Too bad about Rudy…
He would have been the easiest to beat.
Next easiest …McCain.
Next easiest after that …Willard Romney.
All fairly easy for any of the Dems.
Bottom Line: No big deal in the big picture.
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Easy? Easier? Easiest?
A Democrat should interpret the results for you guys as –
Had a shot, Unlikely now, Doubtful we can compete
Florida is getting more and more out of play for the Democratic nominee, if that happens, it spells DEFEAT
one more thing, put the bong down
If McCain and Romney continue to insist on sticking Bush’s policies it is going to be a 50 state landslide. Particularly McCain.
If he wins the nomination he’ll have no choice bu to try and moderate his views on attacking all these random countries and having 100 year wars. OR – your party will not only lose the White House, but you’ll lose 70 or so seats in Congress and maybe 15 to 20 in the Senate.
Jason
Your talking issues.
If you haven’t noticed, this campaign has been anything but issues.
You should know that, your an Obama guy.
Michigan and Florida won’t forget the Democratic snub.
Lastly, I’m not convinced McCain won anything yet. I happen to agree with your breakdown above.
However, I don’t agree that anything will come easy for you guys.
No Florida = No Whitehouse (you can settle for Winehouse, Amy)
sorry the you’re are coming out your on my comments – autofill
McCain is actually the hardest RP to beat based on various polls. Independent voters like him and he gets some of the Anti-Hillary dems in a national race
Rudy – easiest. Hardly. He knows how to win against Democrats. He did that in NYC.
I concur with breakdown above. McCain might be the next easiest to win against. Romney also knows how to win against Dems.
…gonna be interesting….
I don’t think McCain’s endless war strategy will play very well in the general election. Likewise, Romney got elected in a blue state by supporting liberal social views. Now that he’s turned his back on them… what’s left of his mass appeal?
I actually agree with John F. So far the primaries haven’t been about the issues. But the general election will be. The problem for both sides now is that everyone seems to be in agreement. The Dems are all calling for a new health care system, pull-out of Iraq, etc. The Repubs are all for staying in Iraq, tax cuts, etc.
The differences within each party are very slight. What do they say: I like tax cuts more than you do?
Issues will return once each party picks its candidate, and the differences will be marked.
Don’t you guys see McCain as a kind of Bob Dole? His views are insane but he is almost backing into it based on being the guy who has been hangining around, standing in line the longest. I mean, if you put his words in Romney’s mouth (100 year occupation of Iraq, multiple wars, etc. ) he is DOA. Romney does not get a ticket out of Iowa with that crazy stuff.
I think the Republicans (at some level) must realize that they made a mistake in skipping over McCain for Bush so they are trying to make amends and winning in the general election is not a very big concern for the GOP’s primary voters.
I think after 8 years of Bush they have kind of wrtitten off the White House and just want someone who is not going to heap more shame on them.
Jason,
I completely agree. It’s funny, on my way home from dropping my kids off at school I thought the same thing. McCain is Bob Dole. Also, I took a walk on the dark side and tuned into Michael Smerconish. Facinating. Not one caller was happy about McCain winning Florida.
What the $@#$??
one more thing, put the bong down
from my cold dead hands!
I think McCain is a more formidable candidate than Romney b/c he is far more authentic than Robomitt. He actually believes what he says, and he would likely be able to attract moderates and independents, especially if Hillary is his opponent.
However, Jason’s Dole analogy is pretty apt even though McCain is not the ‘It’s his turn’ candidate that Dole was. It may not be fair, but he both looks old and sometimes sounds like he is not always in control of his faculties. Other times, he’s super sharp and super effective, but the contrast, especially with Obama, would be striking.
Plus, for those who say that Iraq is not the main issue, you could still have Obama, who opposed the war from the beginning, and McCain, who is on record as saying we should stay there for a hundred years. Guess which side the American public is on?
And, as for the economy, McCain’s quote about really not being an expert but he’s bought Greenspan’s book will be played over and over again by Clinton or Obama, and it will not resonate well with voters.
While I hope and pray that we don’t have Clinton Redux in the general election, I still think that either Obama or Clinton will be our next President.
McCain has been winning by winning independents. He’s yet to actually win a state’s self-identified Republicans.
His draw from Independents and his strength in Florida make him a tough general election matchup for anyone. Especially Obama.
He’s not my first choice (or my second, maybe not even my third), but he’d be tough to beat in the general.
Whistling past the graveyard.
A lot of concern trolling going on around here.
9ui11ani: would have been EMBARASSED during the national election process – Kerik, putting the anti-terrorism/emergency response unit inside the one place where terrorists attacked before (moron), fucking on the people’s dime, firefighters and other NYC public servants coming out of the woodwork slamming him as a glory seeker – saying he spent more time at Ground Zero than most rescue workers, but in reality he spend more time at Yankees playoff games than at GZ. We can keep going on here if you’d like…..
What you are seeing on the republican side is a total rejection of whatever goes for conservatism these days, since if they wanted 4 more years of Bu$hCo, they’d vote Guy Smiley. To them, McCain is the devil they know….
Can’t wait to see Obama standing next to McCain during a debate – I don’t think McCain can keep up – he’ll look stale, old and slow – Kennedy v Nixon all over again…
“Can’t wait to see Obama standing next to McCain during a debate – I don’t think McCain can keep up – he’ll look stale, old and slow – Kennedy v Nixon all over again…”
Or, maybe people will say “Look honey, someone who’s done a whole lot next to someone who ain’t done squat!”
Mark the time.
Romney is officially done.
It amazes me how so many Democrats have been pulling for McCain to win and then pay lip service saying that he would be a tough candidate.
FSP is right. McCain is not winning among GOPers because he really has very little in common with conservatives.
A moderate WILL NOT win this election. What will win this election is a candidate on either side who is ideologically strong enough to energize their base, but not quite polarizing enough to energize the base of the other party.
McCain certainly isn’t polarizing (at least not to Democats) but he cannot energize the conservative base. He WILL NOT be the next President. Mitt Romney can be polarizing, but free of the primaries, when he can stop overplaying to the base, he might be able to strike that need balance.
Hilliary is finished. She cannot win the general even if she takes the nomination. Most Republicans hate here and a good chunk of Dems do too.
Obama could win. He certainly is liberal enough to energize the base, but not quite polarizing enough to energize the GOP base against him. Probably because he has never actually done anything. Of course, I doubt by the end of a presidential term he will have accomplished anything either.
Sadly, that may be what America is looking for. A vacuous placeholder they know won’t do any good, but figure can’t do much harm either.
That is a fairly cogent take. The only match up I fear is Clinton Vs. McCain.
And my fear is based on what it would do to the country. To have these two keeping the politics of division going for another 8 years.
McCain is NOT a moderate by any stretch of the imagination. He has been fortunate to have gotten the press to continue to call him that (and the press LOVES McCain, so he has that formidable advantage), but his turn to pandering to the evangelical wingnuts and his essential endorsement of the BushCo foreign policy disaster is going to be excellent commercial fodder for a clever campaign.
All you rightist – better get your own house in order before you start pontificating. But what you’re saying, though, gives me (and most likely every lib reading this) the warm and fuzzies.
It’s not like you guys have been correct about pretty much ANYTHING over the past 10 years….
McCain is a straight talking Maverick!
Chris said: Sadly, that may be what America is looking for. A vacuous placeholder they know won’t do any good, but figure can’t do much harm either.
Isn’t this what the public thought in 2000?
don’t engage chris pandora. He is a troll and it won’t make a dent into his off base logic
Funny how they eat their own:
“McCain’s has little in common with conservatives”
I guess that due to his anti-torture and campaign reform stances….
Conservatives left McCain, not the other way around. And it shows all of us just how far right the GOP base has moved.
VC – with all due respect, wherever we are to the right of you would be considered far right
As far as eating there own…your last two VP candidates couldn’t last til Februar. Yet you wanted to shove these guys down our throat.
In typical “what have you done for me lately Democrat fashion” you kicked them to the curb.
I feel bad for Edwards, because I actually think he was your best candidate til you guys made him go so far left to compete you could not see him on the stage anymore.
eat their own? You guys created the saying
This is delightful.
Fox News went all in for America’s Playa and is paying the ratings price.
“He is a troll”
That is just DV’s way of saying I am a worthy opponent.
JF – with all due respect, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
I have a few latent old-style conservative qualities, such as the right to gun ownership (not assault weapons though), keep the government out of my bedroom stuff, and the former GOP mantra: Economic Constraint. But alas, the right can’t lay claim to these anymore (except the gun thing, but libs have pretty much given up on that issue).
Again:
Your party’s perception of McCain in 1998.
Your party’s perception of McCain in 2008.
Any difference?
I believe Edwards of 2008 would have been the nominee in 2004. Unfortunately, he ran against two juggernauts this time around.
BTW – Populism is not solely inherent to the left or right. So to say he ran a far left campaign since he had a populist message is just plain wrong.
“Conservatives left McCain, not the other way around. And it shows all of us just how far right the GOP base has moved.”
VC – Do you realize just how silly this is? Look at the front runners on the GOP side. McCain (so middle of the road he makes some Dems look conservative) and Mitt Romney who has had enough liberal opinions in the past that he actually was a Republican Governor is a very BLUE state.
So it is very hard to say the party is far to the right when the surviving candidates can practically touch the middle line, and in some cases have ventured over the line. No matter how foul the air is over there.
John Feroce: “Michigan and Florida won’t forget the Democratic snub.”
Right. It’s on the tip of every tongue in those states. And this is one of the young lions of the Republicans in Delaware. Can you say “Ding dong, the Delaware GOP is dead”?
Al — I heard several pundits last night say that the combination of Crist’s strength and the Democratic snub puts Florida in the “likely GOP” category.
Comment #15, 3rd paragraph. So, I don’t see how ‘silly’ it is…’cause it not.
If you can’t see who is voting for McCain – establishment Rethugs, military and right-leaning independents – then you really don’t know who is actually pulling your strings. The GOP base is going for Romney (Burris!) and the populist Theocrat Huckabee.
Guy Smiley has established himself as someone who will say anything to get a job (double Gitmo!, I’m really a christian!, etc…), so his bona fides (either way) are certainly in question…but the Mitt “Cult-of-Personality” is certainly attractive to many conservatives, which is why I think he’s doing well….
McCain is a conservative – not a moderate, not an Independent…say it with me…. A Conservative. His voting record says so….but to the people voting Mitt and Huck, not conservative enough…BTW, those two have more delegates, combined, than McCain.
…and your reading comprehension sucks, Chris.
Andrew Sullivan made a nice point on this today. How fucked up have we become that McCain isn’t considered conservative. Perhaps to the Romney/Huckbee supporters McCain’s not crazy enough, or jesus freaky enough, or disingenuous enough.
McCain’s so middle of the road it makes some Democrats look conservative? Really? Chris, if Barry Goldwater were still alive I think you would have just killed him.
“Your party’s perception of McCain in 1998.
Your party’s perception of McCain in 2008.”
VC – He was/is a senator in both cases. Let me explain –
Although I know he’s pissed off a lot of people, I also think that he suffers from the same Achilles heel affecting all senators since JFK ; in the end they all fall short of the Presidency.
This is why Romney and Giuliani got first looks, because people want managers/executives. That’s why Governors dominate. (Bush haters, save it, my point is who gets elected. Answer-Governors)
Romney as a former Governor and Businessman will give you guys a tougher race.
He never had to cross the aisle like a senator, which when it occurs, is unforgiven by both parties.
Obama and Clinton would have difficulty debating him.
John Feroce: “Michigan and Florida won’t forget the Democratic snub.”
Al Mascitti: “Right. It’s on the tip of every tongue in those states.”
Al
If you need glasses I can help you, but if you close your eyes there’s nothing I can do.
“And this is one of the young lions of the Republicans in Delaware. Can you say “Ding dong, the Delaware GOP is dead”?”
Whatever that means.
I work my ass off and I’m proud of my efforts and contributions to Delaware, including those within the GOP.
Fair point, I get what you’re saying, John. But, and be honest now, what has changed with McCain over the last 10 years?
And do you see McCain’s lead a repudiation of the Bush Base (which is Mitt’s market) and a last gasp by center-righters to take back the party?
Seriously John, during the general election people are in the voting booth and they’re gonna think “Hey! Those lousy Dems didn’t seat our delagates, so I’m voting McCain!”
Possible, though highly doubtful…more likely Wishful Thinking.
It’s not like HRC or Obama are not going to campaign in FL and MI come the fall….
“And do you see McCain’s lead a repudiation of the Bush Base (which is Mitt’s market) and a last gasp by center-righters to take back the party?”
Maybe, but I think there’s also a little bit of “it’s his turn”, which by the way does scare me, because I don’t want to repeat ’96
I also think McCain’s created a “new” fault in 08, the illegal immigration issue.
However, the younger voters are showing up in your primary, so I think the first point I made above is being reflected in the results we’re seeing now on the GOP side.
FSP: I guess that shows you exactly how worthless most national pundits are.
In reality, the Florida delegations will almost certainly be seated now that Edwards is out of the race; a brokered convention is the only way a floor fight would have ensued.
I really don’t know Florida politics and don’t care to, but Crist’s “strength” is most likely as illusory as the importance of any other endorsement. If you’re counting on people so dumb that they can’t make up their own minds so they’ll follow the lead of Charlie Crist (or Ed Rendell or whomever), good luck.
I wouldn’t make any bets on Florida at this point, but get back to me in about October. For people to be making bold predictions about how Floridians will vote 10 months from now based on the Democrats failing to campaign there strikes me as absurdly overconfident. That JF is the one making these predictions makes me question his judgment. From you, of course, I’ve come to expect party loyalty to trump frankness on these blogs; should I learn to expect the same from John as well?
““Hey! Those lousy Dems didn’t seat our delagates, so I’m voting McCain!””
VC- allow me to clarify my point, I don’t think I did a good job earlier.
If OBAMA wins, then yes, I do think your quote above will apply. People don’t like being told their vote shouldn’t count.
I’m told that “campaigns” will begin shortly to have tose delegates count. Therefore this issue didn’t die in Jan, it will be alive all summer.
They WILL remember.
“From you, of course, I’ve come to expect party loyalty to trump frankness on these blogs; should I learn to expect the same from John as well?”
Aren’t we also doing this to enlighten ourselves on all possible viewpoints or partisan positions.
I am a Republican and share my views from that angle Al. That’s what makes this fun.
But if you want us to take our shirts off and we’re all skins, then make sure you leave us some girls on our team 🙂
Those delegates will certainly be contested, we can agree on that. Hopefully it won’t matter after Tuesday….but I doubt it.
Al — I’ll keep it short.
Crist’s strength is institutional. It’s campaign infrastructure.
The point about the snub is that the candidates haven’t campaigned there, not that the voters will be ticked off about the delegates. The GOP candidates swarmed the state, giving the voters there an early and thorough look at them. The Dems did not.
The combination of those two things gives the GOP an advantage in Florida.
Who knows what’s going to happen in Florida. It’s either:
Familiarity breeds contempt, or…
Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
Claiming an advantage at this point is just spin.
So which tax raising, spendthrift, pro-illegal immigration liberal do you vote for, Clinton or McCain?
Thank you, Pandora, my point made succinct.
John, I’ll take it, then, that nothing you say should be taken as anything but spin.
This election can;t be about winning by one vote in the electoral college. I don’t think the country can take another 8 years of what we’ve just gone through.
On the Dem side, Hillary is running the electoral college game. Oabam is trying to run the table. Both R’s know that winning by one vote in the elcetoral college is their only chance.