After the Dana Long incident, I warned Republicans against triumphalism, indicating to them that they better have clean hands when it comes to this election. While this is not necessarily directly analogous, indeed I would say this is worse, the Democratic Party has filed a complaint with the Elections Commissioner over multiple campaign finance violations by state Republican organizations. Come inside for the full release….
Really, this is just…
First off, Chris Coons never said or tweeted “Stop freaking out about America’s single Ebola death.” It was the title of an article he linked to. But deception and lies are to be expected when we are dealing with Republicans. Second, even if he did say it or tweet it, Chris Coons is right, which is why is linked to that article. There is no outbreak of Ebola in the United States, no matter how much fear mongering the media and the Republicans engage in. Indeed, this ad is an hysterical attempt to make you scared of something, and then blame Chris Coons for it. Hence the allegation that being a chairman of a sub-committee on Africa in the Senate gives Senator Coons the power to stop Ebola!
That is just rich, coming from a Republican such as Kevin Wade. Let’s pretend for a moment that being a chairman of a sub-committee on Africa did empower a Senator with God-like powers to stop a virus in its tracks. Kevin Wade, as a Republican, would not have any interest in using that power to help the people of Africa. He would cut funding for scientific research the first chance he got. Hell, he would not even consider sitting on a sub-committee on Africa.
But really, I am spending too much rebutting this fearmonger of an ad, and what we should be doing is condemning Kevin Wade. I call on Charlie Copeland and John Fluharty to condemn their candidate’s fearmongering and see to it that Mr. Wade apologizes to the people of Delaware for it.
“Democratic efforts to turn out the young and nonwhite voters who sat out the 2010 midterm elections appear to be paying off in several Senate battleground states. More than 20 percent of the nearly three million votes already tabulated in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa have come from people who did not vote in the last midterm election,” according to an analysis of early-voting data by The Upshot.
I have felt all along that this election was not going to play out according to the normal media’s Republican Landslide/Obama/Democrats Repudiated narrative. The reason why is 1) the Democrats were going to do a presidential level GOTV operation to make up for the embarrassing loss in 2010, and 2) like in 1998, I felt like there was going to be GOP overreach and a pushback from the public. In 1998, the result of that was the Dems breaking even in the Senate and winning 5 seats in the House. In 2014, it will be the Dems holding onto the Senate. I will be releasing my full predictions of how the Dems will do that on Monday.
Come inside for more polls…
El Som and I have posted our predictions. And we vary wildly from each other on a few key races. Where do our beloved readers and commenters stand? If you want, please post your predictions below in the comments from the following races. The House and Senate races I selected are the ones that are most competitive.
US Senator–Coons v. Wade
US Rep–Carney v. Izzo
Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler
AG–Denn v. Kittila
Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner
6th SD–Snyder-Hall v. Lopez
10th SD–Hall-Long v. Marino
17th SD–Bushweller v. Warfield
18th SD–Emory v. Simpson
21st SD–Venables v. Richardson
4th RD–Brady v. Keesler
9th RD–Hortiz v. Hensley
10th RD–Matthews v. Travis
11th RD–Newlin v. Spiegelman
15th RD–Longhurst v. Lenzini
20th RD–Mayor v. Smyk
22nd RD–Mackenzie v. Miro v. Newton
29th RD–Paradee v. Kramer
30th RD–Gallo v. Outten
31st RD–Lynn v. Chick
37th RD–Rappa v. Briggs King
41st RD–Atkins v. Collins
With all the recent talk about how the Republicans want to “fix” the economy by cutting taxes, I feel the need to reintroduce everyone with my standing bet.
Sexual assault is serious and traumatic for its survivors — and there is no comparison to paying taxes. Insisting on that comparison is certainly callous and certainly stupid. Two things that may, in fact, be habit with Rep. Smyk. He needs to apologize (and stop chasing down people he thinks are responsible for circulating this) and he needs to apologize now. Please sign this petition that calls upon Smyk to apologize for his stupid and offensive use of the word “rape” in trying to defend corporate interests.
Then, make sure you go vote for Marie Mayor, who will certainly respect and represent her constituents better than this.
The guy who wants to turn Medicare and Medicaid into a voucher system is thinking about running for President
FSM does not love me enough to allow Paul Ryan to be the GOP nominee.
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) indicated in an interview published Thursday that he is open to a presidential run, saying he does not see himself as a House “lifer.”
Ryan said he will make his decision next year. “I’m not in a rush,” he told The Washington Post. “My way is to do the job at hand, do it well, and not worry about strategizing how I can do better than this guy or that guy in New Hampshire. I’m not in a place where I have to scratch and claw to get my name out there. Why do I need to blow money on that? I’ll line it all up next year and do my long list of pros and cons, this and that.”
I haven’t spoken to anyone who thinks that this significantly changes the dynamics of the race. Here is a round-up of statements that pretty much put this thing to bed.
The Bethany Hall-Long apology:
“My husband is the man depicted in the video. The video shows him removing a handful of signs this morning. He turned them over to the Democratic Party and asked that they be returned to the Republican Party about six hours after they were taken up,” she said. “Sadly, this race has become tough and personal. My husband is my high school sweetheart and he loves me very much. I was not aware that he had allowed his frustration over the campaign attacks to get the better of him. Of course I’m disappointed and wish that it had not happened.”
Man, you get Republicans into a room with their donors and supporters and they really open up about their plans. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is inexplicably considering a presidential bid for reasons passing any human understanding, said earlier this month in such a private gathering that “white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my presidency.”
I’m sure, Senator. I’m sure.
Much like my predictions yesterday for all the state races, I will also predict all of the U.S. Senate races as well. Look for that on Monday. Here are some of the latest polls, inside…
Everyone knows who the President of the United States. But after that, it’s a crap shoot. A Jimmy Kimmel (I think, maybe it was a Jimmy Fallon skit) revealed that some people in New York don’t know who Joe Biden is. And we know moving down the electoral ladder, from governor to U.S. Senator to your representative in Congress to your state Senators and Representatives and your local councilpeople, that the smaller and more local a position, the less likely it is that people are going to know who they are. So the people who have the most power to affect your daily and everyday life, i.e. your county and city councilmen and women, your state representatives and senators, are strangers to you. But everyone knows Obama.
As a local political blog, we strive to keep you informed as to who the most important politicians to you are. But even we fail at that sometimes. National political news is easier to follow, because you know the players and the players want to be known, and you have many people wanting to tell you the story. If you want to follow local politics, your choices are limited, hard to find, and often lacking much substance. And its hard to follow events because the players are lesser known to you.
So to help in that, let’s start in talking about and predicting all of the offices up and down the ballot. And as you see below, I have included all the statewide and county level Row offices, even though I think some of them should not be elected offices (yeah, we shouldn’t be electing sheriffs, treasurers, recorders of deeds or wills, at any level of government).
Now, El Somnambulo has already posted his predictions for you. And he, along with our illustrious founder, Jason330, are very pessimistic, in their attitude, and in some of their predictions. I am a little more optimistic and realistic.
Here is the press release. Two things. 1) The sign taker in the video says something about the fact that the signs don’t include a candidate’s name. I don’t know enough about sign law to know if that is exculpatory. 2) I feel like the use of “Democrat Party” was an homage to my recent uptake of that shitty usage.
Some moderateish GOP Senator (who is actually a flaming conservative mouth breather but in today’s environment, he appears sane standing next to the likes of tea party), like Rob Portman, said recently that, for the GOP to win in 2016, it will have to govern between 2014 and 2016. There is just a little problem with that. Governing in a divided government means compromise with the President of the United States, unless of course your party controls enough seats to have veto-proof majorities. Even the rosiest scenario does not predict that for the GOP. And the GOP cannot impeach President Obama and Vice President Biden, for that will guarantee Democratic victory in 2016 everywhere, in every office, up and down the ballot. And yet, they are campaigning about stopping Obama if they should win the majority. You cannot stop Obama and then compromise with him.
First Read says Republicans have two big challenges to governing if they win control of both the House and Senate next week.
“One, after portraying Obama as either incompetent, ruthless, or both, how do Republicans sell any kind of deal with Obama back to their base? That’s the problem when your message, especially on the campaign trail, is entirely against the president. It makes cutting deals with him AFTER the election more difficult. Two, to pass legislation in the Senate, Mitch McConnell and Republicans will need to get 60 votes — and that means placating the GOP conservatives (including those running for president next year), the GOP moderates (Susan Collins and the folks up for re-election in 2016 like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, etc.), as well as centrist Democrats (Joe Manchin, Angus King, etc.). That won’t be an easy task.”
And come inside for the Governor polls I promised yesterday…
“How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up.”
“This tale of two different midterm elections — not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match up — also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).”
We have a lot of Senate polls here today, and tons of Governor polls tomorrow…
The tough races are really tough, the easy races are really easy. I know I’m not running the table, but I don’t know where I’ll falter. I just know that I will. If there’s a unifying theme, I think it’s that D’s will struggle in Delaware more than usual, which is exactly what I expect to happen nationwide. Hope I’m wrong. These predictions are also going up a week out, and there’s plenty of movement in some of the races.
With that depressing, but not hopeless, forecast out of the way, here we go:
United States Senate: Chris Coons over Kevin Wade, 58-40%, with Andrew Groff of the Green Party at 2%. I’ll be among the 2 percenters.
US Representative: This provides the true measure of how many people will vote Republican no matter what. Does Rose Izzo get over 30%? I’m going Carney 67%, Izzo 29%, with the Green and Libertarian candidates maybe getting 4%. For me, it’ll be August in November.
Attorney General: Matt Denn will win, does he break 60%?
Lots of buying and selling action in the trading markets since my last update. Who has crashed and who still has a little upside potential? Let’s take a look.
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 (0.98) – Kevin Wade 0.01 (0.02)
House: John Carney 0.95 (0.99) – Rose Izzo 0.01 (0.01) Bernie August 0.04 (n/a)
Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.95 (0.93) – Ted Kittila 0.05 (0.07)
Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.00 (0.39) – Sean Barney 0.48 (0.37) – Ken Simpler 0.48(0.17) – Sher Valenzuela 0.00
Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.48(0.43) – Tom Wagner 0.48 (0.47)
You could have made some money in the Treasurers race. Shorting Flowers at 0.40 and taking a long position in Simpler at 0.15 was the winning move.
As it stands now, other than simply guessing the Treasurer and Auditors races and winning the coin flip, I don’t see any profitable moves left. Simpler, for example, appears to be at his max trading value. Smart traders will probably be taking their Simpler profits off the table. But hey, this is politics so do “smart traders” exist? For instance, somebody placed some sentimental money on Bernie August, bidding him up to 0.04.
(Okay, it was me. There is still a week to go. Carney could still Bill Roth it.)
E.J. Dionne Jr. on some underappreciated facts about the 2014 Midterms:
Underappreciated fact No. 1: The number of Democratic seats that are not in play this year.
In planning its effort to take control of the Senate, Republicans shrewdly launched challenges to Democrats in states that would not automatically be on a GOP target list. “Broadening the map” is wise when you’re in a strong position. Two of the states on that extended list, Colorado and Iowa, have paid off for Republicans. [...] Just as striking is how many Democrats seem to have nailed down races the Republicans had once hoped to make competitive. This has narrowed the GOP’s path to a majority. Among them: Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Rep. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is likely to retain Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is also polling well, though he was always favored against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is in a tougher race with former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, but she has led most of the way.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 2: How important economic issues have been in shoring up the party’s incumbents and in giving life to Democratic challengers in Georgia, Kentucky and (a much longer shot) South Dakota. [E]ndangered Democrats are campaigning on a different set of national concerns related to economic worries. These include equal pay for women, relief for student loan recipients and a minimum-wage increase. Several Democrats, including Shaheen and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, have made an issue of opposing the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 3: Given Obama’s low approval ratings, Republicans could have been running away with this thing. They’re not, because they look more extreme and out of touch than they did four years ago.
What do you do if you are a lazy do-nothing auditor who has been sucking on the government teet for 25 years, and someone asks to see your schedule? You try to wrap yourself in an expensive FOIA estimate and hope the request goes away. That was Wagner’s plan when Brenda Mayrack asked to see his schedule to check up on why his office has been chronically understaffed.
From Mayracks FB page:
* Is the State Auditor’s Office attending local job fairs? After not seeing the office on the list of attendees at a University of Delaware job fair for accounting students, we filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the State Auditor’s schedule: “For the year 2014, the public schedule of R. Thomas Wagner, Jr., including all meetings and public events.” The response from his office: “In order to construct information in response to request below and based what we have available in the Office, I estimate it will run approximately $1,191.” And that’s the cost for sending it by email so we didn’t incur any copying or mailing fees.