is a boon.
I wonder what Potter’s henchpeople will come and say? The sorts of things that have been thrown at me in reference to this race?
Only Garrett would falsely claim that John is biased for pointing out a black person in his view in a “bad light”. Only Liz Allen would say that John is a biased McDowell stooge for pointing out the facts.
My point is that the folks who try to stay rational are often attacked in ridiculous ways and I sincerely wish that the blogosphere would weigh in more vigorously to shore up truth tellers. We need to be able to talk about election issues without fear of being labeled and libeled.
I loved it when Pandora calmly reminded Liz that she had several times asked her to stop saying that McDowell didn’t live in his Wilmington home since Pandora lives near him and can empiracally verify that he does live there.
McDowell is digging his own grave well enough without frivolous idiocracy coming into play.
Good points Nancy. Part of the thing that brings out the shrill around here is when I flip between objective fact and subjective opinion.
It will be nice for all of us to have this reliably objective resource.
John Tobin’s analysis is indeed a welcome addition to the blogosphere.
And I think his take on McDowell 2006 is accurate. However, while using that analysis as a tool in looking towards 2010, we also must factor in how the political landscape, particularly pertaining to McDowell, has changed.
While HBM ’06 had some limited vulnerability from those aware of his pushing through deregulation, I think it pales in comparison to his current weakness based on his blatant work on behalf of Delmarva and against Bluewater since.
He is now, in theory, much more vulnerable. However, he has always been fortunate in his ‘choice’ of opponents. I think he needs a one to one challenge from a very credible opponent (Tommywonk is my choice). The makeup of the district tends to favor a white challenger (the Wilmington portion of the district is the area around Sallies, 40 Acres, the Flats), although perhaps someone able to build a broad coalition, maybe Ted Blunt, could do it as well.
A fragmented primary, with several opponents, would redound to McDowell’s advantage. IMHO, that is what must be avoided at all costs.
Tommywonk !!!!
BRILLIANT! That would be awesome.
Also – Way to take John’s post and run with it. This is what blogging is all about.
(Tom now just needs to take you post and run with it…)
Tommy or Tyler!!!
Even a strong but unsuccessful primary challenge would be worthwhile, to smoke out the McDowell supporters and continue to expose the web of financial interests.
Anon is right — a good primary will deliver at least a bunch of useful info.
Welcome John Tobin and I’ll certainly be reading your site alot.
And The Management™ here needs to get him on the blogroll.